About Elon Musk’s Twitter poll and about Twitter polls generally

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Portrait of Elon Musk. Photograph by Debbie Rowe, July 13, 2018, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

The first thing to understand about Elon Musk’s poll on Twitter, asking whether Donald Trump should return to the platform, which is true of any poll on Twitter, is that it does not rely on representative sample. It is rather what is called a “snowball” sample. Musk has his followers, many of whom saw and responded to the poll, some of whom retweeted it, so that others, including his non-followers might respond. As word spreads, some other folks on Twitter looked on Musk’s timeline and found the poll, responding and retweeting in turn. Read more →

Move along, folks, nothing to see here

benfell

See update for November 24, 2022, at end of post.

It is almost always a bad idea to look at opinion pieces of any sort in the Wall Street Journal, and this[1] is no exception. Read more →

  1. [1]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Orbán and the Collapse of the Trump Intellectuals,” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/orban-and-the-collapse-of-the-trump-intellectuals-hungary-national-conservatives-brussels-european-union-money-legal-corruption-reform-11668696725↩

Means to wealthy ends

benfell


Fig. 1. Drawing attributed to Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner, 1874, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

If ever you were looking for evidence that government has been captured by capitalism, consider this formulation:

The prime minister [of the United Kingdom] and the chancellor have attempted to prepare the ground for a bleak autumn statement, saying that everybody should expect higher taxes and arguing that financial markets were expecting deep cuts to public spending.

Speaking en route to the G20 in Bali, Rishi Sunak told reporters that the reason financial markets were no longer in turmoil was because they expected the government to clamp down on borrowing and squeeze spending.[1]

Read more →

  1. [1]Aletha Adu and Jessica Elgot, “Sunak says higher taxes and spending cuts needed to satisfy markets,” Guardian, November 13, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/nov/13/sunak-says-higher-taxes-and-spending-cuts-needed-to-satisfy-markets↩

The conundrum for white Christian nationalism

benfell

See update for November 13, 2022, at end of post.


Fig. 1. “The battle of Gettysburg, Pa. July 3d. 1863, depicting the Battle of Gettysburg, fought July 1—3, 1863. The battle was part of the American Civil War and was won by the North. Hand-colored lithograph by Currier and Ives.” Nathaniel Currier and James Merrit, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain

I’m still picking up the pieces here, but it is clear that I was right to point to a couple wild cards, namely the right to an abortion and Donald Trump, at least in this election and, perhaps, in 2024.[1] It is also clear that Republicans have overstepped with white Christian nationalism[2] and that Donald Trump’s grievances aren’t the winning campaign argument he assumed they were.[3] Read more →

  1. [1]David Benfell, “The really, really, really wild wildcards in the 2022 and 2024 elections,” Not Housebroken, November 10, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/17/the-really-really-really-wild-wildcards-in-the-2022-and-2024-elections/↩
  2. [2]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382↩
  3. [3]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382; Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “One likely 2024 GOP contender triumphed on election night. It wasn’t Donald Trump,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Jonathan Freedland, “The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump,” Guardian, November 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump; David Lauter, “The midterm’s big loser: Trump suffers multiple defeats,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2022-11-09/the-midterms-big-loser-trump-suffers-multiple-defeats-essential-politics↩

The derangement of white Christian nationalism

benfell

See update for November 9, 2022, at end of post.

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Fig. 1. Photograph by author, August 25, 2020.

One of the things we learn with systems theory is to embrace paradox, to understand it as the rule rather than the exception. And so it is with white Christian nationalists:

Read more →

The conundrum of so-called ‘moderation’

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Written of Israeli election results,[1] this should sound familiar:

The most eye-catching projected result is the performance of far-right firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir and his Jewish Power party, which, as part of a bloc of other right-wing parties, secured what may be the third biggest tranche of seats in the Knesset. No matter the steady rightward shift of Israeli politics over the last two decades, Ben-Gvir’s extremism was until not long ago seen as beyond the pale. As my [Ishaan Tharoor’s] colleagues detailed, he has his roots in the overtly racist Kach party, which was founded by radical American Rabbi Meir Kahane and banned by Israel for its racist and violent incitement. Ben-Gvir was once dubbed “the David Duke of Israel” and lionized Baruch Goldstein, the American Israeli terrorist who killed 29 Palestinian worshipers at Hebron’s Cave of the Patriarchs in 1994.[2]

Read more →

  1. [1]Michael Bachner, “With 86% of votes tallied, Netanyahu headed for decisive comeback victory,” Times of Israel, November 2, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-85-of-votes-tallied-netanyahu-on-verge-of-breaking-deadlock-regaining-power/↩
  2. [2]Ishaan Tharoor, “After Israel’s election, it’s the Palestinians who need to vote,” Washington Post, November 2, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/11/02/palestinian-vote-election-israel/↩

Attempts to automate the policing of hate speech are doomed to ludicrity

benfell

See update for November 2, 2022, at end of post.

One of the first things an undergraduate in Communication learns is that language is arbitrary, ambiguous, and abstract.

This is a problem when seeking to police hate speech, especially for artificial intelligence idiots, and likely explains much of the idiocy I have described previously.[1] To explain why, I will explore each of those terms used to describe language to Communication undergraduates. Read more →

  1. [1]David Benfell, “Our new Satan: artificial idiocy and big data mining,” Not Housebroken, April 5, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/01/13/our-new-satan-artificial-idiocy-and-big-data-mining/↩

To Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey

benfell

Dear Mayor Gainey,

In your inaugural address, you promised “a city where economic opportunity is abundant for everyone, a city where affordability isn’t a luxury, and a city that is prepared to lead into the future, . . . [to] establish[] policies that create and sustain investments in literacy, career and workforce development, civic infrastructure and housing options,”[1] “‘that Pittsburgh [will] also [be] a leader in community and police relations, economic inclusion, affordability,’ and ‘transportation access.’”[2] Read more →

  1. [1]Julia Felton, “Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey promises to unite city in inaugural address,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, January 3, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-mayor-ed-gainey-promises-to-unite-city-in-inaugural-address/↩
  2. [2]Jordana Rosenfeld, “Ed Gainey sworn in as Pittsburgh’s first Black mayor; addresses questions on policing,” Pittsburgh City Paper, January 3, 2022, https://www.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/ed-gainey-sworn-in-as-pittsburghs-first-black-mayor-addresses-questions-on-policing/Content?oid=20862169↩

It might be time to bring back frontal lobotomies

benfell

See update for December 26, 2022, at end of post.


Fig. 1. Photograph via Oren Segal on Twitter, October 23, 2022,[1] fair use.

Honestly, I try, desperately in fact, to ignore Kanye West, whose musical genre I do not appreciate and who obviously suffers from serious mental health issues,[2] along with the entire Kardashian clan, which is just too, too much in every pathetic way imaginable. Read more →

  1. [1]Oren Segal, “Hate in America: Yesterday, the head of an antisemitic and white supremacist group (and his supporters) dropped banners over the 405 in Los Angeles. One banner read, ‘Kanye is right about the Jews,’ Twitter, October 23, 2022, https://twitter.com/orensegal/status/1584132843285794816↩
  2. [2]British Broadcasting Corporation, “Kim Kardashian West addresses husband Kanye West’s mental health,” July 22, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53501482↩

Because, somehow, Russian imperialism is okay

benfell

Back in March, I wrote,

Isaac Chotiner’s interview with Andrei Soldatov[1] is the second I’ve seen in which the subject doubts that Vladimir Putin is indeed a madman.[2] But Soldatov also points to 1) Putin’s seemingly psychopathic reaction when questioned about deaths he is responsible for; 2) Putin’s increasingly small circle of people he trusts, suggesting paranoia; 3) a hierarchy of power in which underlings are afraid to report truthfully to their superiors; and 4) Putin’s apparent conviction that he knows better than anyone else,[3] something also observed by Stephen Kotkin in David Remnick’s interview.[4] I’m not a psychologist but neither are these otherwise extremely well-informed folks affirming Putin’s sanity, and I think there are definitely questions here to be asked of a psychologist.[5]

Read more →

  1. [1]Isaac Chotiner, “The Purges in Putin’s Shrinking Inner Circle,” New Yorker, March 22, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-purges-in-putins-shrinking-inner-circle↩
  2. [2]Isaac Chotiner, “The Purges in Putin’s Shrinking Inner Circle,” New Yorker, March 22, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-purges-in-putins-shrinking-inner-circle; David Remnick, “The Weakness of the Despot,” New Yorker, March 11, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin↩
  3. [3]Isaac Chotiner, “The Purges in Putin’s Shrinking Inner Circle,” New Yorker, March 22, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-purges-in-putins-shrinking-inner-circle↩
  4. [4]David Remnick, “The Weakness of the Despot,” New Yorker, March 11, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin↩
  5. [5]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, October 7, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩