Start changing the border signs: ‘Welcome to Gilead’

benfell

See update for July 28, 2022, at end of post.

When I read Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, I both marveled at how plausible it seemed, and wondered at how it might come to pass that the U.S., or at least a significant part of it, might become Gilead, the country in which Atwood set her dystopian novel, located south of Canada.[1]

My latter question is being answered. As Roe v. Wade stands likely to be overturned,[2] contraception, privacy, and LGBTQ+ rights may be next.[3] Even the legality of divorce could conceivably come into question if the traditionalist conservative (mostly conservative Roman Catholics) faction, mostly allied with the social conservative (mostly evangelical Protestants) faction,[4] in an increasingly monolithic conservatism, that is, white Christian nationalism,[5] has its way.[6]

And the prospect of any possible effective electoral resistance to a forthcoming white Christian nationalist authoritarian regime is diminishing:

The Jan. 6 committee [investigating the coup attempt on January 6, 2021] will release a damning report this fall, and maybe we’ll see prosecutions. But here’s another possibility: No one is prosecuted, Republicans take Congress, Jan. 6 headlines fade, and after the noise dies down, many pro-coup Republicans are in positions of control over election machinery — and Trump or a designated successor is a favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination.[7]

If the U.S. were truly a country of law, as so many like to claim, there would be little question that Donald Trump would be tried, convicted, and imprisoned. Attorney General Merrick Garland hesitates, likely because he fears unrest.[8] But there is a question, and indeed, considerable reason for doubt that a prosecution could succeed before Trump or another white Christian nationalist wins back the presidency.

Which is to say that, between Republican Supreme Court appointments and the fear of violence, white Christian nationalists have already effectively captured the criminal injustice system. Greg Sargent foresees a scenario in which Republicans, that is, white Christian nationalists, whether Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, capture the presidency in 2024.[9] It’s pretty much a consensus that these same Republicans, white Christian nationalists, will do well in November, capturing at least the House of Representatives; the Senate, which is already hostage to Republicans, yet again, white Christian nationalists, could fall as well. My expectation is that all of these things will happen; I in fact fail to see what will stop it[10]—it certainly won’t be the Democrats.[11]

Sargent also repeats[12] his own warning, a warning comprehensively explored by Ishaan Tharoor, that these same Republicans, again, white Christian nationalists, will then be in control of electoral machinery, thus deciding elections, and effectively taking over the country at the federal level and unimpeded, whether by courts or federal law, from doing so in many states.[13]

My question of how Gilead comes to be is no longer a question. And I see nothing that will stop it. You might as well start changing the border signs: “Welcome to Gilead.”

Update, June 20, 2022: When I was defending my dissertation, sensing the rage of authoritarian populism, I predicted that Donald Trump would win the White House in 2016.

As Trump kept spiraling ever downwards in his rhetoric, being offensive toward more and more people, I walked back that prediction. When he won anyway, I figured that some way, somehow, he wouldn’t finish his term. He did and I came to understand him as a sort of black hole, sucking the country ever deeper towards a bottomless gravity well of grievance and hatred.

We know now that, far from feeling ignominy in his 2020 defeat, he claims fraud, that his backers are preparing to ensure they never again lose an election, and that if Trump is able, he will surely run to resume the presidency in 2024.[14]

And if you want a sense of what is now a white Christian nationalist[15] rage, take a look at the Texas Republican platform.[16] Even as they are about to win control of the entire country,[17] and to impose white Christian nationalism on all of us,[18] they’re talking about secession[19] from a country that, in large swaths, mostly shares their values, but mostly in urban areas, often does not.

This is madness. It is also fury. Fury that remains undiminished as it has been for a thousand years.[20]

Update, June 24, 2022: The U.S. Supreme Court today overruled Roe v. Wade.[21]

Update, July 28, 2022:

This fall’s election will test whether there are political consequences for the Pennsylvania Republicans who played significant roles on Jan. 6 — or if they’ll grow more empowered ahead of the next presidential race, when Donald Trump could again be on the ballot and Pennsylvania will again be a pivotal battleground in deciding who wins the presidency.[22]

I can’t tell you how much I hope I’m wrong about this. But there’s a reason these white Christian natioaalists are so bold and that is simply that they enjoy broad and enthusiastic support across Pennsylvania. I can’t tell you how many Confederate flags I saw prior to the January 6 coup attempt and I can’t tell you how many Donald Trump campaign flags, both still up from the 2020 election and and anticipating his 2024, I’ve seen, especially in southwestern Pennsylvania.

There might be moderate Republicans in Pennsylvania[23] but they most certainly did not prevail in the primary;[24] Josh Shapiro will need their votes when “[p]olls suggest the election will mainly be a referendum on a deeply unpopular [Joe] Biden, his Democratic allies, and the state of the U.S. economy.”[25]

Y’all know I don’t trust surveys when response rates are in the single digits[26] (for the methodology to be valid, the response rate should be at least ninety percent and with the response rates pollsters are actually seeing, there is absolutely no validity whatsoever in extrapolating from respondents to non-respondents). In this case, however, I suspect the pollsters are right.

There is certainly revulsion at the events of January 6, 2021. But it is limited to people who care about politics and, frankly, around Pennsylvania, people would much rather talk about sports.

Republican control of the U.S. House, meanwhile, hinges on a handful of swing districts, including several in Pennsylvania. A GOP majority could make the 2024 election more vulnerable if there’s another push to subvert the will of the voters. Most of the chamber’s Republicans — including 8 of Pennsylvania’s 9 GOP House members — voted to throw out Pennsylvania’s 2020 results, but were overruled by the chamber’s Democratic majority. (Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, of Bucks County, was the lone Republican exception from Pennsylvania).[27]

This is how Gilead happens.[28]

  1. [1]Margaret Atwood, Handmaid’s Tale (New York: Anchor, 1998).↩
  2. [2]Josh Gerstein, “What falls after Roe? Liberals warn of a privacy rights nightmare,” Politico, May 3, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/03/supreme-court-abortion-privacy-rights-00029871; Josh Gerstein and Alexander Ward, “Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows,” Politico, May 2, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473; Josh Gerstein, Alexander Ward, and Ryan Lizza, “Alito’s draft opinion overturning Roe is still the only one circulated inside Supreme Court,” Politico, May 11, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/alito-abortion-draft-opinion-roe-00031648; Peter Hamby, “The Dark Truth Behind the SCOTUS Ruling,” Puck News, May 9, 2022, https://puck.news/the-dark-truth-behind-the-scotus-ruling/; Molly Jong-Fast, “My Mother Was Wrong,” Atlantic, May 3, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/supreme-court-overturn-abortion-peaceful-protest/629746/; Molly Jong-Fast, “It’s Mask Off for the Supreme Court,” Atlantic, May 12, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/627d0d9366d6b500218d7450/supreme-court-partisanship-roe-v-wade/; Amy Davidson Sorkin, “How Alito’s Draft Opinion on Abortion Rights Would Change America,” New Yorker, May 8, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/16/how-alitos-draft-opinion-on-abortion-rights-would-change-america↩
  3. [3]Alexandra Martinez, “Birth control, gay and interracial marriage, and more may be at risk if Roe v. Wade falls,” Prism, May 5, 2022, https://prismreports.org/2022/05/05/civil-rights-roe-v-wade/↩
  4. [4]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  5. [5]David Benfell, “My 2024 forecast,” Not Housebroken, June 17, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/10/my-2024-forecast/↩
  6. [6]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  7. [7]Greg Sargent, “Stunning Trump revelations raise fears of a dark, violent future,” Washington Post, June 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/17/trump-revelations-jan-6-hearings-violent-future/↩
  8. [8]Farnoush Amiri and Michael Balsamo, “Jan. 6 panel puts Garland in ‘precarious’ spot, ups pressure,” Associated Press, April 1, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-merrick-garland-donald-trump-f70143880cb9be8a0610edcad1ed18e8↩
  9. [9]Greg Sargent, “Stunning Trump revelations raise fears of a dark, violent future,” Washington Post, June 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/17/trump-revelations-jan-6-hearings-violent-future/↩
  10. [10]David Benfell, “My 2024 forecast,” Not Housebroken, June 17, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/10/my-2024-forecast/↩
  11. [11]David Benfell, “The Democrats as the danger within, enabling the Republicans,” Not Housebroken, June 17, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/06/14/the-democrats-as-the-danger-within-enabling-the-republicans/↩
  12. [12]Greg Sargent, “Stunning Trump revelations raise fears of a dark, violent future,” Washington Post, June 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/17/trump-revelations-jan-6-hearings-violent-future/↩
  13. [13]Ishaan Tharoor, “The Orbanization of America: How to capture a democracy,” Washington Post, May 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/18/orban-democracy-trump-united-states-elections-hungary/; Ishaan Tharoor, “The troubled paradox of U.S. democracy,” Washington Post, June 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/06/17/democracy-american-global-decline-backsliding/↩
  14. [14]Tina Nguyen, “To Be or Not to Be: Trump’s Big 2024 Question,” Puck News, September 13, 2021, https://puck.news/trumps-2024-question/↩
  15. [15]David Benfell, “My 2024 forecast,” Not Housebroken, June 20, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/10/my-2024-forecast/↩
  16. [16]Bill Chappell, “Texas GOP’s new platform says Biden didn’t really win. It also calls for secession,” National Public Radio, June 20, 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/06/20/1106229988/texas-gops-new-platform-says-biden-didnt-really-win-it-also-calls-for-secession; Dana Milbank, “Texas Republicans want to secede? Good riddance,” Washington Post, June 20, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/20/texas-gop-platform-secession-theocracy/↩
  17. [17]David Benfell, “My 2024 forecast,” Not Housebroken, June 20, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/10/my-2024-forecast/↩
  18. [18]David Benfell, “Start changing the border signs: ‘Welcome to Gilead,’” Not Housebroken, June 18, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/06/18/start-changing-the-border-signs-welcome-to-gilead/↩
  19. [19]Bill Chappell, “Texas GOP’s new platform says Biden didn’t really win. It also calls for secession,” National Public Radio, June 20, 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/06/20/1106229988/texas-gops-new-platform-says-biden-didnt-really-win-it-also-calls-for-secession; Dana Milbank, “Texas Republicans want to secede? Good riddance,” Washington Post, June 20, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/20/texas-gop-platform-secession-theocracy/↩
  20. [20]David Benfell, “Barack Obama asks, ‘Why is it that the folks that won the last election are so mad all the time?’” Not Housebroken, November 4, 2018, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/11/04/barack-obama-asks-why-is-it-that-the-folks-that-won-the-last-election-are-so-mad-all-the-time/↩
  21. [21]Brent Kendall and Jess Bravin, “Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade, Eliminates Constitutional Right to Abortion,” Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-overturns-roe-v-wade-eliminates-constitutional-right-to-abortion-11656080124↩
  22. [22]Jonathan Tamari, “Trump’s ‘Stop the Steal’ allies are back on the ballot in Pa., and could win more power over the next election,” Philadelphia Inquirer, July 28, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-jan-6-2022-elections-mastriano-shapiro-20220728.html↩
  23. [23]Chris Brennan, “‘Mastriano is unacceptable’: A group of Pennsylvania Republicans is organizing to support Shapiro,” Philadelphia Inquirer, July 6, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/josh-shapiro-doug-mastriano-governor-republicans-endorsements-20220706.html; Julian Routh, “Group of Pa. Republicans bucking party to endorse Democrat Josh Shapiro for governor,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, July 6, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/07/06/republican-endorsement-pennsylvania-governor-race-democrat-josh-shapiro-doug-mastriano-candidates/stories/202207050085↩
  24. [24]Rachel Bade, Eugene Daniels, and Ryan Lizza, “Takeaways from the biggest primary night of the year,” Politico, May 18, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/05/18/takeaways-from-the-biggest-primary-night-of-the-year-00033345; Greg Sargent, “Say it clearly: Republicans just nominated a pro-Trump insurrectionist,” Washington Post, May 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/18/doug-mastriano-insurrectionist/; David Siders, “‘Beware what you wish for’: 5 takeaways from a key primary night,” Politico, May 18, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/18/pennsylvania-north-carolina-oregon-primary-election-takeaways-00033339↩
  25. [25]Jonathan Tamari, “Trump’s ‘Stop the Steal’ allies are back on the ballot in Pa., and could win more power over the next election,” Philadelphia Inquirer, July 28, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-jan-6-2022-elections-mastriano-shapiro-20220728.html?clickText=in-pennsylvanias-election-this-fall↩
  26. [26]Dan Balz, “2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says,” Washington Post, July 18, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html; David Byler, “Polling is broken. No one knows how to fix it,” Washington Post, July 22, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/22/polling-is-broken-no-one-knows-how-fix-it/; Mona Chalabi, “The pollsters were wrong – again. Here’s what we know so far,” Guardian, November 4, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/the-pollsters-were-wrong-again-heres-what-we-know-so-far; David A. Graham, “The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy,” Atlantic, November 4, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/; Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/; Steven Shepard, “Report: Phone polls aren’t dead yet,” Politico, May 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/pollsters-phone-polls-238409; Steven Shepard, “Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling,” Politico, April 13, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044↩
  27. [27]Jonathan Tamari, “Trump’s ‘Stop the Steal’ allies are back on the ballot in Pa., and could win more power over the next election,” Philadelphia Inquirer, July 28, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-jan-6-2022-elections-mastriano-shapiro-20220728.html↩
  28. [28]David Benfell, “Start changing the border signs: ‘Welcome to Gilead,’” Not Housebroken, June 24, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/06/18/start-changing-the-border-signs-welcome-to-gilead/↩