If Vladimir Putin doesn’t make sense, he doesn’t make sense, and he cannot last

benfell

See updates through March 16, 2023, at end of post.


Fig. 1. “The atomic cloud over Nagasaki 1945.” Photograph from Office for Emergency Management. Office of War Information. Overseas Operations Branch, New York Office, News and Features Bureau, (12/17/1942 – 09/15/1945), by Charles Levy, August 9, 1945, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Russia has launched a missile attack against several Ukrainian cities, targeting civilians and energy infrastructure, drawing international condemnation. Vladimir Putin claims it is in retaliation for[1] what the Russians claim was a truck bomb attack, orchestrated by Ukrainian “special services,” that severely damaged the Kerch bridge between Russia and Crimea.[2]

There may be reason to doubt this barrage can be sustained. The head of the British Government Communications Headquarters says that Russian forces are exhausting their supplies and munitions.[3] That likely includes missiles. When it was first reported that Russia might be exhausting its inventory of advanced missiles, this foreshadowed less accurate missile and artillery strikes which would be more dangerous for civilians,[4] but Russia is targeting civilians anyway,[5] and if indeed Russia is exhausting this inventory as well,[6] well, what next? If some analysts are correct, even going nuclear would be insufficient to improve Putin’s fortunes and might draw a devastating conventional counterstrike from the West.[7]

It’s possible that some of this information is wrong, but I am remembering the lesson I learned from the dot-com crash: If it doesn’t make sense, it doesn’t make sense, and it cannot last. Putin hasn’t made much sense about Ukraine anytime this year,[8] and he hasn’t been making any more sense lately.[9] If this information is right, it gets really, really hard to see how Putin’s war can continue and how he can last,[10] even if, for now, his position still appears secure.[11]

Update, October 11, 2022: I have added citations to existing footnotes and it isn’t just Lewis Page[12] who thinks going nuclear would not improve Russia’s military position,[13] leading to a light modification of the original text. In general, Vladimir Putin appears ever more to be acting out of desperation, delusion, and fury; indeed, some might call it a military-grade temper tantrum, potentially even with nuclear weapons.[14] For all of it, there is still no coherent path to victory. Putin still isn’t making sense.

So on one hand, there is the suggestion in my original post that Putin must surely fall;[15] this is, after all, no way to run a war, let alone a country. On the other, he appears ever more the cornered, wounded animal, albeit with nuclear weapons (that, admittedly, he may not actually be able to use[16]), and thus, all the more dangerous. It’s a scary, scary time.

Update, October 12, 2022: This is how Jade McGlynn ends her Telegraph op-ed, published under the tempting headline, “Desperate Putin is out of time as rival elites begin to circle:”

Put yourselves in the Russians’ shoes: you can either accept as false the premise of this war, in which Putin has tied up your national identity, and demand the radical overhaul of society in the face of terrifying force, or you can pretend the real issue is that the military and politicians haven’t been trying hard enough and, once they start doing so, Russia will win.

The second narrative is much less demanding and much more tempting, but it will only exacerbate Russia’s problems since Russia cannot win. The Ukrainians are not for breaking. Every Russian attack just makes them more defiant. This is why Putin will not reassert authority over his unruly elites or the public if he continues to pursue a path of escalatory aggression. But it is difficult to ascertain another way out and he has left himself very little, if any, space to turn back.

At some stage, however, the elites will have to make a choice: whether to prop up [Vladimir] Putin or save themselves. History suggests the latter is far more likely.[17]

It’s a flawed headline. McGlynn’s argument is more that Vladimir Putin’s escalation of his war criminality in Ukraine and his appointment of Sergei Surovikin, also known as “General Armageddon,” to lead it[18] are a response to Russian war hawks. She suggests that Putin is doing this under compulsion[19] from the one source of war criticism he has permitted.[20]

I think to infer from these moves that Putin is losing agency, as McGlynn does,[21] would require that Putin is doing something he hasn’t tried before in less challenging times. But these tactics are not new. Indeed, “General Armageddon” has built his career in the Russian military, including in Syria, including under Putin, on them.[22]

Certainly, we see desperation. Putin’s war has gone wrong from the start. And certainly there will be consequences.[23] He will lose agency. Events will swirl beyond his control. But I do not see evidence that this is already happening and it is premature to say that it is.

Update, October 16, 2022:

Since the [Russian missile] onslaught began on Monday [October 10], more than three dozen people have been killed and scores more wounded. Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure appears to be the main target, meaning that some residential areas have been plunged into darkness, leaving civilians confronting the possibility of facing winter without power.

But conditions on the battlefield continue to favor the nimbler, more highly motivated and better armed Ukrainian military, which seems likely to retain the advantage over Russia’s lumbering, poorly equipped and exhausted army, at least for the foreseeable future.[24]

Remember what I said about Liz Truss and flailing? How flailing rarely turns out well for the flailers?[25] It’s the same with Vladimir Putin in his war on Ukraine. Almost nothing is going right for Putin[26] and it’s increasingly clear that he continues the fight merely out of delusion.[27]

What’s interesting is to see the tankies come out of the woodwork on Twitter. Now that Putin is losing and losing badly,[28] they are desperate for a ceasefire, to “save lives,” they say. I’ve previously noted that they seem only to object to U.S. imperialism, not to anybody else’s imperialism and tyranny.[29] Now we’re seeing that they actively support and embrace Russian imperialism, support and embrace Putin’s tyranny.

To my great dismay, this appears to include the Green Party in the U.S., leaving me no one on the Pennsylvania ballot to vote for, only a smorgasbord to vote against: Democrats for neoliberalism, Republicans for white Christian nationalism, capital-L Libertarians for capitalist libertarianism, and Greens for being, well, tankies.

Update, December 30, 2022:

[Vladimir] Putin, who started his career as a Soviet KGB agent, has always kept his own counsel, relying on a close inner circle of old friends and confidants while seeming to never fully trust or confide in anyone. But now a new gulf is emerging between Putin and much of the country’s elite, according to interviews with Russian business leaders, officials and analysts.

Putin “feels the loss of his friends,” said one Russian state official with close ties to diplomatic circles, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “[Belarusian President Alexander] Lukashenko is the only one he can pay a serious visit to. All the rest see him only when necessary.” . . .

“There is huge frustration among the people around him,” said one Russian billionaire who maintains contacts with top-ranking officials. “He clearly doesn’t know what to do.”[30]

There remains a divide between ‘pragmatists’ who see the war as lost and ‘hawks’ who want to escalate further.[31] Yevgeniy Prigozhin, whom Julia Ioffe thinks might lead a coup against Vladimir Putin,[32] is of course among the hawks[33] and the notion of the war as ‘existential’ for Russia[34] persists as India and China worry that Putin will go nuclear.[35]

What’s probably most dangerous here is the appearance that Putin lacks a plan.[36] That’s the precise formulation that leads someone who thinks he can “fix it” to step in and if, indeed, that person is Prigozhin[37] or someone of similar mind, then the war might get bloodier still.

Update, February 19, 2023:

But business executives and state officials say [Vladimir] Putin’s own position at the top could prove precarious as doubts over his tactics grow among the elite. For many of them, Putin’s gambit has unwound 30 years of progress made since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin’s vision of Russia horrifies many oligarchs and state officials, who confide that the war has been a catastrophic error that has failed in every goal. But they remain paralyzed, fearful and publicly silent.[38]

Be careful what you wish for: The only name I’m even hearing as a potential successor to Vladimir Putin is Yevgeny Prigozhin.[39] And as opponents of the war desert Russia, they leave behind a Russia more unified in support of the war by default.[40]

I certainly agree it is necessary to depose Vladimir Putin to end his war on Ukraine.[41] But now we must ask, how can this be accomplished such that it doesn’t make matters worse?

Update, February 22, 2023: Emigration is one factor in a ‘purification’ of Russia, in which departing dissidents leave supporters of Vladimir Putin’s war even more dominant in Russian society.[42] But dissent is being repressed as well.[43]

Meanwhile, Putin is playing to the ‘tankies’ with his decision to withdraw from the last nuclear arms treaty with the U.S.:

Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who was a Russian specialist at the White House National Security Council from 2017 to 2019, told the Guardian that Putin was “playing to the rifts in the United States”. The strategy was to increase political discord in an attempt to embolden calls for an end to US support for Ukraine.

“It’s playing to all those people who want Ukraine to surrender and capitulate to avoid a massive nuclear exchange and world war three, a kind of nuclear armageddon,” she said.[44]

He’s losing the war in every other way. But he still has a chance to manipulate public opinion, both at home and abroad,[45] and it’s really his last shot.[46]

[Vladimir] Putin may be a dictator, but even dictators have to justify losses. . . .

Putin has put himself and his country in a desperate situation, and he has run out of options, including nuclear threats. This is not to say that the risk of nuclear conflict has evaporated; as I noted on the most recent episode of the Radio Atlantic podcast, there is still plenty of room for Putin to do something foolish and set a terrible chain of events in motion. But after a year, it seems that the Russian president’s plan—if it can even be called that—is to consign more of his young men to the Ukrainian abattoir while hoping that the West somehow tires of the whole business. . . .

The Russian president is still counting on Kyiv and its armies to collapse, or perhaps on an election to remove Biden, or for Europe to lose its nerve, or for China, perhaps, to come to Moscow’s rescue (which would be both a balm and a deep humiliation). But he also knows that time may be running out at home: After a year of war, there are only so many young men left to kill and only so many generals left to blame.[47]

Update, March 16, 2023: Julia Ioffe understands that Evgeny Prigozhin (“[Vladimir] Putin’s Chef”) has enemies,[48] but I’m not gonna pretend I know what’s going on with him and the Kremlin. I’m just pretty sure it isn’t this:

The mercenary boss dubbed “Putin’s Chef” said authorities are choosing to deprive Wagner of ammunition which has slowed progress in the blood-soaked battle to take Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. “The objective is simple,” [Evgeny] Prigozhin said: “PMC Wagner should not take Bakhmut.”

His comments, which were made during an interview with several Russian media outlets on Wednesday, are the latest development in an escalating war of words between Prigozhin and the official armed forces of Russia.

“Our actions today of course cause envy,” Prigozhin said, referring to jealousy among Russia’s military establishment. “So because we have successes, while in other places successes are not what they’d like to be, then instead of—remember what grandpa Lenin said: we all thought we were all meant to live well, but instead, they made it so that everyone lived the same but poorly.”[49]

Prigozhin goes on to complain that he’s been

deprived access to military phones. “Leave me the phone! Set wiretapping on it,” [Evgeny] Prigozhin said. “Know what I’m talking about, and call me sometimes and say: ‘Prigozhin, you’re a cunt, go fuck yourself,’ and hang up. At least like this. What’s the point of cutting it?”[50]

Were I Prigozhin, instead of the pointless bellyaching, and if we are to take him at his word, I’d be asking what the Kremlin really wants in exchange.

I don’t take Prigozhin at his word. Because even in an utterly corrupt country, he wouldn’t have gotten where he has[51] by being so stupid. He’s smarter than this.

Whether he is luring Ukrainian forces by projecting weakness or he is up to something entirely else, I deeply doubt his sincerity.

It’s hard to imagine he can really take Bakhmut without ammunition though he boasts that he will.[52] His claim of “shell hunger” is either bullshit, meaning he has ammunition enough to win the fight, or he loses.

I also wonder who his real audience is. Obviously, if he’s trying to lure Ukrainian forces, then that’s who his complaints are aimed at. If he’s really aiming his remarks at Russian audiences, then I suspect he’s laying groundwork for the coup a few folks suspect him of plotting,[53] with a subsequent purge of his enemies in the Kremlin. It could well be both.

  1. [1]Dan Sabbagh, “Kremlin decision to target Ukraine’s cities was political, not tactical,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/kremlin-decision-to-target-ukraines-cities-was-political-not-tactical; Pjotr Sauer, “Sergei Surovikin: the ‘General Armageddon’ now in charge of Russia’s war,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/sergei-surovikin-the-general-armageddon-now-in-charge-of-russias-war; George Styllis, Gareth Davies, and Grace Millimaci, “Deadly strikes are just ‘first episode’ of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev,” Telegraph, October 10, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/↩
  2. [2]Peter Beaumont, “Impact of Kerch bridge blast will be felt all the way to the Kremlin,” Guardian, October 8, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/08/impact-of-kerch-bridge-blast-will-be-felt-all-the-way-to-the-kremlin; Peter Beaumont, “Vladimir Putin calls blast on Crimea-Russia bridge an ‘act of terror,’” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/09/russia-ukraine-war-attack-housing-zaporizhzhia; Adam Schreck and Vasilisa Stepanenko, “Explosion on Crimean bridge damages key Russian supply route; 3 dead,” Los Angeles Times, October 8, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-10-08/truck-bomb-damages-crimea-bridge-a-key-supply-artery-for-russias-war-effort; Maite Fernández Simon and Paul Sonne, “Putin’s bridge of dreams explodes in flames,” Washington Post, October 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/08/kerch-bridge-crimea-symbolism-putin/; Times of Israel, “Russia says truck bomb caused Crimea bridge explosion, stops short of blaming Kyiv,” October 8, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-says-truck-blast-caused-crimea-bridge-explosion-stops-short-of-blaming-kyiv/; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Major Explosion Hits the Bridge Between Crimea and Russia, Halting Traffic,” Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-explosion-hits-the-bridge-between-crimea-and-russia-halting-traffic-11665215052↩
  3. [3]Dan Sabbagh, “GCHQ head: Putin making strategic errors due to unconstrained power,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/gchq-head-putin-making-strategic-errors-ukraine-russia; Dan Sabbagh, “Kremlin decision to target Ukraine’s cities was political, not tactical,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/kremlin-decision-to-target-ukraines-cities-was-political-not-tactical↩
  4. [4]Christopher Gettel, “Russia Is Running Out of Missiles. That’s Bad News for Ukraine,” Defense Post, September 1, 2022, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/09/01/russia-missiles-running-out/↩
  5. [5]George Styllis, Gareth Davies, and Grace Millimaci, “Deadly strikes are just ‘first episode’ of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev,” Telegraph, October 10, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/↩
  6. [6]Dan Sabbagh, “GCHQ head: Putin making strategic errors due to unconstrained power,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/gchq-head-putin-making-strategic-errors-ukraine-russia↩
  7. [7]Lawrence Freedman, “A ‘strategic nuclear exchange’ would offer Putin zero military gains,” New Statesman, May 4, 2022, https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/05/a-strategic-nuclear-exchange-would-offer-putin-zero-military-gains; Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
  8. [8]David Benfell, “Vladimir Putin is a fool,” Not Housebroken, June 11, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/01/24/vladimir-putin-is-a-fool/↩
  9. [9]Greg Miller et al., “Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds,” Washington Post, October 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/; Farida Rustamova, “Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/02/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-decisions-face-defeats/; Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/↩
  10. [10]Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/; Christian Esch et al., “Berlin and Washington Play Out Nuclear Scenarios,” Spiegel, October 7, 2022, https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/berlin-and-washington-play-out-scenarios-of-a-nuclear-strike-by-putin-a-ecbc1772-8526-4ce1-ae0d-7270309df54e; Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/; Greg Miller et al., “Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds,” Washington Post, October 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/↩
  11. [11]Dan Sabbagh, “GCHQ head: Putin making strategic errors due to unconstrained power,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/gchq-head-putin-making-strategic-errors-ukraine-russia↩
  12. [12]Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
  13. [13]Lawrence Freedman, “A ‘strategic nuclear exchange’ would offer Putin zero military gains,” New Statesman, May 4, 2022, https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/05/a-strategic-nuclear-exchange-would-offer-putin-zero-military-gains↩
  14. [14]Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/; Bloomberg, “Russia Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable ICBM in Warning to U.S. Allies,” April 20, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/russia-stages-test-of-nuclear-missile-in-warning-to-u-s-allies; Daniel Boffey, “Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” Guardian, March 26, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/russia-reasserts-right-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-putin; Julian Borger, “Russia’s nuclear threats ‘totally unacceptable’, says UN chief,” Guardian, September 22, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-nuclear-threats-totally-unacceptable-says-un-chief-antonio-guterres; Nandita Bose and Pavel Polityuk, “Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat brings risk of ‘Armageddon,’” Reuters, October 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-forces-break-through-russian-defences-south-advance-east-2022-10-03/; Josie Ensor, “Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West,’” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/; Edward Helmore, “Jake Sullivan: US will act ‘decisively’ if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” Guardian, September 25, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/25/us-russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-jake-sullivan; Mary Ilyushina, Miriam Berger, and Timothy Bella, “Russian TV shows simulation of Britain and Ireland wiped out by a nuke,” Washington Post, May 3, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/03/russia-ireland-nuclear-weapons-video-ukraine/; Yuras Karmanau, “Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, escalating tensions,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550; Luke McGee and Claire Calzonetti, “Putin spokesman refuses to rule out use of nuclear weapons if Russia faced an ‘existential threat,’” CNN, March 22, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europe/amanpour-peskov-interview-ukraine-intl/index.html; Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn; Reuters, “Hailing Peter the Great, Putin draws parallel with mission to ‘return’ Russian lands,” June 9, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hailing-peter-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-return-russian-lands-2022-06-09/; Farida Rustamova, “Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/02/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-decisions-face-defeats/; Dan Sabbagh, “GCHQ head: Putin making strategic errors due to unconstrained power,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/gchq-head-putin-making-strategic-errors-ukraine-russia; Dan Sabbagh, “Kremlin decision to target Ukraine’s cities was political, not tactical,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/kremlin-decision-to-target-ukraines-cities-was-political-not-tactical; Pjotr Sauer, “Putin flirts again with grim prospect of nuclear war – this time he might mean it,” Guardian, September 21, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/putin-flirts-again-with-grim-prospect-of-nuclear-war-this-time-he-might-mean-it; Pjotr Sauer, “Sergei Surovikin: the ‘General Armageddon’ now in charge of Russia’s war,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/sergei-surovikin-the-general-armageddon-now-in-charge-of-russias-war; Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response; Paul Sonne and John Hudson, “U.S. has sent private warnings to Russia against using a nuclear weapon,” Washington Post, September 22, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/22/russia-nuclear-threat-us-options/; Adam Taylor and William Neff, “Why the world is so worried about Russia’s ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons,” Washington Post, March 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/29/why-world-is-so-worried-about-russias-tactical-nuclear-weapons/; Ishaan Tharoor, “Putin makes his imperial pretensions clear,” Washington Post, June 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/13/putin-imperial-russia-empire-ukraine/; Ishaan Tharoor, “Russia pushes the panic button and raises risk of nuclear war,” Washington Post, September 21, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/21/russia-referendums-ukraine-occupied-nuclear/; Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/; Simon Tisdall, “Putin is trapped and desperate. Will his friends in the west rescue him?” Guardian, August 28, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/28/putin-is-trapped-and-desperate-will-his-friends-in-the-west-rescue-him-russia-ukraine; Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean↩
  15. [15]David Benfell, “If Vladimir Putin doesn’t make sense, he doesn’t make sense, and he cannot last,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/10/10/if-vladimir-putin-doesnt-make-sense-he-doesnt-make-sense-and-he-cannot-last/↩
  16. [16]Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
  17. [17]Jade McGlynn, “Desperate Putin is out of time as rival elites begin to circle,” Telegraph, October 11, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/11/desperate-putin-time-rival-elites-begin-circle/↩
  18. [18]Julia Ioffe, “‘General Armageddon’ & Putin’s Bridge to Nowhere,” Puck News, October 11, 2022, https://puck.news/general-armageddon-putins-bridge-to-nowhere/; Pjotr Sauer, “Sergei Surovikin: the ‘General Armageddon’ now in charge of Russia’s war,” Guardian, October 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/10/sergei-surovikin-the-general-armageddon-now-in-charge-of-russias-war; George Styllis, Gareth Davies, and Grace Millimaci, “Deadly strikes are just ‘first episode’ of response to Crimea attack, says Medvedev,” Telegraph, October 10, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/10/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-crimea-bridge-zaporizhzhia/↩
  19. [19]Jade McGlynn, “Desperate Putin is out of time as rival elites begin to circle,” Telegraph, October 11, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/11/desperate-putin-time-rival-elites-begin-circle/↩
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