When experts are not experts

“The key dividing line in the U.S.,” writes John Feffer of the polarization that has bedeviled the Obama presidency, that lies behind the ‘Brexit’ vote, and that now portends a possible Donald Trump presidency, “had little to do with Republican vs. Democrat, rich vs. poor, or liberal vs. conservative.”[1] The “rich vs. poor” part of that is an audacious claim. It excludes folks who, as Bill Black is careful to point out, do not merely “feel” “left behind” but are “in fact being left in the dust by the financial elites,”[2] and who, as Tracy Thompson describes them, “have been banished to life far away and out of sight” in what she describes as a “weirdly depopulated landscape.”[3] That they might not be counted among the poor is wholly contradicted by the remainder of Feffer’s article.[4]

Thompson goes on to explain that “the small-town and rural residents cheerfully extolled by Sarah Palin as the people who ‘grow our food and run our factories’ are either unemployed, working in a service industry, or making hundred-mile daily commutes to work.”[5] Similarly, Barbara Ehrenbach describes people who work abusive jobs and live in motels or in their cars because they can never get together enough money for an apartment.[6] These people are certainly not rich or middle class. They may be working class but we need to be clear about Feffer’s distinction without a difference: People in such circumstances are poor, even destitute.

Whatever one makes of that distinction, the “consequential divide between cosmopolitans who view the future with hope and those who have been left behind and have seen their economic situations and ways of life deteriorate”[7] has suddenly gotten some attention in the wake of the ‘Brexit’ vote in the United Kingdom to detach the country, which might not be so united for very long,[8] from the European Union.[9]

Those who voted for Brexit and those who might vote for Trump are often thought to lack education[10] but to a limited degree, I identify with these folks, certainly more than I do the so-called “cosmopolitans.” Despite my education, I am squarely among those who “have seen their economic situations and ways of life deteriorate.”[11] I in fact returned to school in 2003 precisely because 1) I saw that I was no longer able to support myself, 2) student loans would help to make ends meet, 3) I hoped that education would help me to be more employable, and 4) I figured that further education would at least not make me less employable. It hasn’t worked out; in the fifteen years since the dot-com crash, I have finished a Bachelor’s, a Master’s, and a Ph.D., accumulated over $300,000 in student loan debt, and still utterly failed to find gainful employment.

On the one hand, higher education should not be reduced to “job training.”[12] On the other hand, there ought to be something I can do to help myself, my rage at my condition is formidable, and I wound up just barely coming down on the side of Brexit largely because I hate the neoliberals I blame for my condition a bit more than I do authoritarian populist xenophobes.[13] The Brexit outcome shows I am not alone.[14] But even so, I continue to hear from people who suppose I ought to have endorsed the view of so-called “experts” who uniformly opposed Brexit.[15] George Monbiot captures this irony:

It’s not as if the system that’s now crashing around us was functioning. The vote could be seen as a self-inflicted wound, or it could be seen as the eruption of an internal wound, inflicted over many years by an economic oligarchy on the poor and the forgotten. The bogus theories on which our politics and economics are founded were going to collide with reality one day; the only questions were how and when.[16]

In contrast to nearly every other segment of the global population, economic globalization has harmed the “global upper middle class.” Branko Milanovic, World Bank, 2012, reproduced by Bloomberg, June 27, 2016, fair use.
Fig. 1. In contrast to nearly every other segment of the global population, economic globalization has harmed the “global upper middle class.” Branko Milanovic, World Bank, 2012, reproduced by Bloomberg, June 27, 2016, fair use.

If these “experts” are indeed so “expert,” why can Monbiot correctly label their theories “bogus?”[17] Why is it only now that they are noticing that “the [erstwhile] middle classes in developed nations failed to see this rising tide [of economic globalization] lift their boats” even though an “elephant chart” documenting the condition (figure 1) has been available since 2012,[18] and social scientists have been writing about widening social inequality for decades?

Indeed, the performance of economic and political experts in recent years has hardly been inspiring. Most missed signs that the global financial system was headed for a crash in 2008. Weapons of mass destruction were never found in Iraq. Even the rise of Trump and the potential for Brexit were ignored by most political cognoscenti for far too long.[19]

In fact, if there is one oddity since the financial crisis that began in 2007, it is that economists continue to be taken seriously and their prescriptions continue to be adhered to despite 1) ethical lapses; 2) their frequently expressed preference for shoddy work, ideology, and “theories” that simply have not proved themselves out in reality; and 3) even their own self-criticism. Some of this lies in an undue faith in forecasts. Some of it is that economists’ utterings have suited political and financial elite preferences, especially toward eviscerating the social safety net.[20] Some of it resembles a desperation for control in the face of the sometimes overwhelmingly uncontrollable. And I think some of it stems from a need for advice even when all sources for that advice have been discredited.

But some of it reaches deeper into our culture and a preference for allegedly “objective” and “reliable” data that in the name of reducing fallibility, reduces human experience to the superficial and devalues it[21] while also effectively privileging the powerful[22] and implicitly devaluing the ordinary experience of colonized (broadly meaning nearly everyone who is not part of a financial, political, religious, or military elite[23]) people. This not only enables “expert” hubris but deprives even a vast majority of people of a voice when their experience does not conform to elite expectations. Which means that the Brexit outcome should be a lot less surprising than it was.

Epistemological criticism is just that. It fails to offer a solution. Most human scientists would argue not merely for qualitative but a wider variety of methodologies to re-empower disempowered voices. Judging from a change in tone I see between the third[24] and fourth editions of The SAGE Handbook of Qualitative Research, [25] I believe this argument is being lost, not on the merits but rather under the prevalence of neoliberal ideology, and that not only in academia[26] but in society as a whole, we are moving in the opposite direction. That’s a problem that will lead to a lot more suffering than we’ve seen already.

  1. [1]John Feffer, “The Most Important Election of Your Life (Is Not This Year),” TomDispatch, June 26, 2016, http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176157/tomgram%3A_john_feffer%2C_donald_trump_and_america_b/
  2. [2]Bill Black, “The Terrible Cost to Democrats and Our Nation of Ignoring Tom Frank’s Warnings,” Naked Capitalism, June 30, 2016, http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/bill-black-the-terrible-cost-to-democrats-and-our-nation-of-ignoring-tom-franks-warnings.html
  3. [3]Tracy Thompson, The New Mind of the South (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2013), p. 144
  4. [4]John Feffer, “The Most Important Election of Your Life (Is Not This Year),” TomDispatch, June 26, 2016, http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176157/tomgram%3A_john_feffer%2C_donald_trump_and_america_b/
  5. [5]Tracy Thompson, The New Mind of the South (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2013), p. 150.
  6. [6]Barbara Ehrenreich, Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By in America (New York: Owl, 2001).
  7. [7]Kathleen R. McNamara, “Brexit’s False Democracy: What the Vote Really Revealed,” Foreign Affairs, June 28, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2016-06-28/brexits-false-democracy
  8. [8]Rebecca Byrne, “London Must Take Back Control, Says Mayor,” Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2016, https://city.wsj.com/stories/365398c1-87d7-4c91-8421-829cb78ac161.redirect; Henry Farrell, “The Irish Question: The Consequences of Brexit,” Foreign Affairs, June 28, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ireland/2016-06-28/irish-question; Simone McCarthy, “Morning after Brexit, Scotland and N. Ireland reconsider ties to Britain,” Christian Science Monitor, June 24, 2016, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2016/0624/Morning-after-Brexit-Scotland-and-N.-Ireland-reconsider-ties-to-Britain; Jamie McGeever, “JP Morgan says Scottish independence, new currency now its ‘base case,'” Reuters, June 29, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-jpmorgan-idUSKCN0ZF15Z; Bethan McKernan, “Here’s what Sadiq Khan has to say about London independence,” Independent, June 28, 2016, http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/heres-what-sadiq-khan-has-to-say-about-london-independence–Wyx3gxVn1BZ
  9. [9]Timothy B. Lee, “Brexit: Britain just voted to leave the EU,” Vox, June 24, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12012930/brexit-britain-votes-leave
  10. [10]Henry Farrell, “The Irish Question: The Consequences of Brexit,” Foreign Affairs, June 28, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ireland/2016-06-28/irish-question; John Feffer, “The Most Important Election of Your Life (Is Not This Year),” TomDispatch, June 26, 2016, http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176157/tomgram%3A_john_feffer%2C_donald_trump_and_america_b/; Kathleen R. McNamara, “Brexit’s False Democracy: What the Vote Really Revealed,” Foreign Affairs, June 28, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2016-06-28/brexits-false-democracy; Jim Tankersley, “Britain just killed globalization as we know it,” Washington Post, June 25, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/25/great-britain-just-killed-globalization-as-we-know-it/; Luke Kawa, “Get Ready to See This Globalization ‘Elephant Chart’ Over and Over Again,” Bloomberg, June 27, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/get-ready-to-see-this-globalization-elephant-chart-over-and-over-again;
  11. [11]Kathleen R. McNamara, “Brexit’s False Democracy: What the Vote Really Revealed,” Foreign Affairs, June 28, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2016-06-28/brexits-false-democracy
  12. [12]Scott Carlson, “A Symposium Cautions Against Conflating Education With Job Training,” Chronicle of Higher Education, September 18, 2015, http://chronicle.com/article/A-Symposium-Cautions-Against/233209/; Aviva Chomsky, “The Battle for the Soul of American Higher Education: Student Protest, the Black Lives Matter Movement, and the Rise of the Corporate University,” TomDispatch, May 22, 2016, http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176143/tomgram%3A_aviva_chomsky%2C_will_the_millennial_movement_rebuild_the_ivory_tower_or_be_crushed_by_it/; Michael W. Clune, “Degrees of Ignorance,” Chronicle of Higher Education, December 6, 2015, http://chronicle.com/article/The-Gutting-of-Gen-Ed/234453; Paul Jay, “How Not to Defend the Liberal Arts,” Inside Higher Ed, October 27, 2014, https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2014/10/27/essay-state-liberal-arts; Eric Johnson, “Business Can Pay to Train Its Own Work Force,” Chronicle of Higher Education, June 22, 2016, http://chronicle.com/article/Business-Can-Pay-to-Train-Its/231015/
  13. [13]David Benfell, “The ‘Brexit’ vote may signify the end of the illusion of ‘progress,’” Not Housebroken, June 26, 2016, https://disunitedstates.org/?p=9023
  14. [14]Luke Kawa, “Get Ready to See This Globalization ‘Elephant Chart’ Over and Over Again,” Bloomberg, June 27, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/get-ready-to-see-this-globalization-elephant-chart-over-and-over-again; Kathleen R. McNamara, “Brexit’s False Democracy: What the Vote Really Revealed,” Foreign Affairs, June 28, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2016-06-28/brexits-false-democracy; Jim Tankersley, “Britain just killed globalization as we know it,” Washington Post, June 25, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/25/great-britain-just-killed-globalization-as-we-know-it/
  15. [15]British Broadcasting Corporation, “Brexit: David Cameron to quit after UK votes to leave EU,” June 24, 2016, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36615028; Economist, “How to minimise the damage of Britain’s senseless, self-inflicted blow,” June 24, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how-minimise-damage-britains-senseless-self-inflicted-blow-tragic-split; Matthias Matthijs, “Britain’s Point of No Return,” Foreign Affairs, June 21, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2016-06-21/britain-s-point-no-return; Crispin Odey, quoted in Josie Cox and Giles Turner, “Traders React to Brexit Vote,” Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2016, https://city.wsj.com/stories/53cb4b01-3826-4bc6-9451-332d9a4efda6.redirect; Jethro Mullen, Ivana Kottasova, and Patrick Gillespie, “Dow plunges over 600 points as U.K. ‘earthquake’ crushes global markets,” CNN, June 24, 2016, http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/23/investing/eu-referendum-markets/index.html; Jean Pisani-Ferry, “Why Are Voters Ignoring Experts?” Project Syndicate, July 1, 2016, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-voters-ignoring-experts-by-jean-pisani-ferry-2016-07; Griff Witte, “9 out of 10 experts agree: Britain doesn’t trust the experts on Brexit,” Washington Post, June 21, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/9-out-of-10-experts-agree-britain-doesnt-trust-the-experts-on-brexit/2016/06/21/2ccc134a-34a6-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html; Griff Witte, Karla Adam, and Dan Balz, “Britain shocks world, breaks with European Union; British leader steps down,” Washington Post, June 24, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/britain-shocks-the-world-by-voting-to-leave-the-european-union/2016/06/24/3d100f4e-3998-11e6-af02-1df55f0c77ff_story.html
  16. [16]George Monbiot, “Roots in the Rubble,” June 29, 2016, http://www.monbiot.com/2016/06/29/roots-in-the-rubble/
  17. [17]George Monbiot, “Roots in the Rubble,” June 29, 2016, http://www.monbiot.com/2016/06/29/roots-in-the-rubble/
  18. [18]Luke Kawa, “Get Ready to See This Globalization ‘Elephant Chart’ Over and Over Again,” Bloomberg, June 27, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/get-ready-to-see-this-globalization-elephant-chart-over-and-over-again
  19. [19]Griff Witte, “9 out of 10 experts agree: Britain doesn’t trust the experts on Brexit,” Washington Post, June 21, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/9-out-of-10-experts-agree-britain-doesnt-trust-the-experts-on-brexit/2016/06/21/2ccc134a-34a6-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html
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[20]Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani, “‘There will be growth in the spring’: How well do economists predict turning points?” Vox, April 14, 2014, http://www.voxeu.org/article/predicting-economic-turning-points; Richard Alford, “Why Economists Have No Shame – Undue Confidence, False Precision, Risk and Monetary Policy,” Naked Capitalism, July 19, 2012, http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/07/richard-alford-why-economists-have-no-shame-undue-confidence-false-precision-risk-and-monetary-policy.html; Robert Atkinson and Michael Lind, “Econ 101 is killing America,” Salon, July 8, 2013, http://www.salon.com/2013/07/08/how_%e2%80%9cecon_101%e2%80%9d_is_killing_america/; Dean Baker, “Discredited Harvard Austerity-Pushers Reinhart and Rogoff Keep Lying to Protect Themselves,” Alternet, April 26, 2013, http://www.alternet.org/economy/discredited-harvard-austerity-pushers-reinhart-and-rogoff-keep-lying-protect-themselves; Bruce Bartlett, “Keynes and Keynesianism,” New York Times, May 14, 2013, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/keynes-and-keynesianism/; Ha-Joon Chang and Jonathan Aldred, “After the crash, we need a revolution in the way we teach economics,” Guardian, May 10, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/11/after-crash-need-revolution-in-economics-teaching-chang-aldred; Jefferson Cowie, “Why Are Economists So Small-Minded?” Chronicle of Higher Education, February 7, 2016, http://chronicle.com/article/Why-Are-Economists-So/235159; Barry Eichengreen, “Economists, Remove Your Blinders,” Chronicle of Higher Education, January 12, 2015, http://chronicle.com/article/Economists-Remove-Your/151057/; Eugenio Facci, “EU austerity hawks shrug off criticism of flawed academic paper,” Christian Science Monitor, May 17, 2013, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0517/EU-austerity-hawks-shrug-off-criticism-of-flawed-academic-paper; Ross Gittins, “Economists facing flak over ethics,” Sydney Morning Herald, June 23, 2014, http://www.smh.com.au/business/economists-facing-flak-over-ethics-20140622-3am9r.html; Alan Greenspan, “Why I Didn’t See The Financial Crisis Coming,” Foreign Policy, November, 2013, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140161/alan-greenspan/never-saw-it-coming; David Kocieniewski, “Academics Who Defend Wall St. Reap Reward,” New York Times, December 27, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/business/academics-who-defend-wall-st-reap-reward.html; Mike Konczal, “Reinhart/Rogoff-gate isn’t the first time austerians have used bad data,” Washington Post, April 20, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/20/reinhartrogoff-gate-isnt-the-first-time-austerians-have-used-bad-data/; Paul Krugman, “How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?” New York Times, September 2, 2009, https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html; Paul Krugman, “When Economics Gets Political,” January 3, 2012, http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/5864:when-economics-gets-political; Paul Krugman, “The Austerity Debacle,” New York Times, January 29, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/30/opinion/krugman-the-austerity-debacle.html; Paul Krugman, “Economics in the Crisis,” New York Times, March 5, 2012, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/05/economics-in-the-crisis; Paul Krugman, “Earth to Ben Bernanke,” New York Times, April 24, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/magazine/chairman-bernanke-should-listen-to-professor-bernanke.html; Paul Krugman, “Economics, Good and Bad,” New York Times, June 26, 2012, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/economics-good-and-bad/; Paul Krugman, “Triumph of the Wrong?” New York Times, October 11, 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/opinion/krugman-triumph-of-the-wrong.html; Paul Krugman, “When Prophecy Fails,” New York Times, December 23, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/24/opinion/krugman-when-prophecy-fails.html; Paul Krugman, “Dwindling Deficit Disorder,” New York Times, March 10, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/opinion/krugman-dwindling-deficit-disorder.html; Paul Krugman, “The Excel Depression,” New York Times, April 18, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/opinion/krugman-the-excel-depression.html; Paul Krugman, “Academic Non-Obscurity,” New York Times, April 25, 2013, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/academic-non-obscurity/; Paul Krugman, “The 1 Percent’s Solution,” New York Times, April 25, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/krugman-the-one-percents-solution.html; Paul Krugman, “How the Case for Austerity Has Crumbled,” review of The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire, by Neil Irwin, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea, by Mark Blyth, and The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America, by David A. 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Why? It doesn’t work,” Independent, April 25, 2013, http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-age-of-austerity-is-over-why-it-doesnt-work-8586201.html; Noah Smith, “Most of What You Learned in Econ 101 Is Wrong,” Bloomberg, November 24, 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-24/most-of-what-you-learned-in-econ-101-is-wrong; Cass R. Sunstein, “Why Free Markets Make Fools of Us,” review of Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller, New York Review of Books, October 22, 2015, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/oct/22/why-free-markets-make-fools-us/; Mark Thoma, “Crude Sachsism,” Economist’s View, March 10, 2013, http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/03/crude-sachsism.html; Mark Thoma, “Restoring the Public’s Trust in Economists,” Fiscal Times, May 19, 2015, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2015/05/19/Restoring-Public-s-Trust-Economists; Mark Thoma, “Are Economists Driven by Ideology or Evidence?” Fiscal Times, November 3, 2015, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2015/11/03/Are-Economists-Driven-Ideology-or-Evidence; Mark Thoma, “Why the Public Has Stopped Paying Attention to Economists,” Fiscal Times, June 28, 2016, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2016/06/28/Why-Public-Has-Stopped-Paying-Attention-Economists
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