The conundrum for white Christian nationalism

benfell

See update for November 13, 2022, at end of post.


Fig. 1. “The battle of Gettysburg, Pa. July 3d. 1863, depicting the Battle of Gettysburg, fought July 1—3, 1863. The battle was part of the American Civil War and was won by the North. Hand-colored lithograph by Currier and Ives.” Nathaniel Currier and James Merrit, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain

I’m still picking up the pieces here, but it is clear that I was right to point to a couple wild cards, namely the right to an abortion and Donald Trump, at least in this election and, perhaps, in 2024.[1] It is also clear that Republicans have overstepped with white Christian nationalism[2] and that Donald Trump’s grievances aren’t the winning campaign argument he assumed they were.[3]

It is possible that at least some Republicans will turn to the probably more dangerous Florida governor Ron DeSantis as an alternative to Trump in a bid to improve their fortunes in 2024. That might split the party between Trump’s loyalists and those who want to win elections[4] so they can get back to their long-term goal of establishing a competitive authoritarian regime, in which elections might be held, but they never lose.

The question I’m increasingly turning to is, what do white Christian nationalists do now? They are, after all, a hodgepodge, a unity of multiple tendencies of conservatism I had identified in my dissertation,[5] but also, there will be a variation in the militancy of their response. We will likely see further violence, but I can’t tell you how widespread or how intense.[6]

I think even the truest of believers among white Christian nationalists must surely realize that there is no “silent majority” in their favor. Their sense of righteousness, however, does not rest on majority support or, really, anything of this earth; rather, their epistemology depends on ideals—often little more than fantasy.[7] Electoral defeat is nothing like a refutation for them.

Will there be civil war?[8] Or, speaking more precisely, a resumption of full-scale violence in the 19th century one that arguably never ended?[9] I have to think this less likely.

But the desperation these folks feel, that led them to support Trump even when there was an obvious incoherence in doing so, can only be exacerbated by these results. And desperate people do desperate things.

Update, November 13, 2022:

Voters in the six major battlegrounds where Donald Trump tried to reverse his defeat in 2020 rejected election-denying candidates seeking to control their states’ election systems this year, a resounding signal that Americans have grown weary of the former president’s unfounded claims of widespread fraud.

Candidates for secretary of state in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada who had echoed Trump’s false accusations lost their contests on Tuesday, with the latter race called Saturday night. A fourth candidate never made it out of his May primary in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, one of the nation’s most prominent election deniers lost his bid for governor, a job that would have given him the power to appoint the secretary of state. And in Wisconsin, an election-denying contender’s loss in the governor’s race effectively blocked a move to put election administration under partisan control.[10]

But,

Although many candidates denying the outcome of the 2020 vote came up short in their bids for state office, the U.S. House was a different matter. At least 150 election deniers were projected to win their House races as of Saturday — an increase over the 139 Republicans who voted against the electoral college count following the assault on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob on Jan. 6, 2021.

Overall, more than 170 election deniers on the ballot for the U.S. House, Senate and key statewide offices were projected to win their elections as of Saturday, according to a Washington Post analysis.[11]

Which is to say that we are not, by a very long shot, done hearing about Donald Trump’s grievances.[12]

Even as many election-denying candidates have accepted their defeats quietly, [Donald] Trump has continued to try to stir up his supporters with unsubstantiated claims that fraud is occurring in Nevada and Arizona as ballot counting continues in both states.

“Clark County, Nevada, has a corrupt voting system (be careful Adam!), as do many places in our soon to be Third World Country,” Trump wrote Thursday on his social media site, Truth Social, referring to the Senate candidate, [Adam] Laxalt. “Arizona even said ‘by the end of the week!’ — They want more time to cheat!”[13]

What’s significant here is that such claims are often not a winning campaign argument.

The electorate demands at least the semblance of a candidate who will help them where they live, not just punish the other side. But Republicans can’t just run away from these people [election deniers]. The big donors will think twice about writing checks for yahoos now—but the base demands them.[14]

I think even if I had a better view into Republican politics than I do, it’d still be awfully hard to see how all this shakes out. Abortion rights are another factor, principal for many voters, and even among white Christian nationalists, we’re seeing the possible re-emergence of a split between religious and libertarian conservatives,[15] which overlaps with a split between those Republicans who insist on re-litigating the 2020 election, those like Ron DeSantis who want to actually win elections so they even have the opportunity to advance their competitive authoritarian regime project, and those who think that all of this simply loses elections.[16] And the question of what desperate white Christian nationalists, facing more clearly than ever before an existential loss of the Amerikkka they perceive essential to their own survival, do now[17] remains.

  1. [1]David Benfell, “The really, really, really wild wildcards in the 2022 and 2024 elections,” Not Housebroken, November 10, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/17/the-really-really-really-wild-wildcards-in-the-2022-and-2024-elections/↩
  2. [2]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382↩
  3. [3]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382; Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “One likely 2024 GOP contender triumphed on election night. It wasn’t Donald Trump,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Jonathan Freedland, “The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump,” Guardian, November 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump; David Lauter, “The midterm’s big loser: Trump suffers multiple defeats,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2022-11-09/the-midterms-big-loser-trump-suffers-multiple-defeats-essential-politics↩
  4. [4]Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “One likely 2024 GOP contender triumphed on election night. It wasn’t Donald Trump,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Jonathan Freedland, “The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump,” Guardian, November 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump; David Lauter, “The midterm’s big loser: Trump suffers multiple defeats,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2022-11-09/the-midterms-big-loser-trump-suffers-multiple-defeats-essential-politics; Adam Taylor, “Is the world ready for President DeSantis and a Floridian foreign policy?” Washington Post, November 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/11/10/desanntis-foreign-policy-florida/↩
  5. [5]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  6. [6]David Benfell, “The derangement of white Christian nationalism,” Not Housebroken, November 9, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/11/04/the-derangement-of-white-christian-nationalism/↩
  7. [7]David Benfell, “A theory of conservative epistemology,” Not Housebroken, August 19, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/06/a-theory-of-conservative-epistemology/↩
  8. [8]Philip Bump, “What we’re talking about when we talk about civil war,” Washington Post, January 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/04/what-were-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-civil-war/; Michael Lind, “America’s Asymmetric Civil War,” Tablet, January 5, 2022, https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/americas-asymmetric-civil-war; Stephen Marche, “The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it,” Guardian, January 4, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/04/next-us-civil-war-already-here-we-refuse-to-see-it; Chris McGreal, “US political violence is surging, but talk of a civil war is exaggerated – isn’t it?” Guardian, August 20, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/20/us-political-violence-civil-war; Dana Milbank, “‘We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe,’ new study says,” Washington Post, December 17, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/17/how-civil-wars-start-barbara-walter-research/; K. K. Ottesen, “‘They are preparing for war’: An expert on civil wars discusses where political extremists are taking this country,” Washington Post, March 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/03/08/they-are-preparing-war-an-expert-civil-wars-discusses-where-political-extremists-are-taking-this-country/; Zoe Strimpel, “America is headed for another civil war where one side has to vanquish the other,” Telegraph, June 25, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/25/america-headed-another-civil-war-where-one-side-has-vanquish/; Barbara F. Walter, “Why should we worry that the U.S. could become an ‘anocracy’ again? Because of the threat of civil war,” Washington Post, January 24, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/24/why-should-we-worry-that-us-could-become-an-anocracy-again-because-threat-civil-war/; Robin Wright, “Is America Headed for a New Kind of Civil War?” New Yorker, August 14, 2017, https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/is-america-headed-for-a-new-kind-of-civil-war↩
  9. [9]Stephan Richter, “Shutdown shows the Civil War never ended,” Salon, October 8, 2013, https://www.salon.com/2013/10/07/shutdown_shows_the_civil_war_never_ended_partner/↩
  10. [10]Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, and Robert Klemko, “Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground,” Washington Post, November 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/13/election-deniers-defeated-state-races/↩
  11. [11]Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, and Robert Klemko, “Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground,” Washington Post, November 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/13/election-deniers-defeated-state-races/↩
  12. [12]Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, and Robert Klemko, “Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground,” Washington Post, November 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/13/election-deniers-defeated-state-races/↩
  13. [13]Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, and Robert Klemko, “Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground,” Washington Post, November 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/13/election-deniers-defeated-state-races/↩
  14. [14]Richard M. Nixon [Justin Sherrin], “The Field Takes Shape,&rdqo; Patreon, November 13, 2022, https://www.patreon.com/posts/field-takes-74601639↩
  15. [15]David Benfell, “My 2024 forecast,” Not Housebroken, November 13, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/10/my-2024-forecast/↩
  16. [16]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382; Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “One likely 2024 GOP contender triumphed on election night. It wasn’t Donald Trump,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Dan Balz, “The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/midterms-dissatisfied-voters-render-judgments-biden-republicans/; Jonathan Freedland, “The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump,” Guardian, November 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump; Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, and Robert Klemko, “Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground,” Washington Post, November 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/13/election-deniers-defeated-state-races/; Liz Goodwin, “A red wave of criticism crashes into Donald Trump after midterm losses,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/11/trump-criticism-midterms-republicans/; David Lauter, “The midterm’s big loser: Trump suffers multiple defeats,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2022-11-09/the-midterms-big-loser-trump-suffers-multiple-defeats-essential-politics; Greg Sargent, “Republicans want Trump to take the blame. Good luck with that,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/11/trump-midterm-elections-gop-abortion-rights-2024/; Marianna Sotomayor et al., “Congressional Republicans panic as they watch their lead dwindle,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/11/senate-republicans-mcconnell-midterms/; Brian Slodysko, “Election takeaways: No sweep for the Republicans after all,” Associated Press, November 9, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-takeaways-9381d3aaff26d19da95506e045fcd6e1; Jonathan Tamari and William Bender, “‘It’s time for him to retire’: Some Pa. Republicans want to push Trump aside after their election losses,” Philadelphia Inquirer, November 10, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-republicans-blame-trump-2022-losses-20221110.html; Adam Taylor, “Is the world ready for President DeSantis and a Floridian foreign policy?” Washington Post, November 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/11/10/desanntis-foreign-policy-florida/; Chris Walker, “Trump Is Blaming Everyone But Himself for Midterm Losses — Including His Wife,” Truthout, November 10, 2022, https://truthout.org/articles/trump-is-blaming-everyone-but-himself-for-midterm-losses-including-his-wife/↩
  17. [17]David Benfell, “The conundrum for white Christian nationalism,” Not Housebroken, November 10, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/11/10/the-conundrum-for-white-christian-nationalism/↩

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