‘O ye of little faith,’ the British are doing supply side economics again

See updates through October 21, 2022, at end of post.



Fig. 1. “President Ronald Reagan Presenting the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Billy Graham in the East Room, 2/23/1983.” Series: Reagan White House Photographs, 1/20/1981 – 1/20/1989, Collection: White House Photographic Collection, 1/20/1981 – 1/20/1989. Unknown Photographer, February 23, 1983, via Wikimedia Commons, Public domain.

Economic systems are social constructions. One might suspect, however, that white Christian nationalists and other illiberals are really just jealous of the fervor that attends their observance.

Atop capitalism and even atop neoliberalism, there is an old notion of supply side economics. Neoliberalism should be dead; it has long been intellectually discredited.[1] Then there is supply side economics, “trickle down,” “a rising tide lifts all boats,” “austerity,” officially embraced both in Margaret Thatcher’s government and under the Ronald Reagan administration, an excuse to make the rich richer, directly at the expense of the poor, by cutting taxes on the rich, encouraging other forms of grift through deregulation, and, oh yeah, cutting the social safety net.

“The whole thing [supply side economics] is premised on faith,” [David] Stockman explained. “On a belief about how the world works.” As he prepared the script in his mind, his natural optimism led to bullish forecasts, which were even more robust than the [Ronald] Reagan Administration’s public promises. “The inflation premium melts away like the morning mist,” Stockman predicted. “It could be cut in half in a very short period of time if the policy is credible. That sets off adjustments and changes in perception that cascade through the economy. You have a bull market in ’81, after April, of historic proportions.”[2]

Reagan’s Office of Management and Budget Director David Stockman was a religious man. Not just religion in a Christian sense, but as well in an economic sense.[3] In my dissertation, I observed that he seemed to be the only true capitalist libertarian in the Reagan administration, in which neoliberalism met neoconservatism, and in which neoliberalism became a moral imperative of neoconservatism.[4] Stockman was a true believer, thrust into the ugly realities of Washington, D.C., politics.[5]

And so it is possible to argue that politics, rather than economics, killed Stockman’s supply side theories.[6] But the simple facts are that 1) these theories depend on the rich wanting to get richer for their credibility, and 2) some form of these theories has been in place, Stockman’s frustrations notwithstanding, since at least the Jimmy Carter administration.[7]

Supply side economics didn’t work then. It hasn’t worked since. It is a Myth with a capital “M” that in fact dates back some 400 years,[8] that persists, really, because the rich and powerful like getting richer, and because the rich and powerful cloak this myth in a conflation of 1) Calvinist ideas of the Christian god rewarding the “select” (bound for Heaven) with riches in this life[9] and 2) Puritan frugality, oh, but not for themselves, only for other people.[10] The British lack a hellfire and brimstone preacher—neither Prime Minister Liz Truss nor Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng quite fit the bill—to preach it but are giving it another go anyway.[11]

“O ye of little faith,”[12] say true believers. The pound has plunged in value against the U.S. dollar. The markets, I guess, lack that faith.[13]


Update, October 14, 2022: To say that Liz Truss’ supply-side project[14] is not going well would be to understate the political calamity she now faces as she throws her chancellor to the wolves[15] in a likely futile attempt to save her own premiership.[16] It seems developments have been rapid:[17]

As I write, Prime Minister Liz Truss is preparing to host a 2pm press conference at which she will announce that corporation tax will rise to 25 per cent this spring, as had been originally planned.

The about-turn means she is abandoning one of the flagship tax cut promises from her Tory leadership campaign and the mini-Budget – and indeed reinstates a policy originally championed by her leadership rival Rishi Sunak. . . .

What. A. Mess. Where are the grown-ups in 10 Downing Street? Why can’t Truss’s team act and behave like an administration with a working majority of around 70 in the Commons?

The next 48 hours are absolutely crucial for Truss. Even her allies are deserting her.

One Tory MP who backed her through all five leadership rounds told me this morning: “I think her leadership authority is now shattered. Party discipline has totally broken down.”[18]

This kind of flailing[19] almost never ends well for the flailers and indeed there is already speculation about who might replace Truss.[20] But because Truss is so new in the job, a rules change will be needed for the Tories to oust her:[21]

If enough MPs submitted no confidence letters in the Prime Minister, then the 1922 executive would have little choice but to act.

Reports have suggested Sir Graham [Brady] is reluctant to change the rules and would only do so in the face of overwhelming demand.

He may even stipulate that as many as 178 MPs – half of the parliamentary party – submitted no confidence letters before acting.[22]

Where there’s a will, there’s a way, and unlike the Democrats in the U.S.,[23] the Tories evidently very much prefer being in power;[24] a poll showing a 33-point lead for Labour[25] focuses their minds.


Update, October 17, 2022 (updated, 3:01 pm): I have corrected the update of October 14 to say ‘supply-side’ rather than ‘austerity.’ It’s really all the same bullshit, but the former is a more radical form of the latter.

It seems it’s the new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, who’s turning the knife in Liz Truss’ back. As the Telegraph’s Chris Evans puts it, “In a statement lasting a little over five minutes, the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, today scrapped almost all of the mini-Budget tax cuts,”[26] that featured in Truss’ “mini-budget.” But of course she’s the one who put that knife there with a radical supply-side economic program[27] in the first place; he’s only turning it.

The Conservatives were on the brink of open warfare on Saturday [October 15] night as ministers warned of “an assault on the Right” and supporters of Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, described Ms [Liz] Truss as a “prisoner” of Mr [Jeremy] Hunt. One senior Tory said: “She’s in office, he’s in power. That’s why she’s got to go.” Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, was being touted as a potential “unity candidate” to replace Ms Truss.[28]

As appalling as Truss’ ideology is—and it is appalling—we should remember that the British conservatives signed up for it. Until they didn’t.[29] As the Telegraph’s Christopher ‘Chopper’ Hope put it,

Today’s [October 17] extraordinary developments leave [Liz] Truss fatally weakened. Even her supporters will be counting her survival on weeks not months. Trussonomics is over. And so, probably, is Truss herself.

There is a good case now for Truss to step aside and let [Jeremy] Hunt take over at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday. Right now it feels inaccurate to describe Truss as Prime Minister. Rather it might be better correct to state simply that she resides at 10 Downing St, and leave it at that.[30]

Hope is now reporting that he’s seen a WhatsApp message indicating that “it’s a done deal” that Rishi Sunak will be prime minister, Hunt will continue as chancellor, and Penny Mordaunt will be foreign minister. He notes, however, that all of this is entirely “undemocratic” and argues for bringing back Boris Johnson.[31]

For this to happen, [Boris Johnson] will have to get clear of a privileges committee inquiry into whether he lied to Parliament over partygate, apologise to his activists and MPs and change the way he governs.

It is a tall ask. But it is that or a general election. The Tories are in an invidious position, and it is all their own fault.[32]

I would think calling that a “tall ask” would be putting it mildly. One thing we’ve seen is that Johnson is Johnson. He won’t change.

As Hope observes, blame for this mess really should be spread more widely,[33] which is what British voters might be telling pollsters they intend to do and thus what might have something to do with those bogus methodology results.[34]

But, of course, this really isn’t just the Tories. As I noted earlier, supply-side economics had its day in the U.S. as well;[35] it’s really just a radical form of “trickle down” economics, intrinsic to neoliberalism, which is what happens when capitalist libertarianism comes to power with a notion that political power, but not economic power, over others is a problem,[36] and which is really about an intense disdain for anyone who isn’t rich and powerful.[37] This ideology has absolutely no intellectual legitimacy whatsoever,[38] and this has been known for long enough that those who continue to promulgate it may be considered guilty of, for me, a cardinal sin: intellectual dishonesty.


Update, October 20, 2022: It should be utterly unsurprising, if you read—if you haven’t, you really should—about the Parliamentary shitshow in my last issue of the Irregular Bullshit early this morning,[39] that Liz Truss has indeed resigned[40] and almost on the schedule that Justin Sherin foresaw.[41]

[Liz] Truss said she cannot deliver on the mandate she won in the Conservative election, and said a new leadership election will be held in a week. Betting markets suggest that Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, may succeed her.[42]

[Liz] Truss’ resignation after just 44 days makes her the shortest-serving prime minister in British history — an extraordinary and unwanted tag she could scarcely have imagined when she was selected as leader by Tory members on September 6.

But in less than two months in office she triggered a meltdown in financial markets, sacked two of her most senior ministers, was forced into multiple policy U-turns and ultimately lost the backing of her own MPs. . . .

Speaking to reporters in Westminster Thursday afternoon, [Graham] Brady said the plan as agreed with Berry was to conclude the leadership election by October 28, meaning a new prime minister will be in placed before Hunt’s next big fiscal statement on October 31.

Brady said the “expectation” was that the Conservative Party grassroots — approximately 180,000 grassroots members — will be included in the truncated selection process, though no details of the process have yet been set out.[43]

Apparently, it is not, after all, “a done deal”[44] that Rishi Sunak will succeed Truss though he is a favorite to do so.[45]


Update, October 21, 2022: I wish I could be so optimistic as Jonathan Freedland:

For one thing, in those short few weeks, [Liz] Truss may well have killed off an ideological project that has animated sections of the right, in Britain and across the democratic world, for the best part of half a century. The vision was of a low tax, low regulation society where the richest are freed to unleash their awesome talents and make themselves even richer.

According to this vision – whether you call it Hayekism, ultra-Thatcherism, Reaganism or economic libertarianism – when the fortunate few at the top soar ever upwards, some of their wealth trickles down to those at the bottom. Versions of it have held sway at different periods in Britain, the United States and beyond.

Now, though, such dreams will be branded as Trussonomics – and that label will be the kiss of death. In six short weeks Truss has discredited high-octane, free-market economics, perhaps for ever.

She tried it, undiluted, as her ideological soulmate and chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered a mini-budget on 23 September that was a magnum of full-strength trickle-down served neat, a plan that read less like a fiscal programme for government than a provocatively extreme pamphlet drawn up by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) (or any of the other outrider organisations headquartered at Truss’s spiritual home, 55 Tufton Street).[46]

The answer capitalist libertarians always give when confronted with the reality that the closer we get to their utopia, the closer we come to disaster, is that we’ve never actually tried their utopia. In essence, that we haven’t tried jumping out of an airplane without pulling the cord on the parachute.

Even as all this unfolded, it was apparent that some of Truss’ capitalist libertarian (more accurately, neoliberal-in-denial) true believers are still true believers whom the Tories must somehow appease.[47]

I do think, however, that Freedland is right that Brexit has been a catastrophe and that the Tories are no longer capable of governing.[48]

  1. [1]David Benfell, “A monster that does not bleed and cannot be killed,” Not Housebroken, June 9, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/06/09/a-monster-that-does-not-bleed-and-cannot-be-killed/
  2. [2]William Greider, “The Education of David Stockman,” Atlantic, December 1981, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1981/12/the-education-of-david-stockman/305760/
  3. [3]William Greider, “The Education of David Stockman,” Atlantic, December 1981, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1981/12/the-education-of-david-stockman/305760/
  4. [4]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).
  5. [5]William Greider, “The Education of David Stockman,” Atlantic, December 1981, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1981/12/the-education-of-david-stockman/305760/
  6. [6]William Greider, “The Education of David Stockman,” Atlantic, December 1981, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1981/12/the-education-of-david-stockman/305760/
  7. [7]Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson, Winner-Take-All Politics (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2010).
  8. [8]Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (Oxford, UK: Oxford University, 2013); Daniel Stedman Jones, Masters of the Universe: Hayek, Friedman, and the Birth of Neoliberal Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University, 2012).
  9. [9]Richard Tarnas, Passion of the Western Mind (New York: Harmony, 1991), 6.
  10. [10]Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (Oxford, UK: Oxford University, 2013); Daniel Stedman Jones, Masters of the Universe: Hayek, Friedman, and the Birth of Neoliberal Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University, 2012).
  11. [11]Greg Ip, “The Return of Inflation Makes Deficits More Dangerous,” Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-return-of-inflation-makes-deficits-more-dangerous-11664366538; Heather Stewart, “Stick, twist … or sack Kwasi Kwarteng? The choices facing Liz Truss,” Guardian, September 28, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/28/stick-twist-or-sack-kwasi-kwarteng-the-choices-facing-liz-truss; Adam Taylor, “Kwasi Kwarteng and the ideology behind the British pound’s collapse,” Washington Post, September 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/09/29/kwasi-kwarteng-ideology-behind-british-pounds-collapse/
  12. [12]Matt. 6:30 (King James Version).
  13. [13]Greg Ip, “The Return of Inflation Makes Deficits More Dangerous,” Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-return-of-inflation-makes-deficits-more-dangerous-11664366538; Adam Taylor, “Kwasi Kwarteng and the ideology behind the British pound’s collapse,” Washington Post, September 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/09/29/kwasi-kwarteng-ideology-behind-british-pounds-collapse/
  14. [14]David Benfell, “‘O ye of little faith,’ the British are doing supply side economics again,” Not Housebroken, September 29, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/09/29/o-ye-of-little-faith-the-british-are-doing-supply-side-economics-again/
  15. [15]Szu Ping Chan, “Kwasi Kwarteng cuts short Washington trip as axe looms over mini-Budget,” Telegraph, October 14, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/kwasi-kwarteng-cuts-short-washington-trip-axe-looms-mini-budget/; Larry Elliott, “Kwasi Kwarteng dashes home early from US amid tax U-turn chaos,” Guardian, October 14, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/14/kwasi-kwarteng-dashes-home-early-from-us-amid-tax-u-turn-chaos; Steve Goldstein, “Kwasi Kwarteng says he has accepted decision to stand aside as chancellor,” MarketWatch, October 14, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kwasi-kwarteng-says-he-has-accepted-decision-to-stand-aside-as-chancellor-2022-10-14
  16. [16]Nick Gutteridge, “1922 Committee rules: How Tory MPs could oust Liz Truss,” Telegraph, October 13, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/tory-mps-plotting-coronation-new-leader-replace-liz-truss/; Nick Gutteridge, “The runners and riders for PM if Liz Truss is ousted as Tory leader,” Telegraph, October 13, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/runners-riders-pm-liz-truss-ousted-tory-leader/
  17. [17]Christopher ‘Chopper’ Hope to Chopper’s Politics list, “Liz Truss’s premiership is in severe peril,” Telegraph, October 14, 2022, https://m5.emails.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/m.jsp?c=%402F4Tz%2BldBsw6FWX7UjCvUO1ob1%2FGHFjZjUjZv9c%2BZHTRSxkJ9DBMPdXk%2B16JGa6iHl2c%2FAflfxfy3pXfhAfPHg%3D%3D&WT.mc_id=e_DM48266&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FrB_New&utmsource=email
  18. [18]Christopher ‘Chopper’ Hope to Chopper’s Politics list, “Liz Truss’s premiership is in severe peril,” Telegraph, October 14, 2022, https://m5.emails.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/m.jsp?c=%402F4Tz%2BldBsw6FWX7UjCvUO1ob1%2FGHFjZjUjZv9c%2BZHTRSxkJ9DBMPdXk%2B16JGa6iHl2c%2FAflfxfy3pXfhAfPHg%3D%3D&WT.mc_id=e_DM48266&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FrB_New&utmsource=email
  19. [19]Aubrey Allegretti and Patrick Butler, “Liz Truss on verge of major U-turn on real-terms benefits cut,” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/09/liz-truss-on-verge-of-major-u-turn-on-real-terms-benefits-cut; Szu Ping Chan, “Kwasi Kwarteng cuts short Washington trip as axe looms over mini-Budget,” Telegraph, October 14, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/kwasi-kwarteng-cuts-short-washington-trip-axe-looms-mini-budget/; Pippa Crerar, Peter Walker, and Phillip Inman, “Liz Truss to hold emergency talks with OBR after failing to calm markets,” Guardian, September 29, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/29/liz-truss-to-hold-emergency-talks-with-obr-after-failing-to-calm-markets; Larry Elliott, “Kwasi Kwarteng dashes home early from US amid tax U-turn chaos,” Guardian, October 14, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/14/kwasi-kwarteng-dashes-home-early-from-us-amid-tax-u-turn-chaos; Steve Goldstein, “Kwasi Kwarteng says he has accepted decision to stand aside as chancellor,” MarketWatch, October 14, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kwasi-kwarteng-says-he-has-accepted-decision-to-stand-aside-as-chancellor-2022-10-14; Greg Ip, “The Return of Inflation Makes Deficits More Dangerous,” Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-return-of-inflation-makes-deficits-more-dangerous-11664366538; Jill Lawless, “UK scraps tax cut for wealthy that sparked market turmoil,” Associated Press, October 3, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/business-financial-markets-liz-truss-0acea0ad013e41524c8be3981654b922; Rowena Mason et al., “Truss’s cabinet in open warfare over key policies and coup accusations,” Guardian, October 4, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/04/kwasi-kwarteng-fiscal-plan-date-thrown-into-confusion; Andrew Rawnsley, “Johnson was slow-poisoning arsenic for the Conservatives. Liz Truss is instant cyanide,” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/09/johnson-was-slow-poisoning-arsenic-for-tories-liz-truss-is-instant-cyanide; Heather Stewart, “Stick, twist … or sack Kwasi Kwarteng? The choices facing Liz Truss,” Guardian, September 28, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/28/stick-twist-or-sack-kwasi-kwarteng-the-choices-facing-liz-truss; Adam Taylor, “Kwasi Kwarteng and the ideology behind the British pound’s collapse,” Washington Post, September 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/09/29/kwasi-kwarteng-ideology-behind-british-pounds-collapse/; Telegraph, “Labour surges to 33-point poll lead over Tories in wake of market turmoil,” September 30, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/30/labour-surges-33-point-poll-lead-tories-wake-market-turmoil/; Esther Webber, Hannah Brenton, and Eleni Courea, “Liz Truss panics as markets keep plunging,” Politico, October 11, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-economy-liz-truss-mistakes-markets-tax-kwarteng/
  20. [20]Nick Gutteridge, “The runners and riders for PM if Liz Truss is ousted as Tory leader,” Telegraph, October 13, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/runners-riders-pm-liz-truss-ousted-tory-leader/
  21. [21]Nick Gutteridge, “1922 Committee rules: How Tory MPs could oust Liz Truss,” Telegraph, October 13, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/tory-mps-plotting-coronation-new-leader-replace-liz-truss/
  22. [22]Nick Gutteridge, “1922 Committee rules: How Tory MPs could oust Liz Truss,” Telegraph, October 13, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/tory-mps-plotting-coronation-new-leader-replace-liz-truss/
  23. [23]David Benfell, “Democrats and contradiction,” Not Housebroken, September 2, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/18/democrats-and-contradiction/
  24. [24]Nick Gutteridge, “1922 Committee rules: How Tory MPs could oust Liz Truss,” Telegraph, October 13, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/tory-mps-plotting-coronation-new-leader-replace-liz-truss/
  25. [25]Telegraph, “Labour surges to 33-point poll lead over Tories in wake of market turmoil,” September 30, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/30/labour-surges-33-point-poll-lead-tories-wake-market-turmoil/
  26. [26]Chris Evans to From The Editor list, “Tax calculator: What Hunt’s U-turns will cost you,” Telegraph, October 17, 2022, https://m5.emails.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/m.jsp?c=%406O9x1UyXHi4xosckHEj5m08NPPvQVT%2FXEYxMjotYsTfu1zOksQNQIACRWhdGmTBfOkOJO4Og3HIIC5wAXu56Qw%3D%3D&WT.mc_id=e_DM49431&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Sub&utmsource=email
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