But it seems there is an end even for black holes as Hawking radiation ever so slowly bleeds away the matter they contain.^[1] And such seems to be happening albeit much more dramatically for the relatively low mass black hole of Donald Trump.

First, his war on migrants was a war on cities, too much even for many who support mass deportation. Second, as the Jeffrey Epstein saga drags on, it is ever more apparent that the Trump administration has something, perhaps a lot, to hide. Third, apparently at Binyamin Netanyahu’s behest, he launched and very much appears to have lost a mostly unwanted war on Iran.^[2]

Then he depicted himself as Jesus in an artificial idiocy-generated image and attacked Pope Leo XIV for opposing his war on Iran.^[3] When Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—Trump’s only remaining ally within the European Union—came to the Pope’s defense, Trump turned on her.^[4]

There’s no logic to be seen here and it’s little wonder that there is some bipartisan support for invoking the 25^thamendment.^[5]

The damage to the white Christian nationalist coalition that Trump assembled in his first term from the seven tendencies of conservatism that I had identified in my dissertation^[6] may take a while to repair.

First, Trump overstepped on unauthorized migration, sweeping up legal residents and even U.S. citizens. Multiple people have died at the hands of Department of Homeland Security agents. Democrats are holding up funding for the DHS to try to rein in those excesses. The end here will surely be a much less massive deportation than the Trump administration promised, disappointing many authoritarian populists, paleoconservatives, neoconservatives, social conservatives, and traditionalist conservatives. Second, Trump as probable pedophile repulses many people across the board. Third, Trump’s war on Iran was opposed by many white Christian nationalists, including authoritarian populists, paleoconservatives, capitalist libertarians, and—almost certainly—traditionalist conservatives, but supported by neoconservatives for whom Israel—and Netanyahu in particular—can do no wrong.

When Pope Leo condemned the Iran war, he said what a lot of folks wanted to hear (I certainly have no criticism of these words). In criticizing Leo, Trump sounds much more like a sore loser than the winner Trump’s ego demands he be—and isn’t. Indeed, his response to all of these and other setbacks has been to double down, even as it becomes ever more apparent he cannot prevail, reinforcing his developing image as a loser.

Trump seems unable to course correct. I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot more Hawking radiation before he leaves office.

^[1] Nola Taylor Redd, “The Beginning to the End of the Universe: How black holes die,” Astronomy, January 3, 2026, https://www.astronomy.com/science/the-beginning-to-the-end-of-the-universe-how-black-holes-die/

^[2] Jennifer Rubin, “Words & Phrases,” Contrarian, April 14, 2026, https://www.contrariannews.org/p/words-and-phrases-8d1

^[3] Christian Paz in Cameron Peters to Today, Explained list, “The problem with AI Trump Jesus,” Vox, April 14, 2026, https://www.vox.com/pages/today-explained-newsletter-signup; Ali Walker, “Pope Leo says Trump won’t silence him as US-Vatican feud erupts over Iran, Politico, April 13, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/pope-leo-donald-trump-wont-silence-him-us-vatican-feud-over-iran/

^[4] Hannah Roberts, “Trump turns against ‘unacceptable’ Meloni,” Politico, April 14, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-turns-against-unacceptable-meloni-says-he-was-wrong-about-her/

^[5] Henry Cuellar, “Support for the Removal of Donald J. Trump from Office,” n.d., https://cuellar.house.gov/uploadedfiles/support_for_the_removal_of_donald_j._trump_from_office.pdf

^[6] David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).

I should preface what I’m about to say by noting I grew up during the Cold War, when “Christian” (more precisely, Protestant^[1]) capitalism was pitted against a “godless communist” (more accurately, authoritarian socialist) monolith in Moscow (somehow conflating China with the Soviet Union), when all-out nuclear war was an ever-present possibility, and indeed, when mutually assured destruction was unironically understood by its acronym MAD. It was “good” versus “evil,” every bit as stupidly hierarchically invidiously monistic as it sounds.

I’m hearing that word “armageddon” again,^[2] in reference to Donald Trump’s vulgar threats against Iranian bridges and power plants^[3] and that “a ‘whole civilization will die tonight.’”^[4] And I’ve seen a concern that Trump may indeed go nuclear,^[5] though the White House now denies this.^[6] (I distrust anything emanating from this administration.)

It is certainly something to contemplate when a war started first, because Binyamin Netanyahu wanted it; second, because Donald Trump needed a distraction from the Jeffrey Epstein files; and third, because war is Pete Hegseth’s idea of a hard-on, may result in the first use of nuclear weapons since the U.S. dropped atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II.

I’m not religious but my thoughts and prayers are for the Iranian people—and for anybody downwind.

Update, April 8, 2026: The worst has not happened yet. “American B-52 bombers were reported to be en route to Iran before the [two-week] ceasefire agreement was announced.”^[7] It opens the Strait of Hormuz and pauses U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran—but not Lebanon. Negotiations are supposedly to begin on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the basis of an Iranian 10-point plan^[8] which “[Donald] Trump had earlier rejected . . . as ‘not good enough.’”^[9]

This comes as a report emerges that Pete Hegseth has been misleading Trump about the war, which has not conformed to Hegseth’s rosy claims.^[10] Between this and Trump’s acceptance of an Iranian plan as a basis for negotiation, I infer that Iran has the upper hand and that I would not want to be in Hegseth’s position right now—toxic masculinity only gets one so far and often pushes the male beyond that limit, sometimes with catastrophic consequences.

Update, April 9, 2026: It seems there are some discrepancies between what Iran has agreed to and what the U.S. has agreed to. Here’s Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism:

“The press is amplifying market-soothing Trump claims that he has cemented a ceasefire ‘deal’ with Iran and is on a path to a resolution of the war. But there are serious differences between what Iran has said it has agreed to, which is a US capitulation. The only concession Iran appears to have made is to somewhat reduce its Strait of Hormuz transit fee. By contrast, Trump depicts the two week ceasefire as a pause in his threat to end Iran as a civilization over a four-hour period, contingent on Iran fully opening the Strait…to which Iran has not agreed.

“In addition, the Iran terms call for all hostile action to end, including of Israel against Lebanon. But Israel was not a party to this (non-convergent) agreement and is making minimally compliant noises while also reaffirming its intent to continue ethnic cleansing in Lebanon.”^[11]

It’s worth reading Smith’s post in full.

^[1] Richard Tarnas, Passion of the Western Mind (New York: Harmony, 1991).

^[2] Andrew McDonald, “TACO Tuesday?” Politico, April 7, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/taco-tuesday/; Nicholas Vinocur, “Trump’s Iran threats set EU on edge,” Politico, April 7, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/trumps-iran-threats-set-eu-on-edge/

^[3] Dan Rather, “Trump Unhinged,” Steady, April 6, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/trump-unhinged

^[4] Al Jazeera, “US denies nuclear plan as deadline on threat to Iran ‘civilisation’ looms,” April 7, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/us-denies-nuclear-plan-as-deadline-on-threat-to-iran-civilisation-looms; Gregory Svirnovskiy, “Trump threatens ‘whole civilization will die tonight’ ahead of Iran deadline,” Politico, April 7, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/07/trump-iran-deadline-threats-00861313

^[5] Al Jazeera, “US denies nuclear plan as deadline on threat to Iran ‘civilisation’ looms,” April 7, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/us-denies-nuclear-plan-as-deadline-on-threat-to-iran-civilisation-looms; Patrick Wintour, “A war of regression: how Trump bombed the US into a worse position with Iran,” Guardian, March 27, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/27/how-trump-bombed-us-into-worse-position-iran-strategic-failure

^[6] Al Jazeera, “US denies nuclear plan as deadline on threat to Iran ‘civilisation’ looms,” April 7, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/us-denies-nuclear-plan-as-deadline-on-threat-to-iran-civilisation-looms

^[7] Andrew Roth, “US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire as Tehran says it will reopen strait of Hormuz,” Guardian, April 8, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire

^[8] Dave Lawler and Barak Ravid, “U.S. and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire,” Axios, April 7, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/iran-2-week-ceasfire-trump-pakistan; Andrew Roth, “US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire as Tehran says it will reopen strait of Hormuz,” Guardian, April 8, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire; Jacob Wendler and Paul McLeary, “Trump announces Iran ceasefire ahead of 8 p.m. deadline,” Politico, April 7, 2026, Trump announces Iran ceasefire ahead of 8 p.m. deadline

^[9] Andrew Roth, “US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire as Tehran says it will reopen strait of Hormuz,” Guardian, April 8, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire

^[10] Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, “Pete Hegseth Is Misleading Trump and Us About Iran War,” New Republic, April 7, 2026, https://newrepublic.com/post/208737/pete-hegseth-misleading-donald-trump-iran

^[11] Yves Smith [Susan Webber], “Iran War: MSM Ceasefire Reporting Obscures Iran Agreeing to US Capitulation, Trump Depicting Different Deal; Israel Not a Party, States It Will Not Comply; Reason to Doubt Much Hormuz Traffic Increase Soon, Which Would Mean More Supply Pressure,” Naked Capitalism, April 8, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/iran-war-msm-ceasefire-reporting-obscures-iran-agreeing-to-us-capitulation-trump-depicting-different-deal-israel-not-a-party-states-it-will-not-comply-reason-to-doubt-much-hormuz-traffic-increase.html

Donald Trump claimed that he has had productive talks with Iran and is therefore delaying threatened strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days.^[1] Iran denied that any such talks have taken place and suggested that his “statements are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans.”^[2]

Trump then claimed “his envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, had engaged in talks with Iran, and that, ‘We’ve had very strong talks. Mr. Witkoff and Kushner had them. They went perfectly.’ He added, ‘I would say that if they carry through with that, it’ll end that problem, that conflict.’ Trump said there were ‘major points of agreement’ not only on access to the Strait of Hormuz but also on the Iranian nuclear program and the war in general.” Drop Site News’ source, an unnamed “senior Iranian official,” denies this as well.^[3]

All of which raises the question of whom the psychotic, psychopathic, and ragingly narcissistic Trump thinks “his envoys” are negotiating with, if anyone.

Speculation, from multiple outlets, is centering around the Iranian parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He denies it and there is good reason for skepticism, first, that Iran denies that any such talks are occurring; second, that any such talks “would need to be approved by new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council for them to have any legitimacy;”^[4] and third, this possibility entails a theocracy negotiating with “The Great Satan,” so aptly personified by Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu themselves.

It’s also very apparent that Trump’s and Netanyahu’s war on Iran is not going well, something else Trump refuses to acknowledge. After all, anyone with a brain would have told Trump and Netanyahu they were biting off more than they could chew.

We haven’t been seeing it so much in U.S. media, but the Times of Israel was reporting on casualties and destruction resulting from Iranian munitions penetrating Israeli defenses.^[5] And to peruse the news channels on Telegram has been to see a war that is only escalating.

Trump was threatening Iranian power stations,^[6] which seems an unlikely way to persuade Iranians to rise up against the regime, in a likely doomed effort to persuade that regime to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.^[7] Iranian citizens, indeed, are almost certainly suffering the most from this destructive war but I’m seeing almost no coverage of their plight.

All of which is to say that both sides have ample reason to negotiate.^[8]

My own guess—it seems I’m not alone^[9]—is that Trump is seeking an off-ramp. Trouble here is that I doubt—again, it seems I’m not alone^[10]—that Netanyahu, who has wanted this war for as long as anyone can remember, will go along. Another problem, Jennifer Rubin argues, is that Trump sped right past all the available off-ramps and now faces a situation now more akin to going over Niagara Falls.^[11]

The Hill raises the worrying prospect that “[o]n the flip side, it’s also possible that Trump is bluffing or playing for time to get more American forces to the region. The Wall Street Journal noted Monday afternoon that ‘thousands of U.S. Marines’ are due to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, the same day as Trump’s new five-day deadline.”^[12]

Obviously, I don’t know which it is. Given Trump’s likely dementia, it’s possible he doesn’t know which it is. One thing I’m certain of is that with Trump, we are not playing 12-dimensional chess. After all, he was stupid enough to get us into this war in the first place.

^[1] Donald Trump, “I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN . . . .” Truth Social, March 23, 2026, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116278232362967212

^[2] Mizan News Agency, “Iranian Foreign Ministry: There is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington . . . ,” X, trans. Google, March 23, 2026, https://x.com/MizanNewsAgency/status/2036052143501652206

^[3] Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain, “Iran Blasts Trump’s Claims of Direct Talks as “Fake News” Aimed at Manipulating Markets,” Drop Site News, March 23, 2026, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-blasts-trump-claims-direct-talks-false-market-manipulation

^[4] Sarah Shamim, “Is the US talking to Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and who is he?” Al Jazeera, March 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/is-the-us-talking-to-irans-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-and-who-is-he

^[5] Emanuel Fabian, Diana Bletter, and Nava Freiberg, “15 injured, one seriously, as Iranian cluster munitions impact in central Israel,” Times of Israel, March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/15-injured-one-seriously-as-iranian-cluster-munitions-impact-in-central-israel/; Times of Israel, “Almost 200 injured, 11 seriously, in Iranian missile strikes on southern cities of Arad, Dimona,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-100-injured-11-seriously-in-iranian-missile-strikes-on-southern-cities-of-arad-dimona/

^[6] Times of Israel, “48 hours: Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-irans-power-plants-if-strait-of-hormuz-remains-shut/

^[7] Times of Israel, “48 hours: Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” March 22, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-irans-power-plants-if-strait-of-hormuz-remains-shut/

^[8] Sarah Shamim, “Is the US talking to Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and who is he?” Al Jazeera, March 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/is-the-us-talking-to-irans-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-and-who-is-he

^[9] For example, Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/

^[10] For example, Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/

^[11] Jennifer Rubin, “Words & Phrases,” Contrarian, March 24, 2026, https://www.contrariannews.org/p/words-and-phrases-9dd

^[12] Niall Stanage, “Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran,” Hill, March 23, 2026, https://thehill.com/homenews/5797090-trump-iran-war-oil-prices-negotiations/

Certainly Donald Trump is likely psychotic and almost certainly a raging narcissist, but I’m inclined to think Medvedev is bluffing: Russia is already stretched thin with its war on Ukraine. Though Russia claims to be able to “completely” destroy the British Army with “two months of our work . . . using conventional methods,”^[2] and is testing its public alert system (so-called “World War III sirens”),^[3] when we speak of World War III, we may well be talking about nuclear war, which, despite occasional saber-rattling,^[4] Russia has so far refrained from in Ukraine.

The claim about destroying the British Army is something of a straw person as Britain is unlikely to be alone in any post-war security arrangements for Ukraine—or in defense of NATO territory^[5] or military bases,^[6] some of which have come under attack by Iran. Indeed, the big problem with the Iran war, quite apart from the madness of U.S., Israeli, and Iranian leadership, is how rapidly it has become a regional war, impacting multiple countries.^[7]

In the past, I have argued that in his pretensions to emulate Peter the Great,^[8] Putin threatens North Atlantic Treaty Organization territory.^[9] A Russian war with NATO would surely turn nuclear, particularly given the difficulties Putin has had in his efforts even to subjugate Ukraine. Which is why a story on where in the U.S. it is safest to be in the event of a nuclear war (short answer: nowhere)^[10] is gaining fresh attention.

In essence, Medvedev is offering a pretext for such a war and it remains to be seen if Putin is sufficiently insane to take it up.

^[1] Joe Harker, “Russia claims WW3 will ‘undoubtedly begin’ as it issues concerning warning to Western ‘pigs,’” LADbible, March 3, 2026, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-claims-ww3-will-begin-064214-20260302

^[2] Vladimir Solovyov, quoted in Olivia Burke, “Russia tests WW3 warning sirens as state TV says it will wipe out British Army in ‘weeks,’” LADbible, March 4, 2026, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-iran-war-putin-warning-siren-test-ww3-british-army-warning-934946-20260304

^[3] Olivia Burke, “Russia tests WW3 warning sirens as state TV says it will wipe out British Army in ‘weeks,’” LADbible, March 4, 2026, https://www.ladbible.com/news/world-news/russia-iran-war-putin-warning-siren-test-ww3-british-army-warning-934946-20260304

^[4] Susan Hudson, “Nuclear war in Ukraine not likely,” University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, October 27, 2022, https://www.unc.edu/discover/nuclear-war-in-ukraine-not-likely/

^[5] Times of Israel, “Iranian missile downed as it heads towards NATO member Turkey,” March 4, 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-missile-downed-as-it-heads-towards-nato-member-turkey/

^[6] Alice Tidey, “Drone attacks on British base in Cyprus spark concern, but no NATO or EU response,” Euronews, March 3, 2026, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/03/drone-attacks-on-british-base-in-cyprus-spark-concern-but-no-nato-or-eu-response

^[7] Barak Ravid, “UAE considers striking Iranian missile sites as regional war spreads,” Axios, March 3, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/03/03/uae-iran-missiles-strike-israel

^[8] Nathan Hodge, “Restoration of empire is the endgame for Russia’s Vladimir Putin,” Cable News Network, June 11, 2022, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/10/europe/russia-putin-empire-restoration-endgame-intl-cmd

^[9] New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html

^[10] Jordan King, “Map Shows Safest US States to Live During Nuclear War,” Newsweek, December 4, 2026, https://www.newsweek.com/safest-us-states-nuclear-war-attack-us-silos-1995408

I have been consistently skeptical of such a campaign as now appears likely because Iran is a larger country than either Afghanistan or Iraq and the U.S. wars in those countries were both failures. It is unclear what Trump really wants: His demands are about nuclear enrichment^[3] but he also seems to seek regime change.^[4]

Regime change is a worthy goal, but any attempt by the U.S. to impose it would surely feed into a “Great Satan” narrative that accompanied the Iranian Revolution in 1979. As Scott Anderson described people he knows in Iran in an interview on National Public Radio, “Most of them, frankly, are not fans of the regime. But what they've all said is that the bombings gave the regime just a new lease on life. It's produced this rallying around the flag effect inside Iran. You know, as a general rule, people don't like being bombed by foreign armies. And they feel the idea of this regime getting toppled or reformed in a significant way has just been pushed off a lot by the actions of the Israelis and the Americans at this point.”^[5]

It is also unclear who would succeed the current regime^[6] and whether they would be any more amenable to Trump’s demands to give up nuclear enrichment.

We have to consider the context. Iran, which apparently sees nuclear enrichment both as a means of projecting strength and as a bargaining chip for easing sanctions,^[7] has been a supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah, groups that Israel has weakened but not eliminated since it began its genocide in Gaza, and there is no shortage of sympathy among ordinary people in the Middle East outside of Israel for the Palestinian cause. Israel’s military accomplishments have not been accompanied by justice and so it is unlikely that any future Iranian government can be less supportive of that cause. Even if it was less supportive, that could only engender a popular conflagration: Israel will not be safer.

Even if Trump accomplishes his goals of destroying Iran’s nuclear program and of regime change in the country, these successes will likely be short term. War is not an answer here.

But it will bolster the toxic masculinity among Trump’s white Christian nationalist base.

^[1] Dan Rather, “We’re On the Brink of War,” Steady, February 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/were-on-the-brink-of-war; Barak Ravid, “Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran,” Axios, February 18, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/iran-war-trump-military-strikes-nuclear-talks

^[2] Murtaza Hussain, “Iran Likely to Have Moved Nuclear Components Ahead of Fordow Attack: Iranian Nuclear Scientist,” Drop Site, July 1, 2025, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-nuclear-program-united-states-attacks-israel

^[3] Lyse Doucet and Jeremy Culley, “Iran ready to discuss compromises to reach nuclear deal, minister tells BBC in Tehran,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz4y3zwz5o

^[4] Drop Site, “U.S. Military Tells Key Middle East Ally to Prepare for Attack on Iran,” January 30, 2026, https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/united-states-iran-imminent-attack-strikes-trump-israel

^[5] Dave Davies, “From allies to enemies: How the 1979 revolution transformed U.S.-Iranian relations,” National Public Radio, August 4, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5489730/from-allies-to-enemies-how-the-1979-revolution-transformed-u-s-iranian-relations

^[6] Dan Rather, “We’re On the Brink of War,” Steady, February 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/were-on-the-brink-of-war

^[7] Lyse Doucet and Jeremy Culley, “Iran ready to discuss compromises to reach nuclear deal, minister tells BBC in Tehran,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz4y3zwz5o

Rather, it’s apparently about Trump feeling snubbed over the Nobel Peace Prize. Even though Denmark, which holds sovereignty over Greenland, is not Norway, and Norway’s government is distinct from the Nobel Prize committee.^[2] He is already threatening additional tariffs until Denmark agrees to “sell” Greenland and has threatened to take control of the territory militarily, which might well end the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—an end Vladimir Putin has long desired.^[3]

There may be another link. A map exists of the “Technate of America,” in which all of North and Central America, and parts (at least) of Venezuela, Columbia, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana, are under U.S. control, which would extend as far as Pago Pago in the Pacific. It was the creation of the Technocracy movement,^[4] which (guess who?) Elon Musk’s grandfather was a part of.^[5]

In geographic breadth, it sounds like a neoconservative wet dream: Neoconservatives are so persuaded of the superiority of the U.S. economic and political system to all humans, regardless of history or culture,^[6] that they might well be on board for such an expansion. But the Technocracy movement was about replacing that economic and political system with a technocracy,^[7] which sounds a bit like the aconstitutional broligarchy Trump has very nearly succeeded in imposing.^[8]And given Trump’s affinity for Putin, imagine all this under de facto if not de jure Russian control.

This is, of course, the stuff of madness and while the 25^th amendment to the U.S. Constitution covers this contingency, any hope that Trump’s sycophants will invoke it is unrealistic.^[9] We are, as of today, barely a year into his second term.

^[1] Issy Ronald, “Why does Trump want Greenland and why is it so important?” Cable News Network, January 18, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/06/europe/why-trump-wants-greenland-importance-intl

^[2] Anne Applebaum, “Trump’s Letter to Norway Should Be the Last Straw,” Atlantic, January 19, 2026, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-letter-to-norway/685676/

^[3] Dan Rather, “Why Is This Man Smiling?” Steady, January 19, 2026, https://steady.substack.com/p/why-is-this-man-smiling

^[4] Cornell University Library, “Technate of America,” April 25, 2024, https://digital.library.cornell.edu/catalog/ss:34227574

^[5] Wikipedia, c.f. Joshua N. Haldeman, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_N._Haldeman - Political_activity_in_Canada

^[6] David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).

^[7] Wikipedia, c.f. Joshua N. Haldeman, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_N._Haldeman - Political_activity_in_Canada

^[8] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/its-an-aconstitutional-broligarchy

^[9] Janna Brancolini, “Trump’s Insane New Threat Leaves No Doubt: It’s Time for the 25^th Amendment,” Daily Beast, January 19, 2026, https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trumps-appalling-threat-leaves-no-doubt-its-time-for-the-25th-amendment/

I’m thinking first of Trump’s insistence on a deal for Ukraine to extract rare earths.^[2] He unconvincingly whined that Venezuela “stole” U.S. oil.^[3] Greenland also has rare earths and Trump wants those.^[4] And in the wake of his takeover of Venezuela,^[5] we’re hearing about the “Donroe Doctrine” as he thinks Cuba’s government will collapse, threatens Colombia and Mexico, and renews his threats to annex Greenland, which Denmark may have to surrender for Europe to save Ukraine.^[6]

There are a lot of reasons—none of them good—for what happened in Venezuela^[7] and there’s some doubt that there’s a coherent doctrine at all.^[8] I was thinking, however, of a return to mercantilist imperialism when a Vox newsletter^[9]pointed me at “neo-royalism,” described in the abstract in a context where “the US seems willing to sign deals with traditional adversaries including Russia and China, while targeting long-standing allies like Canada and Denmark.” Neo-royalism, it seems, “centers on ruling cliques, networks of political, capital, and military elites devoted to individual sovereigns, seeking to generate durable material and status hierarchies based on the extraction of financial and cultural tributes.”^[10]

Trump is by no means the first and will by no means be the last ruler to embrace this order. “But Trump’s position at the top of unparallelled power resources including the dollar-based global financial system and US military power, allows him to act as a ‘world orderer,’ with ‘a particular vision of the whole world ... who want to order it in a particular way and, in doing so, create, modify, and reproduce political, economic, and social institutions in the world.’^[11]” And there are a number of ways that Trump could fall.^[12] (I still think he’ll die soon.^[13])

But we are clearly beyond the point where “King Donald I”^[14] can be dismissed as mere hyperbole.

^[1] Jessica Levinson, “The incredible irony at the center of Trump’s case against Nicolás Maduro,” MS Now, January 7, 2026, https://www.ms.now/opinion/maduro-trump-immunity-supreme-court-defense

^[2] David Uren, “The value of Ukraine’s critical minerals is overstated,” Strategist, March 6, 2025, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-value-of-ukraines-critical-minerals-is-overstated/

^[3] Tobi Raji and Leo Sands, “Trump says Venezuela stole U.S. oil, land and assets. Here’s the history,” Washington Post, January 3, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/20/venezuela-oil-nationalization-expropriation/

^[4] William Booth and Laris Karklis, “Trump covets rare earth riches, but Greenland plans to mine its own business,” Washington Post, July 27, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2025/greenland-minerals-mining-trump-difficulties/

^[5] David Benfell, “Yet another f---ing war,” Not Housebroken, January 3, 2026, https://www.disunitedstates.org/p/yet-another-f-ing-war

^[6] Michael Birnbaum and Dan Lamothe, “White House floats military option for Greenland, rattling Denmark and NATO,” Washington Post, January 6, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/06/white-house-floats-military-option-greenland-rattling-denmark-nato/; Karen DeYoung and David Ovalle, “Trump team puts a target on Cuba, with threats and oil blockade,” Washington Post, January 6, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/06/cuba-venezuela-regime-change-trump-rubio/; Julia Ioffe, “Neocon Don,” Puck, January 5, 2026, https://puck.news/trumps-strike-doctrine-venezuela-iran-new-neocans/; Yves Smith, “Trump’s Greenland Threats: Will He or Won’t He Act?” Naked Capitalism, January 6, 2026, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/01/trumps-greenland-threats-will-he-or-wont-he-act.html; Ishaan Tharoor, “The crisis over Greenland is here,” Washington Post, January 6, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2026/01/06/venezuela-greenland-trump-stephen-miller/; Nicholas Vinocur, “Is Greenland next?” Politico, January 5, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/is-greenland-next/; Nicholas Vinocur, “Europe hugs America close — despite Greenland fears,” Politico, January 6, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/europe-hugs-america-close-despite-greenland-fears/

^[7] David Benfell, “Hip, hip, hooray for yet another forever war,” Not Housebroken, December 21, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/hip-hip-hooray-for-yet-another-forever

^[8] Gabe Fleisher, “There is No Trump Doctrine,” Wake Up to Politics, January 5, 2026, https://www.wakeuptopolitics.com/p/there-is-no-trump-doctrine

^[9] Caitlin Dewey to Today, Explained newsletter, “The key to understanding Trump’s foreign policy,” Vox, January 6, 2026, https://link.vox.com/view/60917b5fac7e007ef63bd58aptkbn.qod/e4cfd2c5

^[10] Stacie E. Goddard and Abraham Newman, “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System,” International Organization 79, no. S1 (December 2025), S12-S25, doi: 10.1017/S0020818325101057

^[11] [quoted] Zarakol, Ayşe. 2022. Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders. Cambridge University Press.

^[12] Stacie E. Goddard and Abraham Newman, “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System,” International Organization 79, no. S1 (December 2025), S12-S25, doi: 10.1017/S0020818325101057

^[13] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, December 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump

^[14] David Benfell, “King Donald I,” Not Housebroken, December 8, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/king-donald-i

“Explosions, loud noises and low-flying aircraft have been heard in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, with the president of neighbouring Colombia claiming on social media that the country was under attack. . . . Eyewitnesses reported seeing smoke pouring from two key military installations in Caracas: the La Carlota military airfield at the heart of the city and the Fuerte Tiuna military base where Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, has long been thought to live.”^[1]

Donald Trump, desperate to distract from the Jeffrey Epstein files and from his declining health, clearly wants to prove his virility. There are no words strong enough to condemn this aggression.

I have been ashamed of the U.S. since the Vietnam War—I was a child then, and I remember refusing to say the Pledge of Allegiance because I couldn’t see how “liberty and justice for all” applied when we were killing southeast Asian people.

I remember when we invaded Grenada—because the Cubans were helping build an international airport there.

I remember when we invaded Panama—because we wanted to arrest Manuel Noriega—as if Panama’s sovereignty was utterly irrelevant.

I remember, in the prelude to the Afghanistan War—George W. Bush had made clear it was coming—hearing on the radio that Bush had said something that made me think the missiles were already in the air (they weren’t). I was driving across the Presidio Heights neighborhood in San Francisco, screaming in my car, “No! No! No!” This was a misguided war from the outset that could only further antagonize Muslims. If, I thought, you wanted more Islamic terrorists, what better way? (And indeed, we might have all but vanquished Al Qaeda, but we failed to dislodge the Taliban and now we have the Islamic State across much of the eastern hemisphere.)

But don’t even get me started on the Iraq War, a war justified through outright lies, that made no sense whatsoever unless you were a neoconservative (this is one reason why I include many Democrats among neoconservatives).

I’ve already said many times what I think of our support for apartheid genocidal Zionist ethnic cleansing.

My disgust has been overwhelming already. And now we’re at war with Venezuela. Words cannot suffice.

Update, January 3, 2026: Donald Trump says U.S. forces have captured Nicolás Maduro. Pam Bondi says Maduro will face retributive ‘justice’ in the U.S.^[2]

“It was not immediately clear what the legal and constitutional authority was for the military operation and the capture and trial of a sovereign head of state. Nor was it clear whether Trump consulted Congress beforehand; it is supposed to be notified by the presidency before any declaration of war.”^[3] These are, of course, the same questions I had of the Panama operation. But we are governed by an aconstitutional broligarchy now.^[4]

“‘We are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,’ Trump said in a news conference from his Mar-a-Lago resort. ‘We can’t take a chance that somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn’t have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind.’ He added that the U.S. would run Venezuela ‘with a group’ and would be ‘designating various people’ in charge — pointing to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan ‘Razin’ Caine behind him.”^[5]

While working on my Ph.D., I noted that most war can be explained as part of a contest between ruling elites over which of them will govern which territories. That ‘transition’ will, of course, be to a Trump-friendly illegitimate ‘puppet’ regime. Venezuela will, for the foreseeable future, be a U.S. colony.

Update, January 4, 2025: Chris Geidner takes up the legality of Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela to abduct and arrest Nicolás Maduro at some length. It seems this is even more legally dubious than the operation in Panama, but there is no way under present law to challenge Trump’s action. He recommends legal—even constitutional—changes but asks, “Who are the leaders up to that task?”^[6]

Certainly not the Democrats. In hindsight, it is clear that when Barack Obama said of George W. Bush’s war crimes that “we need to look forward as opposed to looking backwards,”^[7] he wished to preserve a freedom to commit those very same crimes himself. And so we will continue to be a rogue country that routinely violates international and domestic law whenever it seems politically convenient.

In the present day, Democrats seem more concerned by the lack of Congressional authorization for the attack than the attack itself, which many of them actually applaud.^[8]

To be clear, I oppose imperialism. I oppose Russian imperialism. I oppose Israeli imperialism. I oppose U.S. imperialism. I oppose imperialism no matter who the imperialist is. The Democrats are not, and never have been, an anti-imperialist party. And this is a major reason I cannot vote for them at the federal level.

Meanwhile, the puppet regime, initially at least, keeps Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who will now report to the Trump administration, in charge of the Chavismo governing apparatus.^[9] It appears she will report most directly to Marco Rubio.^[10] I guess we’ll see how that goes.

^[1] Guardian, “Explosions reported in Venezuelan capital Caracas,” January 3, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/explosions-reported-venezuela-caracas

^[2] Jones Hayden, “US captures Venezuela’s Maduro, flies him out of country,” Politico, January 3, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/us-strikes-venezuela-captures-maduro-trump-says/

^[3] Tom Phillips, Patricia Torres, and William Christou, “US has captured Venezuela’s President Maduro and wife, says Trump,” Guardian, January 3, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/explosions-reported-venezuela-caracas

^[4] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/its-an-aconstitutional-broligarchy

^[5] Ali Bianco and Eli Okun, “Trump takes Maduro — and takes over Venezuela,” Politico, January 3, 2026, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/01/03/trump-takes-maduro-and-takes-over-venezuela-00709658

^[6] Chris Geidner, “A new, old type of lawlessness as Trump attacks Venezuela — and an opening for a better America,” Law Dork, January 3, 2026, https://www.lawdork.com/p/venezuela-maduro-trump-lawlessness-america

^[7] David Johnston and Charlie Savage, “Obama Reluctant to Look Into Bush Programs,” New York Times, January 11, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/12/us/politics/12inquire.html

^[8] Andrew Solender, “’It looks weak’: Dems fume at their party's response to Maduro capture,” Axios, January 4, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/01/04/maduro-venezuela-democrats-trump-congress

^[9] Rory Carroll, “Delcy Rodríguez strikes defiant tone but must walk tightrope as Venezuela’s interim leader,” Guardian, January 4, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/04/delcy-rodriguez-tightrope-venezuela-interim-leader

^[10] John Hudson and Adam Taylor, “Rubio takes on most challenging role yet: Viceroy of Venezuela,” Washington Post, January 4, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/04/rubio-venezuela-maduro/

At some point, a long, long time ago, it became apparent to me that this “repeated compulsion of making the same mistakes all over again” is no mistake. This is a party that is in fact desperate to sit in opposition where it can complain about Republicans without ever actually being expected to accomplish anything. Their bitterest critique of Donald Trump is that he is upsetting the status quo.

Solomon points to examples like “Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Summer Lee and Ro Khanna” as “strong progressives” who would not have been elected but for the Democratic Party, but while it’s one thing for progressives to have a voice, it’s quite another for them to have an effective voice: These members of Congress mostly serve to cover the Democrats’ left flank as their party pursues reliably neoliberal policies. The more recognizable progressives in his list are generally not in fact particularly effective legislators: Omar scores 0.164 on the legislative effectiveness scale, Ocasio-Cortez scores 0.276, and Tlaib scores 0.182. Lee scores 0.768. Khanna is the only one in the green at 1.215.^[2]

For the Democrats, there is indeed nothing to be learned from 2024. They wanted to lose, they deserved—with their embrace of Israeli genocide and their gaslighting on the economy—to lose, and they did lose.

^[1] Norman Solomon, “Why is the Democratic party hiding its 2024 autopsy report?” Guardian, December 30, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/30/democratic-party-autopsy-report-2024-election

^[2] Center for Effective Lawmaking, “118th Congress > House > All Issues,” n.d., https://thelawmakers.org/find-representatives

“So fuckin' stupid that we have to constantly disable more and more settings they've randomly added to get around the fact that we've disabled all the settings. It's just the fucking worst, people that run companies are all brain-dead assholes.”^[1]

Broligarchs are remarkably obsessed with ramming artificial idiocy down our throats even where we don’t want it and despite our considerable skepticism.^[2] In essence, despite all the ‘hallucinated’ ‘slop,’ they are convinced that they know what’s good for us, or that they can make money on it (though “profits remain scarce, and some economists are warning of an impending bubble,” and “the potential return on these massive investments remains murky”^[3]), or both.

Having begun my adult life in high technology—this was in the late 1970s to mid-1980s—I know something of the empowerment that people who work in this industry can feel as they create new ways to get technology to do useful things. It’s an empowerment that leads to arrogance, an arrogance we see whenever we are baffled by technology that developers conceive as brain-dead obvious; when, having finally mastered one bit, we are confronted with an upgrade that demands we figure it all out again; when, as with artificial idiocy, quantitative methods are applied to qualitative problems, leaving us with unsatisfactory “solutions” presumed to work for most of us most of the time; when buggy products are released by delusional developers who think testing is for other people; when we seek user support and are treated to artificial idiocy; and when developers reply to such complaints with a collective “not us!” or “not all developers!”

Guys—and yes, most developers are still men—I’ve been there and I know better. It’s toxic masculinity just as surely as the drivers of pickup trucks “rolling coal,” just as surely as in the antics that raise doubts as to how any men survive to reproduce, just as surely as in pointless aggression. And as for the women, they’re largely competing to out-“man” the men. So spare me.

Mozilla (the developer of Firefox) is far from alone in pushing artificial idiocy on us without our consent. I remember, even six years ago, before I left the San Francisco Bay Area, seeing billboard after billboard hyping artificial idiocy as the greatest thing since rubbing two sticks together to produce fire. Artificial idiocy is everywhere now, without our consent, while broligarchs smack their lips with delight over the labor costs they’re sure they’ll reduce (and they neglect the question of who will be able to afford to buy their products).

It’s a form of assault.

^[1] Craig P, Mastodon, December 26, 2025, https://mastodon.social/@Craigp/115788765657548672

^[2] Brian Kennedy et al., “How Americans View AI and Its Impact on People and Society,” Pew Research Center, September 17, 2025, https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2025/09/17/how-americans-view-ai-and-its-impact-on-people-and-society/

^[3] Danielle Kost, “AI Companies Don’t Have a Profitable Business Model. Does That Matter?” Harvard Business Review, November 12, 2025, https://hbr.org/2025/11/ai-companies-dont-have-a-profitable-business-model-does-that-matter

So in between the off-topic and utterly irrelevant and totally incoherent ranting, I think we know what Donald Trump’s address to the nation tomorrow (December 17) night^[1] will be about. Supposedly, “White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president will discuss his accomplishments since taking office in January and what he plans to do over the course of the next three years.”^[2]

But I’m guessing it’s gonna be about Venezuela. It seems “[t]he U.S. is preparing to seize more sanctioned oil-filled tankers off Venezuela” and that a “new phase also could soon include ‘land strikes on Venezuela.’”^[3] So there can be little doubt what this is about: Trump wants Venezuela’s oil.^[4] It’s certainly not about drugs.^[5]

In announcing the blockade, Trump said, “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.”^[6]

If you’re mystified about how or when Venezuela stole oil, land, and other assets from the U.S., I assume it refers to nationalizations that occurred under Hugo Chávez and his predecessor, Carlos Andrés Pérez.^[7]

Trump will pretend that restitution to U.S. corporations—which in some cases had already received fair compensation^[8]—will somehow benefit the U.S. public, which is already facing hard economic times.^[9] He will also pretend that the U.S. can win, when the U.S. has not won a war of any significance since World War II, which itself could be argued to have actually been won by the Soviet Union.

Trump has no shortage of domestic problems. Yet another forever war might prove a valuable distraction.

Update, December 21, 2025: Donald Trump did not, in fact, talk about Venezuela in his waste-of-time address on December 17. It was his usual demented nonsense, leading to yet more speculation about his health. He blamed Joe Biden for problems and trumpeted his first year as a success. There was no empathy for people suffering a rising cost of living whatsoever.^[10]

But as to Venezuela, “President Donald Trump said this week [December 14-20] that the expropriation of American oil company assets justified a ‘total and complete blockade’ of oil tankers arriving and leaving Venezuela in defiance of U.S. sanctions. The blockade will remain, he wrote on Truth Social, until the South American nation returns ‘to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.’ . . .

“But U.S. companies never owned oil or land in Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven reserves of crude, and officials didn’t kick them out of the country.”^[11]

This is war: “No matter which purpose is pursued by the establishment of a blockade, it always involves the use of military force directed against the enemy’s coastline or ports (Colombos 716–17). Accordingly, a blockade is a method of warfare to which the general principles and rules of the law of international armed conflicts/international humanitarian law apply.”^[12]

So, we are at war with Venezuela and we are at war for an entirely bogus reason. “It’s kind of like an odd argument. You owe me some money. We both went to court. The court said, ‘You pay me this.’ You start paying me, then I — by force, by the imposition of sanctions — make it impossible for you to continue paying me, and then I accuse you of stealing something from me.”^[13]

And, as to Cuba, it seems to have already been in trouble and is now staring down the barrel at a complete cutoff of Venezuelan oil. The Wall Street Journal, hardly likely to be friendly either to Cuba or Venezuela, seems to think Cuba is collapsing. The situation there appears certainly dire enough^[14] to suggest a violation of “the general principles and rules of the law of international armed conflicts/international humanitarian law,”^[15] to the extent they apply to a third country.

^[1] Kathryn Watson, “Trump says he'll deliver prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday,” CBS News, December 16, 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-prime-time-address-wednesday/

^[2] Kathryn Watson, “Trump says he'll deliver prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday,” CBS News, December 16, 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-prime-time-address-wednesday/

^[3] Marc Caputo, “‘Quite a buffet’: U.S. ready to seize more tankers with Venezuelan oil,” Axios, December 16, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/trump-seize-oil-tankers-venezuela

^[4] Maureen Tkacik, “The $30 Billion Identity Theft of Venezuela,” American Prospect, November 26, 2025, https://prospect.org/2025/11/26/30-billion-dollar-identity-theft-of-venezuela/

^[5] Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott, “Trump’s push against Venezuela faces Republican blowback at pivotal moment,” Semafor, December 1, 2025, https://www.semafor.com/article/12/01/2025/trumps-push-against-venezuela-faces-republican-blowback-at-pivotal-moment; Tobi Raji, “Former president of Honduras, convicted of trafficking, freed after Trump pardon,” Washington Post, December 2, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/02/hernandez-trump-pardon-prison-honduras/

^[6] Donald Trump, quoted in Samantha Schmidt, “Trump announces ‘complete blockade’ of sanctioned oil tankers to Venezuela,” Washington Post, December 16, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/16/trump-venezuela-oil-tanker-blockade/

^[7] Reuters, “Factbox: Venezuela's nationalizations under Chavez,” October 7, 2012, https://www.reuters.com/article/world/factbox-venezuelas-nationalizations-under-chavez-idUSBRE89701X/; Diana Roy and Amelia Cheatham, “Venezuela: The Rise and Fall of a Petrostate,” Council on Foreign Relations, July 31, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/venezuela-crisis

^[8] Diana Roy and Amelia Cheatham, “Venezuela: The Rise and Fall of a Petrostate,” Council on Foreign Relations, July 31, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/venezuela-crisis

^[9] Lauren Kaori Gurley, “Unemployment rate rises, signaling weakness in the economy,” Washington Post, December 16, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/12/16/jobs-report-unemployment-rate/; Joe Hernandez, “Trump calls affordability crisis a ‘hoax.’ The data tells a different story,” National Public Radio, December 11, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/12/11/nx-s1-5639957/trump-affordability-hoax-economy-midterms

^[10] Trevor Hunnicutt and Jeff Mason, “Takeaways from Trump's year-end address to the nation,” Reuters, December 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/takeaways-trumps-year-end-address-nation-2025-12-18/

^[11] Tobi Raji and Leo Sands, “Trump says Venezuela stole U.S. oil, land and assets. Here’s the history,” Washington Post, December 20, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/20/venezuela-oil-nationalization-expropriation/

^[12] Wolff Heintschel von Heinegg, “Blockade,” Oxford Public International Law, October 2015, https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e252

^[13] Francisco Rodríguez, quoted in Tobi Raji and Leo Sands, “Trump says Venezuela stole U.S. oil, land and assets. Here’s the history,” Washington Post, December 20, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/20/venezuela-oil-nationalization-expropriation/

^[14] Juan Forero and Ryan Dubé, “U.S. Oil Blockade of Venezuela Pushes Cuba Toward Collapse,” Wall Street Journal, December 21, 2025, https://apple.news/ADJrPwuIwTeWa9Zovw1wXjw

^[15] Wolff Heintschel von Heinegg, “Blockade,” Oxford Public International Law, October 2015, https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e252

Indeed, I’m filing Trump’s musing about whether his son, Don, Jr., would attend his memorial service^[4] right along with his musing that he doesn’t “think there's anything going to get [him] in heaven^.”[5] It sure sounds to me like he’s contemplating his mortality.

In truth, this presidency has three major narratives that will determine the course of future events: First, as already discussed, Trump’s health; second, his increasing authoritarianism, which may well outlive him; and third, his increasingly doubtful hold on the Republican Party; with the latter two intertwined.

Steve Bannon quoted a “top constitutional lawyer” as saying “you can drive a Mack truck through the 22nd Amendment,” the amendment which is generally understood to limit presidents to two terms,^[6] while our raging narcissist-in-chief is apparently furious^[7]—about his dismal poll ratings,^[8] in part due to fissures multiplying within white Christian nationalism,^[9] which are undermining his control of the Republican Party,^[10] which would seem to bode ill for any re-election attempt.

But this assumes a general election occurs. Hugo Balta argues, “The idea that Trump could run again in 2028 is legally implausible. But in today’s political climate, implausibility is no longer a deterrent—it’s a dare. The real danger isn’t that Trump will succeed in securing a third term. It’s that the conversation itself normalizes the erosion of constitutional boundaries.”^[11]

“Erosion,” I think, is entirely too moderate a word for it. If 2025 offers one lesson, it is that Trump has little regard for the courts or the law, let alone the Constitution. And we are not, at this writing (December 15), even a year into Trump’s second term. And as Trump loses his hold on the vestiges of representative government, he gains motivation to bypass it entirely.

Are we there yet? I think we’re getting close.

Consider, for instance, National Security Presidential Memorandum 7.^[12] I was already arguably a domestic terrorist for my support of nonhuman animal rights.^[13] Now I am one for arguably being “anti-Christian,”^[14] for being anti-capitalist, for being an ‘extremist’ on migration, race, and gender, and for opposing (therefore “hostile towards”) “traditional American views on family, religion, and morality.”^[15]

Supposedly my views are protected by the First Amendment, but 1) Trump refused to rule out summary executions of those he views as ‘domestic terrorists’^[16] and 2) contradictory language surrounding a radically right-wing National Security Strategy,^[17] NSPM-7, and a related memorandum from Attorney General Pam Bondi recalls the McCarthy era with a potential for blacklisting, monitoring, and surveillance.^[18] (Yeah, I’ve been trying to tighten my privacy protections.)

The Supreme Court has mostly been enabling Trump,^[19] suggesting that where there is any conceivable, no matter how contrived, way of interpreting the law or the Constitution in his favor, they will do so. Which is to say the guardrails are gone and the Constitution is, for all practical purposes, of very limited relevance. As I have previously noted, it’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now, where Trump and the very wealthy are, for the most part, beyond moral or legal challenge.^[20]

It is difficult to forecast what this country will look like in three years when the next general election is scheduled in 2028. Indeed, I might choose the term “radical uncertainty” except that I am confident we are increasingly in a competitive authoritarian regime, where laws, courts, and elections are all interpreted and tilted heavily in favor of the ruling party.^[21] I cannot presume that the general election will be held or that, if it is held, it will be “free and fair.”

Of course, it is also my expectation that Trump will not live that long.^[22] If I am right, it will be President J. D. Vance, who probably cannot command Trump’s following, but who may also be a complete wildcard, far less interested in ideology than in power.^[23] If this is true, he will certainly continue to build on Trump’s aconstitutional order.

Whether it is President Trump or President Vance, we have no reason to anticipate any restoration of checks and balances on presidential power. Trump has been ruling increasingly by executive order. When the courts rule against him, he often defies them, sometimes through thin attempts at obfuscation, sometimes through delay, sometimes by appealing to that oh-so-very-friendly Supreme Court. He isn’t winning every battle, but he’s ultimately prevailing in enough of them.

Which is to say that the midterm elections may not matter as much as many expect. Following the off-year Republican wipeout in November,^[24] Republicans are understandably alarmed by their prospects in the midterms.^[25] Their inability to reach a consensus on how to deal with dramatically rising health insurance premiums—due to their insistence on cutting off Obamacare subsidies—is not helping.^[26] And Republicans are getting restive.^[27]

I’m hearing some, albeit not a lot, talk of Trump as a lame duck. It seems he no longer has coattails for other Republican politicians to ride on. There’s a lot of talk of Republican politicians deciding they’ve had enough and leaving Congress. As Peter Hamby put it, “With as many as 20 Republicans expected to call it quits in the coming weeks—not flame-outs like Marjorie Taylor Greene, but planned retirements at the end of their terms—the party’s governing majority seems to be breaking under the pressures of dysfunction, infighting, and, of course, Donald Trump. Even in power, Republicans feel powerless: They have no agenda, little to legislate, and no independence from a White House that treats the preeminent branch of government as a nuisance.”^[28]

A “nuisance.” Let that sink in for a moment. Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. But for Trump, Congress is a “nuisance.”

One consequence, obviously, is that Trump is now less able to rely on Congress. But Trump doesn’t really care because the old idea that bills get proposed, go through committee hearings, and get voted on, then reconciled between the two houses, is not now his modus operandi. In June, Susan Hughes observed that “President Trump [had] signed 147 executive orders, setting a record for the most signed in any president’s first 100 days of office. By contrast, Trump has signed only five bills into law, a record low for the first 100 days.”^[29] Trump is sidelining Congress in favor of authoritarianism, which he, it seems quite reasonably, expects the Supreme Court to uphold. And whether it’s Trump or Vance, we can expect this to continue. Indefinitely.

^[1] Dan Rather, “How Sick Is He?” Steady, December 8, 2025, https://steady.substack.com/p/how-sick-is-he

^[2] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump

^[3] Donald Trump, quoted in Catherine Bouris, “Trump Gives Chilling Hint on His Future Plans,” Daily Beast, December 12, 2025, https://apple.news/AYZxFLClGTwe2uv51veOqmg

^[4] Katie Francis, “Trump, 79, Admits His Own Son Wouldn’t Want to Attend His Memorial,” Daily Beast, December 14, 2025, https://apple.news/AVyUeNBqeTTi5s3WCFC3-PQ

^[5] Donald Trump, quoted in Kinsey Crowley, “‘I’m being a little cute.’ Trump considers if Gaza ceasefire will get him into heaven,” USA Today, October 13, 2025, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/10/13/donald-trump-heaven/86668964007/

^[6] Steve Bannon, quoted in Catherine Bouris, “Trump Gives Chilling Hint on His Future Plans,” Daily Beast, December 12, 2025, https://apple.news/AYZxFLClGTwe2uv51veOqmg

^[7] Greg Sargent, “Transcript: Trump’s Fury at Prices Goes Wild as Crushing New Polls Hit,” New Republic, November 20, 2025, https://newrepublic.com/article/203416/transcript-trump-fury-prices-goes-wild-crushing-new-polls-hit

^[8] Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson, “How popular is Donald Trump?” Silver Bulletin, December 12, 2025, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

^[9] David Benfell, “Will there be a surprise ending?” Not Housebroken, October 31, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/will-there-be-a-surprise-ending; Leigh Ann Caldwell, “Chuck & Mike’s Freaky Friday,” Puck, December 14, 2025, https://puck.news/mike-johnsons-blue-christmas/; Andrew Solender and Kate Santaliz, “Republican lawmakers slam Trump's ‘inappropriate’ posts on Rob Reiner,” Axios, December 15, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/12/15/trump-rob-reiner-death-son-wife-post-republicans

^[10] Jennifer Rubin, “Trump is Losing it,” Contrarian, December 15, 2025, https://contrarian.substack.com/p/trump-is-losing-it

^[11] Hugo Balta, “Trump 2028—A Test of Constitutional Resolve,” Fulcrum, November 1, 2025, https://thefulcrum.us/democracy/can-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2028

^[12] Donald Trump, “Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence,” White House, September 25, 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/countering-domestic-terrorism-and-organized-political-violence/

^[13] Jason Black and Jennifer Black, “The Rhetorical ‘Terrorist’: Implications of the USA Patriot Act on Animal Liberation,” Terrorists or Freedom Fighters? eds. Steven Best and Anthony J. Nocella, II (New York: Lantern, 2004).

^[14] David Benfell, “On good and evil,” Not Housebroken, June 29, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/on-good-and-evil

^[15] Donald Trump, “National Security Presidential Memorandum/NSPM-7,” quoted in Melinda Haas, “Labeling dissent as terrorism: New US domestic terrorism priorities raise constitutional alarms,” Conversation, December 3, 2025, https://theconversation.com/labeling-dissent-as-terrorism-new-us-domestic-terrorism-priorities-raise-constitutional-alarms-269161

^[16] Thomas E. Brzozowski, “The Bondi Memo’s Quiet Rewriting of Domestic Terrorism Rules,” Lawfare, December 12, 2025, https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-bondi-memo-s-quiet-rewriting-of-domestic-terrorism-rules

^[17] Donald Trump, “National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” White House, November 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

^[18] Thomas E. Brzozowski, “The Bondi Memo’s Quiet Rewriting of Domestic Terrorism Rules,” Lawfare, December 12, 2025, https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-bondi-memo-s-quiet-rewriting-of-domestic-terrorism-rules

^[19] Steven Greenhouse, “Why does the supreme court keep bending the knee to Trump?” Guardian, October 6, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/06/supreme-court-donald-trump; Mark Joseph Stern, “The Supreme Court Is About to Hand Trump Insidious New Powers,” Slate, December 4, 2025, https://apple.news/AI7jKvSUDTJKayMZLxPH-fA

^[20] David Benfell, “It’s an aconstitutional broligarchy now,” Not Housebroken, September 23, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/its-an-aconstitutional-broligarchy; David Benfell, “King Donald I,” Not Housebroken, September 8, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/king-donald-i

^[21] Andrew Marantz, “Does Hungary Offer a Glimpse of Our Authoritarian Future?” New Yorker, June 27, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/07/04/does-hungary-offer-a-glimpse-of-our-authoritarian-future

^[22] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump

^[23] Adam Downer, “The Truth About JD and Usha Vance’s Marriage: Author,” Daily Beast, November 4, 2025, https://apple.news/ASU_3ooocQ2yJlAkgflK7yA

^[24] David Benfell, “Election night, 2025,” Not Housebroken, November 5, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/election-night-2025

^[25] Alexander Bolton and Caroline Vakil, “Republican lawmakers grow alarmed over signs of 2026 election wipeout,” Hill, November 24, 2025, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5618168-republican-midterm-election-concerns/

^[26] Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, and Nicholas Wu, “‘Our message is simple’: Democrats unite as GOP again struggles to address health care,” Politico, December 15, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/15/gop-obamacare-message-muddled-00690145

^[27] Leigh Ann Caldwell, “Chuck & Mike’s Freaky Friday,” Puck, December 14, 2025, https://puck.news/mike-johnsons-blue-christmas/

^[28] Peter Hamby, “Retirement Watch 2026!” Puck, December 12, 2025, https://puck.news/house-republicans-are-facing-a-wave-of-retirements-in-2026/

^[29] Susan A. Hughes, “Explainer: Executive orders as a governing tool,” Harvard Kennedy School, June 4, 2025, https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/democracy-governance/explainer-executive-orders-governing-tool

As Chris Geidner put it, “Although the case before the Supreme Court on Monday [December 8] related specifically to Trump’s effort to fire Rebecca Kelly Slaughter as a member of the Federal Trade Commission, the same agency at issue in Humphrey’s Executor, [Justice Elena] Kagan noted, ‘[I]f you take your [Solicitor John Sauer’s] logic at face value, it seems to include a great many things. … Once you’re down this road, it’s a little bit hard to see how you stop.’”^[3]

That’s because, as Geidner also explains, “Kagan put the matter bluntly toward the end of . . . Sauer’s argument for the Trump administration, telling him that ‘the real-world reality’ of his argument to overturn the precedent — given all of the laws passed since 1935 under the belief that such firings could be limited — would be ‘a President with control over everything, including over much of the law-making that happens in this country.’”^[4]

Of course, the conservative justices on the Supreme Court have for some time now made clear their disdain precisely for what they call the “administrative state,” which conservatives allege is unaccountable to anyone.^[5] But while today’s [December 8] decision enhances the president’s power,^[6] they meant to curtail the executive branch’s power when they overturned the Chevron doctrine.^[7]

That’s ceasing to matter. First, because anything Trump can do anything with impunity within the outer perimeter of his official duties.^[8] Second, because he—now alone^[9]—has a monopoly on the federal power to enforce the law,^[10] which means he can defy the courts—as he has already been doing in many cases. So there is, in effect, no enforcement power against him, except impeachment, which Democrats have failed to do in two attempts already. And at this point, I wouldn’t put it past him to simply defy an impeachment if it succeeded.

Trump will soon be effectively sovereign, in a sense proposed by David Graeber and David Wengrow, where he is beyond moral or legal challenge.^[11]

^[1] Justin Jouvenal, “Supreme Court poised to expand Trump’s power over independent agencies,” Washington Post, December 8, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/12/08/supreme-court-ftc-independent-agency-slaughter-trump/

^[2] Trump v. United States, 603 U.S. ____ (2024).

^[3] Chris Geidner, “SCOTUS appears ready to give Trump greater firing powers, over sharp liberal warnings,” Law Dork, December 8, 2025, https://www.lawdork.com/p/scotus-ftc-slaughter-humphreys-executor

^[4] Chris Geidner, “SCOTUS appears ready to give Trump greater firing powers, over sharp liberal warnings,” Law Dork, December 8, 2025, https://www.lawdork.com/p/scotus-ftc-slaughter-humphreys-executor

^[5] Amy Howe, “Supreme Court strikes down Chevron, curtailing power of federal agencies,” SCOTUSblog, June 28, 2024, https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-chevron-curtailing-power-of-federal-agencies/

^[6] Chris Geidner, “SCOTUS appears ready to give Trump greater firing powers, over sharp liberal warnings,” Law Dork, December 8, 2025, https://www.lawdork.com/p/scotus-ftc-slaughter-humphreys-executor

^[7] Amy Howe, “Supreme Court strikes down Chevron, curtailing power of federal agencies,” SCOTUSblog, June 28, 2024, https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-chevron-curtailing-power-of-federal-agencies/

^[8] Trump v. United States, 603 U.S. ____ (2024).

^[9] Chris Geidner, “SCOTUS appears ready to give Trump greater firing powers, over sharp liberal warnings,” Law Dork, December 8, 2025, https://www.lawdork.com/p/scotus-ftc-slaughter-humphreys-executor

^[10] Yasmin Abusaif and Douglas Keith, “What Courts Can Do If the Trump Administration Defies Court Orders,” Brennan Center for Justice, February 14, 2025, https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders; U.S. Const., Art. II, §3.

^[11] David Graeber and David Wengrow, Dawn of Everything (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021).

Putin needs to be humiliated—it is the one form of influence he understands.^[2] And for that to work, he needs to remain in power, long enough for Ukraine to defeat Russia, which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. Tisdall thinks it impossible, thus his distinction between Russia and Putin. Tisdall also argues that the growing economic peril is a reason for Putin to persist in his war.^[3]

Putin, born in October 1952, is not quite seven years older than I am. He has access to the best health care Russia can offer. Though I have seen questions raised about his health, we can only hope, not expect, that he might die soon. It’s very likely he outlives Donald Trump, who would be succeeded by J. D. Vance,^[4] whom I think rather likely to be even less supportive of Ukraine.^[5]

So Tisdall’s analysis isn’t the good news it appears to be. The war in Ukraine is now one of bloody attrition, which is likely why most of the analyses I’ve seen fear that the much larger Russia is likely—at great cost—ultimately to prevail. Indeed, Putin seems sufficiently confident that he rattles his saber at North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries^[6] and there has been more talk of war between Europe and Russia.

In an earlier iteration of this blog—now off line—I warned that the inescapable logic of Putin’s ambition was not just a conquest of Ukraine but of at least some NATO territory. The news has not improved since.

^[1] Simon Tisdall, “Putin should have accepted Trump’s deal. Now Russia’s collapsing economy could lead to his downfall,” Guardian, December 7, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war

^[2] Julia Ioffe, “About a Boy: The Roots of Putin’s Evil,” Puck, May 10, 2022, https://puck.news/about-a-boy-the-roots-of-putins-evil/

^[3] Simon Tisdall, “Putin should have accepted Trump’s deal. Now Russia’s collapsing economy could lead to his downfall,” Guardian, December 7, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war

^[4] David Benfell, “The publicly absent Donald Trump,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/the-publicly-absent-donald-trump

^[5] David Benfell, “We can only hope that this is Ukraine’s darkest hour,” Not Housebroken, November 22, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/we-can-only-hope-that-this-is-ukraines; James Landale, “Vance took the lead attacking Zelensky. Why?” British Broadcasting Corporation, March 1, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cewkg71d8rlo

^[6] Dan Sabbagh, “Nato scrambles jets as Russian drones make deepest incursion into Romania,” Guardian, November 25, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/25/nato-scrambles-jets-russian-drones-deepest-incursion-romania; Pjotr Sauer and Andrew Roth, “Russia ‘ready’ for war if Europe starts it, Putin says, as US peace talks end without progress,” Guardian, December 2, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/02/witkoff-in-moscow-for-talks-as-putin-claims-to-have-taken-key-ukrainian-city

I’m trying to imagine a soldier in a foxhole, with their lawyer along, evaluating every order for illegality and defensibility. But it’s worse than that: “Military personnel involved in such a strike, for example, would also have been bound by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, which outlined the legal rationale for conducting the boat strikes in a still-secret memo. ‘Those are given the force of law inside the executive branch,’ said the [unnamed] retired Marine judge advocate. ‘It’s practically given as much weight as a judicial decision. People have to be entitled to rely on that. If you’re a tactical unit commander and you’ve received your order, you kind of have to assume that it’s gone through the wickets and that the policy stuff has been worked out.’”^[2]

Which is great until it isn’t—which could be a very long time. It’s not like there’s a practical possibility that a U.S. Navy seaman is going to wind up in the Hague since the U.S. is a rogue state that refuses International Criminal Court jurisdiction.^[3] And as Barack Obama demonstrated in refusing to prosecute the war crimes of the George W. Bush administration,^[4] Democrats want to preserve a “freedom” to commit those same crimes themselves. So even if, despite their seeming determination to remain in opposition where they can complain about the Republicans without ever actually being expected to accomplish anything themselves, the Democrats win the presidency in 2028, it’s not like they will enforce accountability.

Still, for the moment, the heat is on as Congress investigates and war crime allegations—not yet, if ever, prosecutions—fly.^[5] We shall see if anything comes of it.

^[1] Julia Ioffe, “A Few Bad Men,” Puck, December 4, 2025, https://puck.news/boat-strike-blame-games-is-hegseth-in-trouble/

^[2] Julia Ioffe, “A Few Bad Men,” Puck, December 4, 2025, https://puck.news/boat-strike-blame-games-is-hegseth-in-trouble/

^[3] Leila N. Sadat and Mark A. Drumbl, “The United States and the International Criminal Court,” Washington and Lee University School of Law, July 28, 2016, https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/wlufac/504/; Donald Trump, “Imposing Sanctions on the International Criminal Court,” White House, February 6, 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court/

^[4] Glenn Greenwald, “Obama's Justice Department Grants Final Immunity to Bush's CIA Torturers,” Global Policy Forum, August 31, 2012, https://archive.globalpolicy.org/international-justice/general-articles-on-international-justice/51931-obamas-justice-department-grants-final-immunity-to-bushs-cia-torturers.html

^[5] Nick Turse, “Entire Chain of Command Could Be Held Liable for Killing Boat Strike Survivors, Sources Say,” Intercept, December 2, 2025, https://theintercept.com/2025/12/02/hegseth-boat-strikes-war-crime-venezuela/

The University of Oklahoma has placed graduate student instructor Mel Curth on leave after they gave a conservative religious student, Samantha Fulnecky, a zero for an essay “assert[ing] gender roles were biblically ordained and call[ing] gender nonconformity [sic] ‘demonic.’” Fulnecky filed a religious discrimination complaint against Curth, who had “noted that they were not deducting points because of Fulnecky’s beliefs but because she failed to answer the assigned questions and heavily relied on personal ideology rather than empirical evidence and because the essay was at times offensive.”^[1]

This isn’t just about transgenderism. From an epistemological perspective, Fulnecky invoked a conservative religious way of knowing. Curth, on the other hand, seems to have been invoking positivism—another way of knowing, generally approved in a university.

Positivism is, for all practical purposes, scientific method, but it, too, is inherently, to some degree ideological. It takes as a foundational premise that human beings can accurately perceive reality, whether directly or by way of instrumentation. It discounts that all such observations occur through a perceptual filter in the brain which interprets and synthesizes the data of the senses.

Conservatives, however, discount positivism as ‘temporal knowledge,’ inferior to ‘permanent knowledge.’ ‘Permanent knowledge’ is, as I discussed in my dissertation,^[2] inherently ideological—it takes some ideology, be it capitalism, nationalism, entitlement, white supremacy, tradition, or something else as foundational.

Positivism tends to be quantitative and to dismiss qualitative inquiry as ‘subjective.’ It asserts ‘objectivity,’ which doesn’t actually exist because all observations are, some way, somehow subjective, subject to that perceptual filter, which is vulnerable to various forms of bias.

Politically, neoliberal ideology draws on positivism. It is still ideological, entailing assumptions about the relationships between workers and employers, the rich and the poor, and the proper role of government. Neoliberals claim to base their ideology on economics and ‘free market’ capitalism (whenever you see the word ‘free,’ ask for whom, to do what, to whom, at whose expense), but most economists are themselves ideological, embracing the same foundational claims as biases in their allegedly ‘objective’ observations.

As a conservative religious student, Fulnecky likely draws upon a (selective) reading of the Bible as ‘permanent knowledge,’ superseding the ‘temporal’ empirical evidence her instructor, Curth, demanded. And in imposing a suspension on Curth, the University of Oklahoma has, at least provisionally, also privileged that (selective) reading.

As a public institution, the University of Oklahoma should—emphasis on should—be secular. It has no business privileging a religious way of knowing. Fulnecky likely should pursue her education in a religious university, not a secular one, though even at such an institution, she may find that not all professors and instructors share her views on gender. Some religious folks, after all, emphasize love for their neighbors over judgment.

That the University of Oklahoma has chosen to embrace, even if only provisionally, that highly subjective judgment—and that other universities may feel pressure to behave similarly—is a sad reflection on the state of academia today.

^[1] Lauren Nutall, “University of Oklahoma places transgender instructor on leave after student fails assignment,” Instagram, December 2, 2025, https://www.instagram.com/p/DRxxFGOjZdi/

^[2] Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).

It's hard to know. Venezuela has huge oil reserves and Delaware federal judge Leonard Stark, persuaded that Citgo was de facto an organ of the Venezuelan government, ordered the company—which is uniquely capable of processing heavy Venezuelan oil—sold off to satisfy Venezuelan debt, depriving Venezuela of a lot of refining capacity.^[4] So this might be about oil. It also might be an additional pressure point against the Nicolás Maduro regime.

Bolton recounts trying to persuade Trump to compel regime change in Venezuela but that Trump really wasn’t interested.^[5] So one question about the regime change motivation would have to be, why is Trump interested now? Trump does seem to like burning fossil fuels, which, in my mind, recalls the assholes “rolling coal” (emitting thick black smoke) in their supersized pickup trucks around Pittsburgh.

One question that keeps popping up in my mind about this fixation on Venezuela is, why Venezuela and not Cuba, with the latter a lot closer to U.S. shores? It seems that Cuba does have oil but not a lot of it.^[6] It’s just another country whose regime U.S. politicians don’t like. And regime change in Venezuela would further isolate the Cuban regime.

I don’t think Bolton is wrong in assessing that Trump wants to look tough. That’s a throughline from the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, to choosing Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary (“Secretary of War”), to warmongering against Greenland, to bombing Iran, to indifference to Gaza genocide, to affiliating with Vladimir Putin, to a double tap strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat in the Venezuela.

And as to that double tap strike in which a second strike was ordered to leave no survivors from an alleged drug smuggling boat, dead men tell no tales. Meaning that they can’t contradict the Donald Trump administration’s strident assertions that these strikes in the Caribbean are on drug smugglers.^[7] It is now beyond obvious that Trump views himself as sovereign in a sense proposed by David Graeber and David Wengrow, as beyond challenge on legal or moral grounds,^[8] in part because his felony convictions and other prosecutions seem to him to have strengthened him. And he has separately suggested that because he rules the United States, he rules the world.^[9] Thus, reinforcing the tough guy persona but also refusing any opportunity for these drug running allegations to be heard in court.

But just as any U.S. involvement in the Middle East may at least in part be about oil, and just as the threats against Greenland were in part about rare earths,^[10] it is impossible to ignore the oil angle. And replacing a left-wing authoritarian with a right-wing authoritarian in Venezuela^[11] would chalk up another regime on the scoreboard of right-wing versus left-wing governments in Latin America while pressuring Cuba.

We’re looking at a trifecta of tough guy Trump, oil, and geopolitics. Even if Trump is too much an imbecile to comprehend all this, it lines up a lot of right-wing advocacy.

^[1] Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott, “Trump’s push against Venezuela faces Republican blowback at pivotal moment,” Semafor, December 1, 2025, https://www.semafor.com/article/12/01/2025/trumps-push-against-venezuela-faces-republican-blowback-at-pivotal-moment

^[2] Tara Copp, Ana Vanessa Herrero, and Rachel Pannett, “Venezuela orders massive mobilization as U.S. aircraft carrier approaches,” Washington Post, November 11, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/11/11/venezuela-aircraft-carrier-gerald-ford/

^[3] Julia Ioffe, “Trump’s Venezuela Doctrine,” Puck, November 19, 2025, https://puck.news/will-trump-attack-venezuela-or-will-he-back-down/

^[4] Maureen Tkacik, “The $30 Billion Identity Theft of Venezuela,” American Prospect, November 26, 2025, https://prospect.org/2025/11/26/30-billion-dollar-identity-theft-of-venezuela/

^[5] Julia Ioffe, “Trump’s Venezuela Doctrine,” Puck, November 19, 2025, https://puck.news/will-trump-attack-venezuela-or-will-he-back-down/

^[6] Worldometer, “Cuba Oil,” n.d., https://www.worldometers.info/oil/cuba-oil/

^[7] Victoria Bisset et al., “Congressional committees to scrutinize U.S. killing of boat strike survivors,” Washington Post, November 29, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/11/29/hegseth-caribbean-strikes-kill-order-reaction/

^[8] David Graeber and David Wengrow, The Dawn of Everything (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2021).

^[9] Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer, “‘I run the country and the world,’” Atlantic, April 28, 2025, https://apple.news/APGNdke68TJCCF-QwhhT88A

^[10] William Booth and Laris Karklis, “Trump covets rare earth riches, but Greenland plans to mine its own business,” Washington Post, July 27, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2025/greenland-minerals-mining-trump-difficulties/

^[11] Maureen Tkacik, “The $30 Billion Identity Theft of Venezuela,” American Prospect, November 26, 2025, https://prospect.org/2025/11/26/30-billion-dollar-identity-theft-of-venezuela/

It very much looks yet again like Donald Trump’s plan for Russia’s war on Ukraine is for Ukraine to capitulate. According to a Cable News Network newsletter, “Trump seems to be trying again to bully Ukraine into accepting Russia’s punitive terms to end the war. The new US plan for ‘peace’ seems to be nothing more than the Kremlin’s wish list and is the latest example of Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff buying President Vladimir Putin’s concocted history lessons.”^[1]

According to a Kyiv Independent newsletter, “Kyiv would be forced to cede Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, be obliged to recognize Russian as an official language, and remove restrictions on the Russian Orthodox Church, an organization closely linked to the Russian state and supportive of the war against Ukraine.”^[2]

The latter newsletter mostly blames Steve Witkoff for reviving Putin’s maximalist demands yet again, saying, “The people involved — [Russia’s top economic negotiator, Kirill] Dmitriev and Witkoff — are both evil and clueless. They believe that the current situation is the best opportunity to once again attempt to force Ukraine to capitulate.” And despite White House claims, it appears neither Ukraine nor Europe have been consulted on this latest reiteration of an old, rejected idea that Volodymyr Zelensky is now even less able or willing to accept.^[3]

Zelensky, who for the entire war I have thought to be the determined leader Ukraine needed, is now weakened, facing a ballooning corruption scandal involving his associates and a Russian infiltration into Pokrovsk, “a pivotal logistics hub early in the all-out war and a vital defense outpost later on . . . now on the verge of being lost.”^[4]

Trump, an authoritarian himself, for whom law is whatever he says it is at whatever his whim is at the moment; who claims sovereignty in a way proposed in The Dawn of Everything, and is thus beyond moral or legal challenge;^[5] and for whom anyone who doubts this is a traitor, for he is the state, is plainly most comfortable in the company of other authoritarians, like Putin, and is much too desperate for Putin’s respect and approval.

Zelensky may be unable to accept Trump’s terms but I fear that this will only mean that Trump cuts off arms to Ukraine yet again. We have feared that something like this might happen since Trump was re-elected. The CNN newsletter described Trump’s plan as “especially pernicious this time since the US is turning up the heat on Kyiv at a vulnerable moment.”^[6] How about we just call it “especially pernicious.”

Update, November 21, 2025: It does indeed appear that the Donald Trump administration is attempting to shove a bad deal that even the Russians have not agreed to down Ukraine’s throat. According to the Washington Post, “The plan contains elements long pushed for by Moscow, including a full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the heavily fortified Donetsk region in the east of Ukraine, granting Russia full control of territory it has not been able to conquer in nearly four years of war.

 “Russia would receive ‘de facto recognition’ of its control of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as of the areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia it has illegally seized, with the conflict in these regions frozen on the current front line.

“Ukraine would be forced to enshrine in its constitution that it will not seek to join NATO Western alliance, while agreeing to significantly reduce the size of its armed forces from the 800,000-850,000 military personnel to 600,000.” Ukraine must “sign on to its new peace proposal by Thanksgiving or lose U.S. support.”^[7]

“In addition, the proposed settlement would bar the presence of any NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, effectively nixing European proposals to send troops to deter Russia from attacking again.” Which is to say that the security guarantees Ukraine would receive in exchange^[8] are meaningless.

Update, November 22, 2025: Anne Appelbaum follows the money on this—more aptly called—Ukraine war deal and guess what? She finds a lot of it, benefiting unnamed entities, surely Russian oligarchs and the Donald Trump family^[9] but, we have to suspect, other U.S. oligarchs as well. Which is pretty much par for the course in an aconstitutional broligarchy.

^[1] Stephen Collinson to Meanwhile in America list, “Turbulent days ahead,” Cable News Network, November 21, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/newsletters

^[2] Oleksiy Sorokin to WTF is wrong with Russia? List, Kyiv Independent, November 20, 2025, https://kyivindependent.com/newsletters/

^[3] Oleksiy Sorokin to WTF is wrong with Russia? List, Kyiv Independent, November 20, 2025, https://kyivindependent.com/newsletters/

^[4] Oleksiy Sorokin to WTF is wrong with Russia? List, Kyiv Independent, November 20, 2025, https://kyivindependent.com/newsletters/

^[5] David Graeber and David Wengrow, Dawn of Everything (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2021).

^[6] Stephen Collinson to Meanwhile in America list, “Turbulent days ahead,” Cable News Network, November 21, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/newsletters

^[7] Siobhán O'Grady et al., “U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support,” Washington Post, November 21, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/11/21/ukraine-war-peace-proposal-witkoff-thanksgiving/

^[8] Siobhán O'Grady et al., “U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support,” Washington Post, November 21, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/11/21/ukraine-war-peace-proposal-witkoff-thanksgiving/

^[9] Anne Appelbaum, “Cui Bono?” Open Letters, November 22, 2025, https://anneapplebaum.substack.com/p/cui-bono

Many, certainly not just I, have observed that white Christian nationalists seem to revel in cruelty for the sake of cruelty. Health insurance premiums going up, government workers getting laid off or working without pay, food stamps being withheld—these all fit the bill. Donald Trump himself fits the description of narcissistic rage^[5] like a glove. And that of psychopathy as well.^[6] And it’s not just Trump: It’s white Christian nationalism in general.

The eight senators who capitulated, with Chuck Schumer’s—at least—acquiescence, were arguably recognizing that reality.^[7] I suspect many more did as well but feared the blowback from a constituency that is furious with Democratic Party capitulation—as I have said many times, they seem desperate to sit in opposition, where they can complain about Republicans without ever actually being expected to actually accomplish anything—as the vote to pass the continuing resolution was 60-40,^[8] just barely enough to clear a filibuster. The eight yes votes provided just enough cover for the rest to vote no. And so Schumer may indeed deserve blame for failing to hold his caucus together.^[9]

My problem is this: If we’re going to be adamant about saying no, we need to have a plan for getting to where we can say yes. The shutdown is already the longest on record^[10] with no otherwise apparent light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t have an alternative plan short of a likely futile attempt at armed rebellion.

That makes it hard for me to argue for continuing intransigence. But I think it’s also possible to argue that Democrats effectively enabled this outcome with their own decades-long rightward shift and with their longstanding unwillingness to stand up for anything or anyone besides their donor class. Republicans have seen and certainly will have argued among themselves that if they held out long enough, Democrats would eventually fold. Because it’s what they always, always do.

We do not have and have not for decades had an effective opposition to conservative cruelty. Many Democrats are themselves conservative (so-called ‘liberal interventionist’), with their support for neoliberalism (which is a moral imperative of neoconservatism) and with their embrace of neoconservative warmongering.^[11] Which is to say we had already ceded the hill we were to die on.

At minimum, we need an effective, by whatever means are necessary, opposition that actually wants to win elections, that actually wants to improve the lives of our people. I don’t know how we get there. But Democrats are not the answer.

^[1] George Monbiot, “Outer Turmoil,” June 17, 2025, https://www.monbiot.com/2019/06/17/outer-turmoil/

^[2] Dan Rather and Team Steady, “Furious? You Should Be,” Steady, November 10, 2025, https://steady.substack.com/p/furious-you-should-be

^[3] Riley Beggin and Theodoric Meyer, “Deal to end government shutdown passes Senate, heads to House,” Washington Post, November 10, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/10/government-shutdown-senate-bill/; Sam Gringlas, “Senate approves shutdown ending legislation, sending bill to the House for a vote,” National Public Radio, November 10, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/11/10/g-s1-97245/senate-shutdown-vote

^[4] Dan Rather and Team Steady, “Furious? You Should Be,” Steady, November 10, 2025, https://steady.substack.com/p/furious-you-should-be

^[5] George Simon, “Understanding and Dealing with Narcissistic Rage,” Counseling Resource, July 24, 2017, http://counsellingresource.com/features/2017/07/24/understanding-narcissistic-rage/

^[6] George Monbiot, “Outer Turmoil,” June 17, 2025, https://www.monbiot.com/2019/06/17/outer-turmoil/

^[7] Dan Rather and Team Steady, “Furious? You Should Be,” Steady, November 10, 2025, https://steady.substack.com/p/furious-you-should-be

^[8] Riley Beggin and Theodoric Meyer, “Deal to end government shutdown passes Senate, heads to House,” Washington Post, November 10, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/10/government-shutdown-senate-bill/; Sam Gringlas, “Senate approves shutdown ending legislation, sending bill to the House for a vote,” National Public Radio, November 10, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/11/10/g-s1-97245/senate-shutdown-vote

^[9] Dan Rather and Team Steady, “Furious? You Should Be,” Steady, November 10, 2025, https://steady.substack.com/p/furious-you-should-be

^[10] Riley Beggin and Theodoric Meyer, “Deal to end government shutdown passes Senate, heads to House,” Washington Post, November 10, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/10/government-shutdown-senate-bill/

^[11] David Benfell, "Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration" (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).

According to projections, Abigail Spanberger will be the next governor of Virginia, Ghazala F. Hashmi will be the state’s lieutenant governor, and Jay Jones will be the state’s attorney general; Mikie Sherrill will be governor in New Jersey; Zohran Mamdani will be New York City’s next mayor; and California has endorsed a gerrymander that might give Democrats five more seats in the House of Representatives. Many of these victories appear to have been by wide margins.^[1]

Donald Trump was, of course, not on the ballot but these results will surely come as an astonishing rebuke. Beyond that, it remains to be seen how Republican politicians who have been sycophants in word and deed to Trump will react as the white Christian nationalist coalition appears increasingly to be breaking up.^[2]

One thing that’s clear is that Trump does not now have the “mandate” he claimed following the 2024 election. One thing that’s not so clear is what this portends for 2026 or for 2028—both of these elections will include races for seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate and it is at the federal level that Democrats have convinced me they prefer to sit in opposition.

^[1] Washington Post, “Mamdani wins NYC mayor race, California passes Prop 50, Democrats take governor races in N.J., Va.,” November 4, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/11/04/election-2025-live-updates/

^[2] David Benfell, “Will there be a surprise ending?” Not Housebroken, October 31, 2025, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/will-there-be-a-surprise-ending