I cannot yet tell you my 2024 forecast was wrong

benfell


Fig. 1. “Handmaids protest abortion restrictions at a recent rally,” undated photograph by John O’Connor for the Associated Press, via The Well,[1] fair use.

See updates through September 10, 2022, at end of post.

If there is, hopefully, a scenario in which my 2024 forecast, in which I saw nothing stopping Donald Trump’s return to the presidency and the culmination of a longstanding project to establish what, in jargon, is called a competitive authoritarian regime,[2] might be derailed, it may lie in developments of the last few days, in which Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence was searched[3] and allegedly classified materials were retrieved.[4] While support for Trump appears to have solidified among Republicans,[5] the search warrant indicates that he is under investigation for, among other things, violations of the Espionage Act.[6]

Some, including Julia Ioffe,[7] have observed an incongruity between Republican claims to be the “Law and Order” party and their opposition, including threatened and manifest violence,[8] to what appears to be a lawful investigation.[9]

The critical questions with “Law and Order” are always 1) whose law? and 2) whose order? Who writes the laws, who passes them, who administers the hearings at which claims of their violations are adjudicated? Who defines “order,” who imposes that definition upon the rest of us? The answers to these questions lie with sovereignty, in which violence is legitimized,[10] and whose holders, the rulers, are in fact arbitrarily selected by means of physical, political, and economic force.

Having generally embraced Trump’s “stolen election” claims, Republicans unsurprisingly embrace[11] a challenge to the legitimacy of the entire order that requested, authorized, and conducted this search.[12] In this partisan reality, challenges to Republican patriotism—we are, after all, talking about, among other things, the Espionage Act[13]—are similarly moot.[14]

These questions, however, lie not only with Republicans but the larger electorate in the 2022 and 2024 elections. It remains to be seen if indeed that “[d]espite the fantasies of everyone from Sean Hannity to Steve Bannon, . . . someone under indictment isn’t going to get elected president of the United States.”[15] It even remains to be seen even if Trump is even indicted. And in any event, Trump has surprised me before with his ability to attract and retain support.

I am lately remembering acutely how, when Ronald Reagan was elected to the presidency in 1980, I thought 1) that we would be trying out conservatism, 2) conservatism would fail, and 3) that we would thus reject conservatism, getting it out of our systems. I was right only that conservatism would fail; the political situation in this country has otherwise grown steadily worse, embracing and stubbornly clinging to failed ideologies.

I cannot yet tell you that my 2024 forecast was wrong. I hope that changes.

Update, August 14, 2022: In a previous blog post, I expressed doubt that, due to uncertainties as to his state of mind, Donald Trump could be shown beyond a reasonable doubt to have committed seditious conspiracy for his role in the January 6 coup attempt.[16] Renato Mariotti argues that that defense would be unlikely to succeed against charges flowing from the search of Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago.[17]

[The Department of Justice’s] repeated requests and demands to [Donald] Trump and his team served the same purpose [of demonstrating willful conduct]. It will be difficult for Trump to claim that he did not realize that the records he kept were national security secrets that rightfully belonged to the government, given that the government repeatedly told him so and demanded their return. Moreover, Trump was present when the DOJ visited Mar-a-Lago to meet with his lawyers and demand the records.[18]

It also appears that Trump would not be able to evade a conviction by claiming he had declassified all documents at Mar-a-Lago and that “one of Trump’s lawyers signed a written statement falsely asserting that ‘all material marked as classified’ had been returned to the government” could be the basis of a charge of obstruction of justice.[19]

Mariotti thinks the Department of Justice has a strong case to bring against Trump should it choose to do so. That doesn’t mean that it will and Mariotti writes that he “would not be surprised if DOJ refuses to pursue charges, regardless of their strength, in the absence of a ‘plus factor’ like obstruction.” Trump would apparently need to waive attorney-client privilege to blame the lawyer for that misrepresentation and the lawyer in question would thus be accepting personal liability for it. Mariotti seems to think that’s a stretch.[20] That “plus factor” would thus seem to be present.

The question, as it has been from the beginning, remains whether Merrick Garland has the cajones.

Update, August 15, 2022: Reading Marcy Wheeler’s article from yesterday[21] feels to me like coming into a conversation somewhere in the middle. I would need to read back on her blog to try to catch up and I haven’t done this. The article does not stand on its own.

That said, she’s been at this for a while and she has a good reputation. There are a couple points I would glean from her effort:

  1. The Department of Justice is likely to try to settle any charges relating to the Espionage Act against Donald Trump out of court. Prosecution would expose classified material.[22] We are unlikely to ever learn the full contents of what was taken from Mar-a-Lago, but more seriously, it seems to me that the negotiations around a settlement may be protracted. Which would be par for the course with Trump.
  2. Trump appears more concerned with a possible charge of obstruction of justice.[23] This possible charge was also highlighted by Renato Mariotti.[24]

It’s also worth noting again that none of this likely precludes Trump from resuming the presidency if he wins in 2024[25] and it is awfully hard to imagine a Trump Justice Department continuing to press charges against him.

I would also, on general principle, caution against getting ahead of the evidence, which I suspect Wheeler of doing. The prospect of an end to this nightmare within a nightmare is certainly enticing and I yearn for it.[26] But I have learned to expect unexpected twists and turns along the way and we are not at the end of this particular road yet.

Update, August 16, 2022: The impression I had of Merrick Garland as dithering[27] in the face of sometimes violent white Christian nationalist backlash[28] is confirmed in a Wall Street Journal article. Garland dithered for weeks over whether to authorize the search at Mar-a-Lago and is still dithering over whether to bring charges against Donald Trump.[29] In accepting responsibility for the decision to search Trump’s residence, Garland had said, “Upholding the rule of law means applying the law evenly without fear or favor.”[30] But this very much has the look of a man terrified of Trump and his supporters, of a man who can use the impending midterm elections as an excuse to dither further.

Update, August 30, 2022:

“What we’re seeing now is either the beginning or the death knell of an extreme MAGA philosophy,” [Joe] Biden said, referring to [Donald] Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan. “It’s not just Trump, it’s the entire philosophy that underpins the — I’m going to say something — it’s like semi-fascism.”[31]

But what have the Democrats actually done about it? Nothing. Even when it would keep them in the electoral game.[32]

It will take actual action, not mere performance, to make my 2024 forecast[33] wrong,[34] but what we keep seeing is that the Democrats do not actually stand in opposition to white Christian nationalism or to the longstanding Republican project to establish a competitive authoritarian regime. They enable white Christian nationalism and they enable the competitive authoritarian regime.

Such action, rather, comes from the Republicans themselves, overreaching in their support for Donald Trump, overreaching in their opposition to abortion rights.[35] It’s all the Democrats ever ask for: That you vote against the Republicans. And the infuriating part is that it just might be working.[36]

Update, September 10, 2022: With regard to Sarah Palin’s loss in a special election in Alaska, this is the factor I find most salient:

Sure, it’s possible that Alaskans are just sick of Sarah Palin. She abandoned them, leaving her governorship with a year left on her term under a cloud of ethics complaints. She bought a house in Arizona and had middling success at becoming a reality-television star. None of this seemed to work in Palin’s favor; in July, an Alaska Survey Research poll found her to have a positive–negative rating of 31–61 among the state’s registered voters. Maybe Alaska didn’t want its prodigal daughter to return.[37]

But that’s an incomplete explanation for Mary Peltola’s victory because, well, Alaskans had a Republican alternative, Nick Begich, III. They didn’t choose him either. At the very least, in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, voters preferred the Democrat to Palin and there weren’t enough who chose Begich.

Molly Jong-Fast believes the ranked-choice system should have worked in favor of Republicans.[38] I would question that, given Palin’s strong negatives. Everything I heard from Alaska is that Alaskans were really, really unhappy with Palin, pretty much for the reasons Jong-Fast states.

Are Alaskans really holding a grudge this long? I’ve never even been to Alaska but I’m thinking that, yes, they most definitely are. I am absolutely not, certainly not without visiting the state, ready to discount the Republican complaint that ranked-choice worked against them.[39]

Jong-Fast also points to two other factors that might have influenced the vote:

  • First, abortion rights.[40] Jong-Fast writes that

    Since Friday, June 24, when the Supreme Court overturned Roe with the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, there have been five congressional special elections. In every single one of these, the Republican candidate has underperformed against the partisan lean of his or her district.”[41]

  • Second, Jong-Fast suspects that anti-intellectualism, which has propelled the political careers not only of Palin, but of Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Donald Trump, and countless other Republicans, may have backfired.[42] This would be quite a turn. U.S. anti-intellectualism dates back at least a thousand years and to another continent.[43]

We’ll see it all play out again this November, as all three candidates in Alaska will vie for a new term following the one that Peltola will now complete.[44] But I gotta tell you, as the scandal over Trump’s mishandling of classified documents develops[45] and another scandal about his fundraising fraud resurfaces,[46] Trump flags and yard signs seem to be disappearing in southwest Pennsylvania where previously they were ubiquitous. I’ll continue looking, but their sudden absence seems as striking as that of Confederate flags following the January 6 coup attempt.[47]

There’s no small risk in attributing a statewide result to national factors—this applies to Jong-Fast’s consideration of abortion rights and Trump[48]—particularly in a state as remote as Alaska, yet such factors may be compelling here as it’s looking more and more like Democrats may do far better than expected in November,[49] like white Christian nationalism has overstepped, and like Trump is now dead politically.

I am very much wishing I could be on the ground in more places, especially including Alaska right now. I might have more insight to offer.

Update #2, September 10, 2022: I was in Westmoreland County much of this afternoon and evening (Saturday). I saw campaign yard signs in the style of Donald Trump campaign signs, but supporting local candidates, where I would expect to additionally see signs of various sorts supporting Trump. I saw “Let’s Go Brandon” (code for “Fuck Joe Biden[50]) signs. But I only saw two actual signs supporting Trump. I wasn’t counting bumper stickers, but these also seemed much less common.

Westmoreland County is much more conservative than Allegheny County, where Pittsburgh is and where I live. Of all the counties surrounding Allegheny, I think Westmoreland is, visibly at least, the most anti-abortion. When facemasks were required for the COVID-19 pandemic, it seemed to me that a substantial majority of the population defied the requirements. If Trump’s support has evaporated here, he’s in real trouble.

  1. [1]Kate Michael, “Attorneys General Heat Up as Reproductive Rights Cases Take Center Stage,” The Well, February 24, 2022, https://www.thewellnews.com/in-the-states/attorneys-general-heat-up-as-reproductive-rights-cases-take-center-stage/↩
  2. [2]David Benfell, “My 2024 forecast,” Not Housebroken, July 28, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/10/my-2024-forecast/↩
  3. [3]Eric Tucker and Michael Balsamo, “Trump says FBI conducting search of Mar-a-Lago estate,” Associated Press, August 8, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-government-and-politics-9e8d683afe87389407950af7ccfdbdd6↩
  4. [4]Devlin Barrett et al., “FBI searched Trump’s home to look for nuclear documents and other items, sources say,” Washington Post, August 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/11/garland-trump-mar-a-lago/; Devlin Barrett and Josh Dawsey, “Agents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago seized 11 sets of classified documents, court filing shows,” Washington Post, August 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/12/trump-warrant-release/; Alex Leary, Aruna Viswanatha, and Sadie Gurman, “FBI Recovered Eleven Sets of Classified Documents in Trump Search, Inventory Shows,” Washington Post, August 12, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-recovered-eleven-sets-of-classified-documents-in-trump-search-inventory-shows-11660324501↩
  5. [5]Clyde Hughes, “Rep. Greene files articles of impeachment against Attorney General Garland,” United Press International, August 13, 2022, https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/08/13/-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-articles-impeachment-Merrick-Garland-Attorney-General/4231660394406/; Julia Ioffe, “Defund… the F.B.I.?” Puck News, August 9, 2022, https://puck.news/defund-the-f-b-i/; Tina Nguyen, “‘The DeSantasy Is Over,’” Puck News, August 10, 2022, https://puck.news/the-desantasy-is-over/; Steve Peoples, “GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate,” Associated Press, August 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/gop-rallies-around-donald-trump-a0f20a219b1090fd02f529acf744f246↩
  6. [6]Betsy Woodruff Swan, Kyle Cheney, and Nicholas Wu, “FBI search warrant shows Trump under investigation for potential obstruction of justice, Espionage Act violations,” Politico, August 12, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/12/search-warrant-shows-trump-under-investigation-for-potential-obstruction-of-justice-espionage-act-violations-00051507↩
  7. [7]Julia Ioffe, “Defund… the F.B.I.?” Puck News, August 9, 2022, https://puck.news/defund-the-f-b-i/↩
  8. [8]Andrew Solender, “Political threats spiral,” Axios, August 11, 2022, https://www.axios.com/2022/08/12/political-threats-spiral↩
  9. [9]Clyde Hughes, “Rep. Greene files articles of impeachment against Attorney General Garland,” United Press International, August 13, 2022, https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/08/13/-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-articles-impeachment-Merrick-Garland-Attorney-General/4231660394406/; Julia Ioffe, “Defund… the F.B.I.?” Puck News, August 9, 2022, https://puck.news/defund-the-f-b-i/; Tina Nguyen, “‘The DeSantasy Is Over,’” Puck News, August 10, 2022, https://puck.news/the-desantasy-is-over/; Steve Peoples, “GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate,” Associated Press, August 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/gop-rallies-around-donald-trump-a0f20a219b1090fd02f529acf744f246↩
  10. [10]Max Weber, “What is Politics?” in Social Theory: The Multicultural and Classic Readings, ed. Charles Lemert, 4th ed. (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2010), 114-116.↩
  11. [11]Clyde Hughes, “Rep. Greene files articles of impeachment against Attorney General Garland,” United Press International, August 13, 2022, https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/08/13/-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-articles-impeachment-Merrick-Garland-Attorney-General/4231660394406/; Julia Ioffe, “Defund… the F.B.I.?” Puck News, August 9, 2022, https://puck.news/defund-the-f-b-i/; Tina Nguyen, “‘The DeSantasy Is Over,’” Puck News, August 10, 2022, https://puck.news/the-desantasy-is-over/; Steve Peoples, “GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate,” Associated Press, August 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/gop-rallies-around-donald-trump-a0f20a219b1090fd02f529acf744f246↩
  12. [12]David Benfell, “In Alice’s Wonderland, or, rather, its Gilead equivalent, a bluff is not a bluff,” Not Housebroken, August 12, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/12/in-alices-wonderland-or-rather-its-gilead-equivalent-a-bluff-is-not-a-bluff/↩
  13. [13]Betsy Woodruff Swan, Kyle Cheney, and Nicholas Wu, “FBI search warrant shows Trump under investigation for potential obstruction of justice, Espionage Act violations,” Politico, August 12, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/12/search-warrant-shows-trump-under-investigation-for-potential-obstruction-of-justice-espionage-act-violations-00051507↩
  14. [14]David Benfell, “In Alice’s Wonderland, or, rather, its Gilead equivalent, a bluff is not a bluff,” Not Housebroken, August 12, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/12/in-alices-wonderland-or-rather-its-gilead-equivalent-a-bluff-is-not-a-bluff/↩
  15. [15]Sam Nunberg, quoted in Steve Peoples, “GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate,” Associated Press, August 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/gop-rallies-around-donald-trump-a0f20a219b1090fd02f529acf744f246↩
  16. [16]David Benfell, “Reasonable and unreasonable doubt in ‘seditious conspiracy,’” Not Housebroken, June 20, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/14/trump-classified-documents-doj-opinion-00051584↩
  17. [17]Renato Mariotti, “Espionage Isn’t the Strongest Case Against Trump. It’s Simpler Than That,” Politico, August 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/14/trump-classified-documents-doj-opinion-00051584↩
  18. [18]Renato Mariotti, “Espionage Isn’t the Strongest Case Against Trump. It’s Simpler Than That,” Politico, August 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/14/trump-classified-documents-doj-opinion-00051584↩
  19. [19]Renato Mariotti, “Espionage Isn’t the Strongest Case Against Trump. It’s Simpler Than That,” Politico, August 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/14/trump-classified-documents-doj-opinion-00051584↩
  20. [20]Renato Mariotti, “Espionage Isn’t the Strongest Case Against Trump. It’s Simpler Than That,” Politico, August 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/14/trump-classified-documents-doj-opinion-00051584↩
  21. [21]Marcy Wheeler, “Trump's Timid (Non-Legal) Complaints about Attorney-Client Privilege,” Empty Wheel, August 14, 2022, https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/14/trump-claims-the-ssa-receipt-includes-privileged-materials/↩
  22. [22]Marcy Wheeler, “Trump's Timid (Non-Legal) Complaints about Attorney-Client Privilege,” Empty Wheel, August 14, 2022, https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/14/trump-claims-the-ssa-receipt-includes-privileged-materials/↩
  23. [23]Marcy Wheeler, “Trump's Timid (Non-Legal) Complaints about Attorney-Client Privilege,” Empty Wheel, August 14, 2022, https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/14/trump-claims-the-ssa-receipt-includes-privileged-materials/↩
  24. [24]Renato Mariotti, “Espionage Isn’t the Strongest Case Against Trump. It’s Simpler Than That,” Politico, August 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/14/trump-classified-documents-doj-opinion-00051584↩
  25. [25]Scott R. Anderson et al., “What We Do and Don’t Know About the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago Search,” Lawfare, August 9, 2022, https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-we-do-and-dont-know-about-fbis-mar-lago-search↩
  26. [26]David Benfell, “I cannot yet tell you my 2024 forecast was wrong,” Not Housebroken, August 13, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/13/i-cannot-yet-tell-you-my-2024-forecast-was-wrong/↩
  27. [27]David Benfell, “In Alice’s Wonderland, or, rather, its Gilead equivalent, a bluff is not a bluff,” Not Housebroken, August 16, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/12/in-alices-wonderland-or-rather-its-gilead-equivalent-a-bluff-is-not-a-bluff/↩
  28. [28]Farnoush Amiri and Michael Balsamo, “Jan. 6 panel puts Garland in ‘precarious’ spot, ups pressure,” Associated Press, April 1, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-merrick-garland-donald-trump-f70143880cb9be8a0610edcad1ed18e8; Andrew Solender, “Political threats spiral,” Axios, August 11, 2022, https://www.axios.com/2022/08/12/political-threats-spiral↩
  29. [29]Sadie Gurman and Aruna Viswanatha, “Merrick Garland Weighed Search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago for Weeks,” Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/merrick-garland-weighed-search-of-trumps-mar-a-lago-for-weeks-11660601292↩
  30. [30]Devlin Barrett et al., “FBI searched Trump’s home to look for nuclear documents and other items, sources say,” Washington Post, August 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/11/garland-trump-mar-a-lago/↩
  31. [31]Ishaan Tharoor, “The debate over American fascism gets louder,” Washington Post, August 30, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/08/30/fascism-biden-trump-american-history/↩
  32. [32]Mike DeBonis, “Senate Republicans block debate on a third major voting rights bill,” Washington Post, November 3, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-voting-john-lewis/2021/11/03/de00974e-3cc5-11ec-bfad-8283439871ec_story.html; Mike DeBonis, “Senate Republicans block voting rights bill, dealing blow to Democrats’ effort to overhaul election laws,” Washington Post, January 19, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-brace-for-likely-defeat-of-voting-rights-push-due-to-gop-filibuster/2022/01/19/2f9a734c-792d-11ec-bf97-6eac6f77fba2_story.html; Mike DeBonis and Seung Min Kim, “Sinema and Manchin confirm opposition to eliminating filibuster, likely dooming Democrats’ voting rights push,” Washington Post, January 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-set-to-visit-senate-democrats-in-a-final-improbable-pitch-for-voting-rights-action/2022/01/13/fde533b6-7475-11ec-8b0a-bcfab800c430_story.html; Matt Ford, “The Democrats’ Voting Rights Bill Is Dead,” New Republic, July 13, 2021, https://newrepublic.com/article/162974/democrats-voting-rights-bill-dead; Sam Levine, “Voting rights advocates frustrated by ‘same-old, same-old’ meeting with White House,” Guardian, December 3, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/03/voting-rights-advocates-frustrated-meeting-white-house; Greg Sargent, “Joe Manchin finally makes it plain: He is in favor of minority rule,” Washington Post, January 19, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/19/joe-manchin-filibuster-voting-rights-minority-rule/↩
  33. [33]David Benfell, “My 2024 forecast,” Not Housebroken, August 17, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/10/my-2024-forecast/↩
  34. [34]David Benfell, “I cannot yet tell you my 2024 forecast was wrong,” Not Housebroken, August 16, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/13/i-cannot-yet-tell-you-my-2024-forecast-was-wrong/↩
  35. [35]David Benfell, “The really, really, really wild wildcards in the 2022 and 2024 elections,” Not Housebroken, August 17, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/17/the-really-really-really-wild-wildcards-in-the-2022-and-2024-elections/↩
  36. [36]David Benfell, “More questions than answers as Donald Trump flags come down,” Not Housebroken, August 28, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/28/more-questions-than-answers-as-donald-trump-flags-come-down/↩
  37. [37]Molly Jong-Fast, “Sarah Palin Could Be a Harbinger,” Atlantic, September 8, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/6319112fda4cea0020f70f7c/sarah-palin-alaska-congressional-race-trumpism/↩
  38. [38]Molly Jong-Fast, “Sarah Palin Could Be a Harbinger,” Atlantic, September 8, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/6319112fda4cea0020f70f7c/sarah-palin-alaska-congressional-race-trumpism/↩
  39. [39]Molly Jong-Fast, “Sarah Palin Could Be a Harbinger,” Atlantic, September 8, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/6319112fda4cea0020f70f7c/sarah-palin-alaska-congressional-race-trumpism/↩
  40. [40]Molly Jong-Fast, “Sarah Palin Could Be a Harbinger,” Atlantic, September 8, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/6319112fda4cea0020f70f7c/sarah-palin-alaska-congressional-race-trumpism/↩
  41. [41]Molly Jong-Fast, “Sarah Palin Could Be a Harbinger,” Atlantic, September 8, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/6319112fda4cea0020f70f7c/sarah-palin-alaska-congressional-race-trumpism/↩
  42. [42]Molly Jong-Fast, “Sarah Palin Could Be a Harbinger,” Atlantic, September 8, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/6319112fda4cea0020f70f7c/sarah-palin-alaska-congressional-race-trumpism/↩
  43. [43]David Benfell, “Barack Obama asks, ‘Why is it that the folks that won the last election are so mad all the time?’” Not Housebroken, November 4, 2018, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/11/04/barack-obama-asks-why-is-it-that-the-folks-that-won-the-last-election-are-so-mad-all-the-time/↩
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