According to Andrew Prokop at Vox, it’s now time to start taking polls seriously. And, it seems this spells trouble for Donald Trump.[1]
But even following Prokop’s logic, his conclusion that Donald Trump is in trouble in the polls is a bit less meaningful than he makes it seem. First, while polls allegedly become more meaningful at this point in the campaign, they’re barely on the cusp of doing so. Which means they’re still in that fuzzy area between alleged meaninglessness and alleged meaningfulness. But second, as Prokop noted, there’s still much that can happen.[2] And in a campaign season as unusual as this one, that introduces a great deal more uncertainty. Pundits have been wrong a lot more often this time and we probably can expect that they will continue to be so. Read more
- [1]Andrew Prokop, “Donald Trump has collapsed in general election polls,” Vox, March 31, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/3/31/11336884/donald-trump-polls-winning↩
- [2]Andrew Prokop, “Donald Trump has collapsed in general election polls,” Vox, March 31, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/3/31/11336884/donald-trump-polls-winning↩