Underestimating the gravity of the situation, as Donald Trump faces a White House exit

See updates through January 14, 2021, at end of post.


I remember, out in California, talking to a psychologist friend about Donald Trump. Neither of us could imagine he would last a full four years in office.

My friend noted, correctly as it turned out, that Trump wasn’t actually interested in being president so much as in the attention that winning the presidency had gained him, but thought Trump would find a way to resign or step aside.

I couldn’t conceive of Trump resigning. It would be a disgrace to be a “quitter,” at odds with Trump’s self-image. Not that I thought it probable, but I thought suicide was more likely.

I was looking at Trump’s presidency in terms of systems theory. I saw Trump as a destabilizing feedback that would eventually provoke a stabilizing feedback that would oust him from office. I didn’t know how. I didn’t know when. But as I said, I couldn’t imagine it taking four years.

Trump is nearing the end of his four-year term and has not been re-elected. The stabilizing feedback, if one can call it that, has been an election.

But the situation is far from resolution. Trump has not acknowledged defeat and has pursued every avenue, legal or extra-legal, to remain in office. His supporters, likely fueled by an addiction to their own grievance,[1] desperately seek not only to keep him in office[2] but validation for their belief in him. This quest for validation[3] appears to be its own self-reinforcing feedback, as Garry Trudeau catches a sense of in his Doonesbury comic strip (figure 1).


Fig. 1. Doonesbury Comic by Garry Trudeau, December 20, 2020, fair use.

From my time here in southwestern Pennsylvania, I am convinced that there really are places like Trudeau portrays. I have personally had interlocutors tell me they couldn’t understand me through my mask. (Google Assistant’s speech recognition works as well with the mask on as it ever does, which still isn’t great, but suggests these folks are attempting to deceive me.) There are still, a month and a half following the election and Trump’s defeat, numerous Trump campaign signs, flags, and the like to be seen. Whenever I venture into Westmoreland County, masks are the exception rather than the rule; some passengers simply flout Uber’s rule requiring masks while a majority still inquire as to whether they’re required. (Uber makes the rules, including that masks are required and that passengers are to sit in the back seat, highly visible in the passenger app.) I hardly ever even get orders in Washington County anymore, even though it’s actually nearest to me, and it used to be fairly common that I’d get a few orders especially around the city of Washington.

This is an extraordinarily dangerous situation.[4] We do not know the lengths Trump will go to, to remain in office, or to which his supporters will go to keep him there. It seems unlikely that Trump will succeed in invoking the Insurrection Act,[5] but this relies on a somewhat—we do not know to what degree—compromised military[6] correctly understanding and following its constitutional duty, when both sides, albeit one much more dubiously than the other, claim constitutional authority.[7] He is attempting to get Congress to overturn[8] the electoral college result.[9] He remains, for the moment, in command of a powerful, nuclear-armed military. He has the backing of right-wing militia groups of unknown, both in numbers and weapons, strength,[10] with a known, but not known to what degree, reach into police and military forces.[11]

Apart from his own delusional[12] raging narcissism,[13] and his own probable addiction to grievance,[14] Trump faces serious legal and financial problems on the other side of that final White House exit.[15] There have long been worries about how Donald Trump might react to losing[16] and it should be no surprise that we now find ourselves in this predicament.

We have two epistemological realities in play. One is that Trump lost. The other is emphatic that Trump won[17] and appears willing and able to deploy violence in support of its imagination.[18] This is one aspect of a polarization in our society that makes it implausible that the United States can in fact remain ‘united.’[19] Even as we acknowledge our division, we, especially President-elect Joe Biden, deny its significance[20] and underestimate Trumpster fury,[21] thus exacerbating it (figure 2).


Fig. 2. Photograph by author, August 25, 2020.

My psychologist friend and I were wrong about how long Trump would last in office. I doubt either of us imagined that this situation could descend in the way that it has. It has been a mistake to underestimate the gravity of the situation.

Even as Trump nears his exit, and as mental health professionals observe,[22] it would be a mistake to underestimate the danger we still face.


Update, December 21, 2020: I would not take it as consolation that the crazy, such as Rudy Giuliani, in Donald Trump’s orbit are turning on the crazier, such as Michael Flynn and Sidney Powell. But if Trump appoints the conspiracy theorist Powell as special prosecutor to investigate election fraud,[23] take it as a sign that the crazier are prevailing. Trump is desperate,[24] so it just might happen (but probably not by outgoing Attorney General Bill Barr’s hand[25]), in which case, the prospect of an attempt to invoke the Insurrection Act might become very real.[26]


Update, December 23, 2020: I’m honestly not quite sure what all to make of Congressional Republican infighting over attempting to challenge the electoral college tallies and try to overturn the result. The thinking on one side seems to be that this is doomed, which it indeed almost certainly is, therefore they’ll look bad even trying.[27] But the failure to try further convinces Trumpsters that Republicans are not doing enough to “defend” Donald Trump, which, as I’ve previously noted, is a problem in the Georgia runoff.[28] The one thing that is clear is that not all Republicans, especially not in the Senate, are falling in line behind Trump, a reflection of a “lame duck” status that clearly stings our delusional raging narcissist-in-chief.[29]


Update, December 29, 2020: Also see a new blog post entitled, “Who shall determine our fate?.”


Update, January 6, 2021: Unsurprisingly, there was violence as Trumpsters stormed the U.S. Capitol while Congress met to certify Joe Biden’s victory in the November election. At this writing, the Capitol building has been cleared of rioters and Congress is back in session.[30]


Update #2, January 6, 2021: The riot in the Capitol may have dulled the appetite for objecting to the electoral college count, as an objection to the Arizona slate was defeated in the Senate by a vote of 93-6 and some senators say they do not expect further challenges.[31] With Donald Trump continuing to dispute the election results,[32] it seems unlikely this is over.


Update, January 14, 2021: Look for further updates in subsequent blog post entitled, “The danger that remains.”

  1. [1]James Kimmel, Jr., “What the Science of Addiction Tells Us About Trump,” Politico, December 12, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/12/trump-grievance-addiction-444570
  2. [2]David Benfell, “When it’s over but it isn’t,” Not Housebroken, December 21, 2020, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/11/27/when-its-over-but-it-isnt/
  3. [3]David Benfell, “Doubting the ‘Fox News bubble,’” Not Housebroken, December 13, 2020, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/09/07/doubting-the-fox-news-bubble/
  4. [4]Michael Kruse, “Is Trump Cracking Under the Weight of Losing?” Politico, December 20, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/20/trump-white-house-losing-448903
  5. [5]Tina Nguyen, “MAGA leaders call for the troops to keep Trump in office,” Politico, December 18, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/18/trump-insurrection-act-presidency-447986; Felicia Sonmez et al., “A frustrated Trump redoubles efforts to challenge election result,” Washington Post, December 20, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/tuberville-electoral-challenge-trump-conversation/2020/12/20/1658573e-42db-11eb-b0e4-0f182923a025_story.html; Felicia Sonmez et al., “A frustrated Trump redoubles efforts to challenge election result,” Washington Post, December 20, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/tuberville-electoral-challenge-trump-conversation/2020/12/20/1658573e-42db-11eb-b0e4-0f182923a025_story.html
  6. [6]Lois Beckett, “How the US military has failed to address white supremacy in its ranks,” Guardian, June 24, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/24/us-military-white-supremacy-extremist-plot; Mike Giglio, “A Pro-Trump Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans,” Atlantic, November 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/right-wing-militias-civil-war/616473/; Leo Shane, III, “Signs of white supremacy, extremism up again in poll of active-duty troops,” Military Times, February 6, 2020, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/02/06/signs-of-white-supremacy-extremism-up-again-in-poll-of-active-duty-troops/
  7. [7]Robert Barnes, “Supreme Court denies Trump allies’ bid to overturn Pennsylvania election results,” Washington Post, December 8, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-trump-pennsylvania-election-results/2020/12/08/4d39e16c-397d-11eb-98c4-25dc9f4987e8_story.html; Robert Barnes, “Supreme Court dismisses bid led by Texas attorney general to overturn the presidential election results, blocking Trump’s legal path to a reversal of his loss,” Washington Post, December 11, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-texas-election-trump/2020/12/11/bf462f22-3bc6-11eb-bc68-96af0daae728_story.html; Pam Fessler, “Led By Giuliani, Trump Campaign Effort To Stop Certification Falters In Pennsylvania,” National Public Radio, November 17, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936027693/led-by-giuliani-trump-campaign-effort-to-stop-certification-falters-in-pennsylva; Josh Gerstein, “Trump campaign revises Pennsylvania suit, again,” Politico, November 18, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/18/trump-pennsylvania-election-lawsuit-437996; Jon Swaine, “In scathing opinion, federal judge dismisses Trump campaign lawsuit in Pennsylvania,” Washington Post, November 21, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-judge-dismisses-trump-campaign-lawsuit-in-pa/2020/11/21/cc097fbe-2c50-11eb-9b14-ad872157ebc9_story.html; Elise Viebeck, “Pennsylvania Supreme Court dismisses lawsuit against mail ballots with prejudice in another defeat for Trump,” Washington Post, November 28, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pennsylvania-supreme-court-dismisses-lawsuit-against-mail-ballots-with-prejudice-in-another-defeat-for-trump/2020/11/28/d1d50ef4-31d2-11eb-96c2-aac3f162215d_story.html
  8. [8]Marianne Levine and Melanie Zanona, “McConnell warns Senate Republicans against challenging election results,” Politico, December 15, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/15/mcconnell-gop-election-results-445524
  9. [9]David Charter, “Trump announces law chief Bill Barr has quit as electoral college backs Joe Biden,” Times, December 15, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-announces-law-chief-bill-barr-has-quit-as-electoral-college-backs-joe-biden-wnzzxkczt
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  11. [11]Lois Beckett, “How the US military has failed to address white supremacy in its ranks,” Guardian, June 24, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/24/us-military-white-supremacy-extremist-plot; Mike Giglio, “A Pro-Trump Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans,” Atlantic, November 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/right-wing-militias-civil-war/616473/; Leo Shane, III, “Signs of white supremacy, extremism up again in poll of active-duty troops,” Military Times, February 6, 2020, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/02/06/signs-of-white-supremacy-extremism-up-again-in-poll-of-active-duty-troops/
  12. [12]Michael Kruse, “Is Trump Cracking Under the Weight of Losing?” Politico, December 20, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/20/trump-white-house-losing-448903
  13. [13]George Simon, “Understanding and Dealing with Narcissistic Rage,” Counselling Resource, July 24, 2017, https://counsellingresource.com/features/2017/07/24/understanding-narcissistic-rage/
  14. [14]James Kimmel, Jr., “What the Science of Addiction Tells Us About Trump,” Politico, December 12, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/12/trump-grievance-addiction-444570
  15. [15]Dan Alexander, “Trump Will Have $900 Million Of Loans Coming Due In His Second Term If He’s Reelected,” Forbes, October 19, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/19/trump-will-have-900-million-of-loans-coming-due-in-his-second-term-if-hes-reelected/; Jane Mayer, “Why Trump Can’t Afford to Lose,” New Yorker, November 1, 2020, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/09/why-trump-cant-afford-to-lose
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  20. [20]Eric Bradner and Gregory Krieg, “Joe Biden predicts a post-Trump ‘epiphany’ for Republicans,” CNN, May 14, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/joe-biden-republicans-trump-epiphany/index.html; Moira Donegan, “What does Biden have in common with Trump? Delusional nostalgia,” Guardian, June 21, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/21/joe-biden-trump-sexism-delusional-nostalgia; Matt Ford, “Someone Please Tell Joe Biden That Bipartisanship Is Dead,” New Republic, June 12, 2019, https://newrepublic.com/article/154183/someone-please-tell-joe-biden-bipartisanship-dead; Paul Waldman, “Joe Biden still hasn’t learned the lessons of the Obama presidency,” Washington Post, December 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/06/joe-biden-still-hasnt-learned-lessons-obama-presidency/
  21. [21]David Benfell, “Barack Obama asks, ‘Why is it that the folks that won the last election are so mad all the time?’” Not Housebroken, November 4, 2018, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/11/04/barack-obama-asks-why-is-it-that-the-folks-that-won-the-last-election-are-so-mad-all-the-time/
  22. [22]Michael Kruse, “Is Trump Cracking Under the Weight of Losing?” Politico, December 20, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/20/trump-white-house-losing-448903
  23. [23]Jonathan Chait, “Trump Floats Coup Plan That’s So Wild Even Rudy Giuliani Is Terrified,” New York, December 19, 2020, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/trump-coup-sidney-powell-martial-law-michael-flynn-meltdown.html
  24. [24]Michael Kruse, “Is Trump Cracking Under the Weight of Losing?” Politico, December 20, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/20/trump-white-house-losing-448903
  25. [25]Matt Zapotosky, “Undercutting Trump, Barr says there’s no basis for seizing voting machines, using special counsels for election fraud, Hunter Biden,” Washington Post, December 21, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/barr-trump-special-counsel-voter-fraud-hunter-biden/2020/12/21/4d85f060-439c-11eb-b0e4-0f182923a025_story.html
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