Vladimir Putin’s ‘real’ red line and Joe Biden’s incremental boldness on Ukraine; do the two meet?

See update for June 1, 2023, at end of post.


A couple days ago, I noted an apparent contradiction between Patrick Tucker “sens[ing] that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization might well choose to intervene in Ukraine”[1] and Julia Ioffe “still pointing at ‘Washington’s reddest of red lines: not getting into a hot conflict with Russia.’”[2] I thought Ioffe was more likely right.[3]

But a strict binary between intervention and non-intervention is not be an appropriate way of looking at this. For one thing, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been supplying increasingly powerful arms to Ukraine. For another, despite threats all the way to and including nuclear saber-rattling, Russia has failed to substantively respond to any of these escalations, making the Biden administration increasingly confident that it can supply further weaponry. It’s been an incremental approach, and it has been irritating folks[4] like me who have thought Putin’s logic drives him inevitably and inexorably to empire beyond Ukraine as well as to nuclear war, and therefore that we should just get on with it.[5]

Meanwhile, dovetailing with Tucker’s reporting, Svitlana Morenets claims, apparently with justification,[6] that nations inside and outside Russia—itself already an empire[7]—are plotting a carve-up. Japan, pushing a longstanding grievance for example, wants the Kuril Islands back; China claims Russia’s far east and parts of Siberia; Poland is rumbling about Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea; and ethnic minorities within Russia are making noises about how they’d like their nations, swallowed long ago, back.[8] If you think that bear next to you can defend itself, you’re a lot less likely to contemplate carving it with that machete you packed just for this occasion.

Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and even Ukraine could also stake interests in vying for Russian lands. Russian fighters infiltrating the Belgorod region under the Ukrainian flag served as a reminder to Putin that others could also reclaim their “primordial territories”. Kyiv aims to restore its 1991 borders and end the war.[9]

This kind of talk is surely premature, but it’s clear that Putin risks not only a conventional defeat in Ukraine, but claims on Russian territory itself.[10] Not only would Putin not be the “gatherer of Russian lands,” he would face losing territory because he so plainly lacks a combat-ready military. Suddenly, the risk Putin will use nuclear weapons is not limited to a single conflict which the west can constrain (by delaying weapons deliveries). The question of just how far the west can push looms ever larger[11] as Putin’s military continues mostly to flail in Ukraine and his weakness is ever further exposed,[12] as even Putin must be considering what to do about all those claims on Russian territory when he must eventually realize his military cannot possibly defend it.[13]

Russia has devalued its red lines so many times by saying certain things would be unacceptable and then doing nothing when they happen. The problem is that we don’t know the actual red line. It’s in one person’s head, and it can change from one day to the next.[14]

What we have not seen—I think because Putin is desperate not to show it—is the degree to which desperation drives his decision-making. Yevgeny Prigozhin has been pushing on Kremlin red lines as well—indeed, the expectation seems pretty much to be that he may well launch a coup against Putin—and, again, Putin does nothing.[15]

As I finish my morning coffee, it seems to me that Putin faces the same problem as at the start of the war. To say he spectacularly miscalculated Ukraine’s ability and determination to resist his invasion, to say his military has proven itself utterly unprepared, is still woefully to understate his dilemma. He fancied himself an emperor; he has exposed himself as anything but[16] and now the ambitious—there are always people with ambition—are plotting.[17] Having declared Ukraine existential,[18] he cannot win, he dare not lose, and therefore this cannot end well.[19]

For NATO, there is a difference between supplying weapons and supplying troops. My feeling is that Tucker[20] underestimates that difference. Biden may indeed be gradually growing bolder.[21] But Russia’s nuclear arsenal hasn’t failed Putin yet and the assumption has to be that the danger he’ll use it only increases as he grows more desperate.

The question—an intensely psychological question—then, is where Putin’s real red line, the point at which he goes nuclear,[22] intersects first with Russian elites’ tolerance for Putin’s failure;[23] second, with Biden’s boldness;[24] and third, with old foes claiming old territory back;[25] and fourth, with whether somebody stops before they reach it.


Update, June 1, 2023: I wrote the original version of this post before seeing Svitlana Morenets’ suggestion that there’s an appetite for Russian territory it is plainly unprepared to defend.[26] It seemed bold, but her op-ed seemed to me to require an update here. A-a-a-n-n-d, guess what? Morenets’ suggestion is actually not all that far-fetched at all.[27] My original conclusion, I think, held up well, but even it was best revised. It’s a complicated picture, with four lines of force: If they meet in sufficient numbers (whatever those are), we might have Putin launching nuclear weapons as a sort of “Hail, Mary!” pass, in which the quarterback throws the ball a long ways, praying—hence the name of the pass—one of their guys will be there to catch it. If the odds on that seem kinda long, Putin’s are probably longer, as no one can know what he’ll actually accomplish except perhaps—only perhaps—to destabilize the situation. Perhaps, and this is what I think when I hear that Putin often seeks to destabilize adverse situations, if you shake the tree, and it (still) has nuts that are ready to fall, that some will. Putin may not be able to anticipate what will shake out, but he can certainly—if he has (oops!) agile forces—hope to seize any opportunity that does come his way.

Anyway, all this demanded substantive revisions to the original text. Surprisingly, though, I still land pretty close to where I was, even if I had to rewrite the conclusion for coherence with the text I had introduced in this update.

  1. [1]Patrick Tucker, “Estonia Will Ask For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO,” Defense One, May 30, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/estonia-will-ask-clearer-path-ukraine-join-nato/386879/
  2. [2]Julia Ioffe, “Yalta 2023: Planning for Life After the Russian Invasion,” Puck, May 30, 2023, https://puck.news/yalta-2023-planning-for-life-after-the-russian-invasion/
  3. [3]David Benfell, “Vladimir Putin must surely now be getting desperate,” Irregular Bullshit, May 30, 2023, https://disunitedstates.com/2023/05/30/vladimir-putin-must-surely-now-be-getting-desperate/
  4. [4]John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, “Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines,” Washington Post, June 1, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/
  5. [5]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, November 16, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/; David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, January 24, 2023, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/
  6. [6]James Kilner, “Russian MP accuses Poland of planning to take Kaliningrad back from Moscow,” Telegraph, March 26, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/russian-mp-accuses-poland-planning-take-kaliningrad-back-moscow/; Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country; Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/; Tom Mutch, “Soldiers Make Secret Pact to ‘Destroy’ Putin’s Empire From Within,” Daily Beast, April 9, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fighters-make-war-pact-with-ukrainian-troops-to-fight-vladimir-putin; Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod
  7. [7]Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country
  8. [8]James Kilner, “Russian MP accuses Poland of planning to take Kaliningrad back from Moscow,” Telegraph, March 26, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/russian-mp-accuses-poland-planning-take-kaliningrad-back-moscow/; Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country; Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/; Tom Mutch, “Soldiers Make Secret Pact to ‘Destroy’ Putin’s Empire From Within,” Daily Beast, April 9, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fighters-make-war-pact-with-ukrainian-troops-to-fight-vladimir-putin; Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod
  9. [9]Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/
  10. [10]James Kilner, “Russian MP accuses Poland of planning to take Kaliningrad back from Moscow,” Telegraph, March 26, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/russian-mp-accuses-poland-planning-take-kaliningrad-back-moscow/; Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country; Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/; Tom Mutch, “Soldiers Make Secret Pact to ‘Destroy’ Putin’s Empire From Within,” Daily Beast, April 9, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fighters-make-war-pact-with-ukrainian-troops-to-fight-vladimir-putin; Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod
  11. [11]John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, “Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines,” Washington Post, June 1, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/
  12. [12]David Benfell, “If Vladimir Putin doesn’t make sense, he doesn’t make sense, and he cannot last,” Not Housebroken, May 17, 2023, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/10/10/if-vladimir-putin-doesnt-make-sense-he-doesnt-make-sense-and-he-cannot-last/
  13. [13]James Kilner, “Russian MP accuses Poland of planning to take Kaliningrad back from Moscow,” Telegraph, March 26, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/russian-mp-accuses-poland-planning-take-kaliningrad-back-moscow/; Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country; Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/; Tom Mutch, “Soldiers Make Secret Pact to ‘Destroy’ Putin’s Empire From Within,” Daily Beast, April 9, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fighters-make-war-pact-with-ukrainian-troops-to-fight-vladimir-putin; Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod
  14. [14]Maxim Samorukov, quoted in John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, “Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines,” Washington Post, June 1, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/
  15. [15]Julian Borger, “Wagner chief warns of revolution and says 20,000 fighters killed in Bakhmut,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/wagner-head-warns-of-revolution-after-claiming-20000-fighters-killed-in-bakhmut; Shane Harris and Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says,” Washington Post, May 15, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/; Maria Katamadze, “Can Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin challenge Putin?” Deutschewelle, February 19, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/can-wagner-head-yevgeny-prigozhin-challenge-putin/a-64744266; Dan Ladden-Hall, “Prigozhin Says Jealous Kremlin Deliberately Stopped Wagner Taking Bakhmut,” March 16, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/prigozhin-says-jealous-kremlin-deliberately-stopped-wagner-taking-bakhmut; Brad Lendon, Josh Pennington, and Uliana Pavlova, “Wagner chief says his forces are dying as Russia’s military leaders ‘sit like fat cats,’” CNN, May 5, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/europe/wagner-military-group-prigozhin-ammunition-tirade-intl-hnk-ml/index.html; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Wagner Chief Prigozhin Says Russia’s Plan To ‘Demilitarize’ Ukraine Has Failed,” May 24, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-wagner-prigozhin-failure/32425650.html; Allan Woods, “Why Vladimir Putin isn’t shutting down the outspoken ‘thug’ running the Wagner Group,” Toronto Star, May 15, 2023, https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2023/05/15/why-vladimir-putin-isnt-shutting-down-the-outspoken-thug-running-the-wagner-group.html
  16. [16]Robyn Dixon and Catherine Belton, “Putin, czar with no empire, needs military victory for his own survival,” Washington Post, February 19, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/20/putin-czar-with-no-empire-needs-military-victory-his-own-survival/; Fiona Hill and Angela Stent, “The Kremlin’s Grand Delusions,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/kremlins-grand-delusions; Eric Levitz, “Ukraine Is a War Without Endgame,” New York, March 11, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/ukraine-is-a-war-without-endgame.html; Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/; Reuters, “Hailing Peter the Great, Putin draws parallel with mission to ‘return’ Russian lands,” June 9, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hailing-peter-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-return-russian-lands-2022-06-09/; Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn; Pjotr Sauer and Andrew Roth, “Putin prepares Russia for ‘forever war’ with west as Ukraine invasion stalls,” Guardian, March 28, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/putin-prepares-russia-for-forever-war-with-west-as-ukraine-invasion-stalls; Patrick Tucker, “Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say,” Defense One, May 4, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/without-new-draft-russian-offensive-operations-are-over-us-intel-chiefs-say/386003/
  17. [17]Vazha Tavberidze, “Interview: The ‘War Of Clans For Putin’s Throne Has Begun,’” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 24, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html
  18. [18]Robyn Dixon, “Russia moves toward annexing Ukraine regions in a major escalation,” Washington Post, September 20, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/20/russia-referendum-annexation-luhansk-donetsk-kherson-ukraine/; Christian Esch et al., “Berlin and Washington Play Out Nuclear Scenarios,” Spiegel, October 7, 2022, https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/berlin-and-washington-play-out-scenarios-of-a-nuclear-strike-by-putin-a-ecbc1772-8526-4ce1-ae0d-7270309df54e; Julia Ioffe, “Will Putin Get His World War III?” Puck News, February 22, 2022, https://puck.news/will-putin-get-his-world-war-iii/; Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s New Iron Curtain,” Puck News, February 24, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-new-iron-curtain/; Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/; Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/; Bruno Maçães, “‘Russia cannot afford to lose, so we need a kind of a victory’: Sergey Karaganov on what Putin wants,” New Statesman, April 2, 2022, https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants; Luke McGee and Claire Calzonetti, “Putin spokesman refuses to rule out use of nuclear weapons if Russia faced an ‘existential threat,’” CNN, March 22, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europe/amanpour-peskov-interview-ukraine-intl/index.html; Greg Miller et al., “Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds,” Washington Post, October 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/; Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss, “Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 12, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/12/ukraine-putin-s-unfinished-business-pub-85771; Liz Sly, “Russia’s annexation puts world ‘two or three steps away’ from nuclear war,” Washington Post, October 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/
  19. [19]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, November 16, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/; David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, January 24, 2023, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/
  20. [20]Patrick Tucker, “Estonia Will Ask For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO,” Defense One, May 30, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/estonia-will-ask-clearer-path-ukraine-join-nato/386879/
  21. [21]John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, “Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines,” Washington Post, June 1, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/
  22. [22]John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, “Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines,” Washington Post, June 1, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/
  23. [23]Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Oligarchs Fall in Line,” Puck, February 28, 2023, https://puck.news/putins-oligarchs-fall-in-line/; Bruno Maçães, “‘Russia cannot afford to lose, so we need a kind of a victory’: Sergey Karaganov on what Putin wants,” New Statesman, April 2, 2022, https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants; Ishaan Tharoor, “Putin retreats deeper into his labyrinth,” Washington Post, March 7, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/03/07/putin-ukraine-war-talks-delusions/; Vazha Tavberidze, “Interview: The ‘War Of Clans For Putin’s Throne Has Begun,’” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 24, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html
  24. [24]John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, “Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines,” Washington Post, June 1, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/01/ukraine-f-16s-biden-russia-escalation/
  25. [25]James Kilner, “Russian MP accuses Poland of planning to take Kaliningrad back from Moscow,” Telegraph, March 26, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/russian-mp-accuses-poland-planning-take-kaliningrad-back-moscow/; Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country; Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/; Tom Mutch, “Soldiers Make Secret Pact to ‘Destroy’ Putin’s Empire From Within,” Daily Beast, April 9, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fighters-make-war-pact-with-ukrainian-troops-to-fight-vladimir-putin; Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod
  26. [26]Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/
  27. [27]James Kilner, “Russian MP accuses Poland of planning to take Kaliningrad back from Moscow,” Telegraph, March 26, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/russian-mp-accuses-poland-planning-take-kaliningrad-back-moscow/; Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country; Svitlana Morenets, “Russia may be devoured by its neighbours,” Telegraph, May 31, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/31/russia-may-be-devoured-by-its-neighbours/; Tom Mutch, “Soldiers Make Secret Pact to ‘Destroy’ Putin’s Empire From Within,” Daily Beast, April 9, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fighters-make-war-pact-with-ukrainian-troops-to-fight-vladimir-putin; Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod

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