Move along, folks, nothing to see here

benfell

See update for November 24, 2022, at end of post.

It is almost always a bad idea to look at opinion pieces of any sort in the Wall Street Journal, and this[1] is no exception.

That said, Joseph Sternberg is taking a victory lap of sorts. In April, he wrote,

For all the bellyaching about an overweening European bureaucracy, money is the only power Brussels has. That’s no small thing, but it’s something countries can accept or reject relatively freely. If Mr. [Viktor] Orbán really considers the [European Union’s] demands on matters such as the organization of the judiciary to be intolerable affronts to Hungarian sovereignty, he could refuse Brussels’ handouts. He could even propose that Hungary leave the [European Union]. Britain did, and the invading army staging a Reconquista from Belgium has yet to appear.[2]

I will refrain from comment on Sternberg’s choice of the word reconquista, which in the U.S. southwest refers to the prospect of Mexico reclaiming territory it lost in the Mexican-American War. (Hello, white displacement theory!)

It does appear that Viktor Orbán is indeed acquiescing to judicial reform, an important part of the European Union’s notion of the “rule of law,” and indeed because he needs the money.[3] But this is not the whole of Orbán’s competitive authoritarian regime,[4] a type of regime in which, while elections may be held and opposition political parties may exist, incumbents enjoy dictatorial or near-dictatorial power and there is almost no real prospect that they will be evicted from office.[5]

That monetary power relationship seems relatively unimportant to Sternberg,[6] but it was important enough to Orbán, who in August,[7] not just April,[8] basked in the glow of adoring U.S. white Christian nationalists.[9]

And now that Orbán is retreating, at least a bit,[10] and now that the midterm elections in the U.S. have failed to provide a ballyhooed “red wave,”[11] the unenviable task of minimizing the damage has fallen to, among others of course, Sternberg.

We are not, of course, talking merely about Donald Trump and Orbán, but rather a global illiberal comity that certainly includes white Christian nationalism in the U.S. (and Russia,[12] and yes, against cosmopolitan Ukraine,[13] by the way), but is not nearly so limited. We are talking as well about a longstanding Republican project to establish a competitive authoritarian regime in the U.S. and similar right-wing projects elsewhere.

Sternberg does not notice[14] Orbán’s competitive authoritarian regime[15] and writes,

The details of Mr. [Viktor] Orbán’s running palaver with Brussels are abstruse. In the broadest terms, Brussels insists Budapest adopt various legal and anticorruption reforms before disbursing billions of euros from various EU funds to the Hungarian government. Mr. Orbán resists, either as a principled defense of sovereignty or to avoid oversight of how his government is spending Dutch, German, Swedish and other taxpayer money.

From this unpromising straw, the American natcons tried to spin the political gold of an all-out culture war. Mr. Orbán encouraged them, with an assist (witting or otherwise) from the EU elites he claims to despise. Mr. Orbán’s strategic forays into social legislation, especially targeting sexual ethics, sparked feuds with leading European liberals, allowing Mr. Orbán to present himself as a victim of the elites’ cultural preening.[16]

The term ‘war’ here suggests an axis of (often rural, monolithic) illiberals allied against (urban, pluralistic) cosmopolitanism. Such an axis is something I’ve been watching for and inclined to warn against, but as to whether it exists beyond the mutual adoration of Trump, Orbán, Jair Bolsonaro, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and other far right demagogues, while there is certainly a comity here, I cannot tell you there is anything more.

Whether that comity might have developed or still might yet develop into something more is, at least for now, a counterfactual. No, I am not letting down my guard. But also no, I am not telling you that assorted demons have assembled a global army marching to wage the culture war on cosmopolitans they call “elites.” At least not yet.

The trouble here is that even as I am attempting not to overstate the danger, Sternberg seeks to sweep it all away. That there was no “red wave,” Sternberg writes, “is bad news for the class of wannabe court scribes who hoped to carve out careers whispering in such a strongman’s ear, but it is good news for America.”[17] And there you are, folks.

We are not, of course, merely worried about Trump or Orbán or any of the rest. We are talking as well about their supporters, the folks who voted them into office, and many of whom resist electoral verdicts, not just in the U.S., but in, for example, Brazil, where Bolsonaro was recently defeated.[18] We are talking about people who fly Confederate flags and were only embarrassed into taking them down after Trump’s supporters failed in their coup attempt, people who were only shamed into taking down their Trump flags and yard signs when classified materials were retrieved from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence,[19] and then, of course, those few remaining who still have them up. As long as such people exist, and are armed and violent, there is a danger. But Sternberg’s counsel is to move along, nothing to see, here.

Update, November 24, 2022: I had wondered[20] how far Viktor Orbán’s promises[21] actually went to satisfy European Union demands. Joseph Sternberg perceived capitulation,[22] but I guess the European Commission’s answer is indeed, not far enough:[23]

Hungary has failed to adopt promised rule-of-law reforms, the European Commission decided Wednesday, putting billions in EU cash in jeopardy for the country.

The determination comes as Brussels wrangles with Viktor Orbán’s government over the release of both €7.5 billion in regular EU payouts and €5.8 billion in pandemic recovery grants — money the EU has temporarily frozen over democratic backsliding concerns in Hungary.

While the Commission on Wednesday recommended approving Hungary’s plan to spend its recovery funds, it was clear that the country would not actually get the money until it implements 27 specific rule-of-law upgrades.

Meanwhile, the Commission also concluded that Hungary had fallen short in fulfilling a prior pledge to adopt 17 rule-of-law reforms that are needed to access the €7.5 billion in EU funds, which are being held up under a mechanism allowing the EU to freeze funds at risk of graft.[24]

This decision has yet to be ratified. It also calls for an additional 10 reforms, now totaling 27, to roll back Orbán’s competitive authoritarian regime.[25]

  1. [1]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Orbán and the Collapse of the Trump Intellectuals,” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/orban-and-the-collapse-of-the-trump-intellectuals-hungary-national-conservatives-brussels-european-union-money-legal-corruption-reform-11668696725↩
  2. [2]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Hungary Is No Model for Conservatives,” Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hungary-national-social-conservatives-viktor-orban-european-union-election-sex-education-immigration-refugees-woke-virtue-signaling-11649338299↩
  3. [3]Paola Tamma, “Hungary vows to overhaul its judiciary, hoping to unlock EU funds,” Politico, November 7, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-overhaul-judiciary-unlock-eu-funds/↩
  4. [4]Zsuzsanna Szelényi, “How Viktor Orbán Built His Illiberal State,” New Republic, April 5, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165953/viktor-orban-built-illiberal-state↩
  5. [5]Andrew Marantz, “Does Hungary Offer a Glimpse of Our Authoritarian Future?” New Yorker, June 27, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/07/04/does-hungary-offer-a-glimpse-of-our-authoritarian-future↩
  6. [6]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Hungary Is No Model for Conservatives,” Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hungary-national-social-conservatives-viktor-orban-european-union-election-sex-education-immigration-refugees-woke-virtue-signaling-11649338299↩
  7. [7]Ishaan Tharoor, “Orban at CPAC brings the ‘far-right international’ into focus,” Washington Post, August 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/08/04/orban-hungary-far-right-international-cpac-conservative/↩
  8. [8]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Orbán and the Collapse of the Trump Intellectuals,” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/orban-and-the-collapse-of-the-trump-intellectuals-hungary-national-conservatives-brussels-european-union-money-legal-corruption-reform-11668696725↩
  9. [9]Ishaan Tharoor, “Orban at CPAC brings the ‘far-right international’ into focus,” Washington Post, August 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/08/04/orban-hungary-far-right-international-cpac-conservative/↩
  10. [10]Paola Tamma, “Hungary vows to overhaul its judiciary, hoping to unlock EU funds,” Politico, November 7, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-overhaul-judiciary-unlock-eu-funds/↩
  11. [11]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382; Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “One likely 2024 GOP contender triumphed on election night. It wasn’t Donald Trump,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Dan Balz, “The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/midterms-dissatisfied-voters-render-judgments-biden-republicans/; Jonathan Freedland, “The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump,” Guardian, November 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump; David Lauter, “The midterm’s big loser: Trump suffers multiple defeats,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2022-11-09/the-midterms-big-loser-trump-suffers-multiple-defeats-essential-politics; Brian Slodysko, “Election takeaways: No sweep for the Republicans after all,” Associated Press, November 9, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-takeaways-9381d3aaff26d19da95506e045fcd6e1↩
  12. [12]Delia Gallagher, “Pope Francis warns pro-war Russian patriarch not to be ‘Putin’s altar boy,’” CNN, May 4, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/04/europe/pope-francis-patriarch-kirill-ukraine-invasion-intl/index.html; Reuters, “Patriarch urges soldiers to defend ‘peace-loving’ Russia amid Ukraine campaign,” April 3, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/patriarch-urges-soldiers-defend-peace-loving-russia-amid-ukraine-campaign-2022-04-03/↩
  13. [13]Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s ‘Nightmare’ Threat to Europe,” Puck News, December 6, 2021, https://puck.news/putins-nightmare-threat-to-europe/↩
  14. [14]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Orbán and the Collapse of the Trump Intellectuals,” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/orban-and-the-collapse-of-the-trump-intellectuals-hungary-national-conservatives-brussels-european-union-money-legal-corruption-reform-11668696725↩
  15. [15]Zsuzsanna Szelényi, “How Viktor Orbán Built His Illiberal State,” New Republic, April 5, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165953/viktor-orban-built-illiberal-state↩
  16. [16]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Orbán and the Collapse of the Trump Intellectuals,” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/orban-and-the-collapse-of-the-trump-intellectuals-hungary-national-conservatives-brussels-european-union-money-legal-corruption-reform-11668696725↩
  17. [17]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Orbán and the Collapse of the Trump Intellectuals,” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/orban-and-the-collapse-of-the-trump-intellectuals-hungary-national-conservatives-brussels-european-union-money-legal-corruption-reform-11668696725↩
  18. [18]Anthony Faiola, Paulina Villegas, and Gabriela Sá Pessoa, “Lula defeats Bolsonaro to win third term as Brazil’s president,” Washington Post, October 30, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/30/lula-wins-brazil-election/; Mauricio Saverese and Diane Jeantet, “Lula defeats Bolsonaro to again become Brazil’s president,” Associated Press, October 30, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-religion-caribbean-voting-ed2130a095ca42ff1be324a3dea9f355↩
  19. [19]David Benfell, “More questions than answers as Donald Trump flags come down,” Not Housebroken, November 12, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/28/more-questions-than-answers-as-donald-trump-flags-come-down/↩
  20. [20]David Benfell, “In an election that was the Republicans’ to lose, they’re not doing so hot,” Irregular Bullshit, November 9, 2022, https://disunitedstates.com/2022/11/09/in-an-election-that-was-the-republicans-to-lose-theyre-not-doing-so-hot/↩
  21. [21]Paola Tamma, “Hungary vows to overhaul its judiciary, hoping to unlock EU funds,” Politico, November 7, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-overhaul-judiciary-unlock-eu-funds/↩
  22. [22]Joseph C. Sternberg, “Orbán and the Collapse of the Trump Intellectuals,” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/orban-and-the-collapse-of-the-trump-intellectuals-hungary-national-conservatives-brussels-european-union-money-legal-corruption-reform-11668696725↩
  23. [23]Paola Tamma and Jakob Hanke Vela, “Hungary’s EU cash at risk after European Commission concludes reforms fell short,” Politico, November 23, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-eu-funds-hungary-reforms-von-der-leyen-viktor-orban-commision/↩
  24. [24]Paola Tamma and Jakob Hanke Vela, “Hungary’s EU cash at risk after European Commission concludes reforms fell short,” Politico, November 23, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-eu-funds-hungary-reforms-von-der-leyen-viktor-orban-commision/↩
  25. [25]Paola Tamma and Jakob Hanke Vela, “Hungary’s EU cash at risk after European Commission concludes reforms fell short,” Politico, November 23, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-eu-funds-hungary-reforms-von-der-leyen-viktor-orban-commision/↩

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