Ukraine and the refutation of so-called ‘realism’

benfell

See updates through June 11, 2022, at end of post.

The cruel irony at the core of the push to compromise is that it puts the burden of settlement on Ukraine. It is illogical that, after Russia invaded Ukraine, destroyed dozens of its cities and towns, killed and wounded some 40,000 Ukrainian civilians, Ukraine should cede 20 percent of its territory to soothe its tormentor. It is also deeply unjust. When [French president Emmanuel] Macron says that “we must not humiliate Russia,” there is no concern that Ukraine may be humiliated by being forced to reward its attacker.[1]

Perhaps I’m too cynical, but I’m deeply suspicious of the so-called “realist” case that Russia will win anyway so it’s better to cede territory, stop the war, and save lives. Julia Ioffe does a great job of tearing the argument apart on its merits;[2] my quotation by no means does her argument justice. But I think what’s really going on here is that some politicians are desperate to return to the way things were before the invasion where everybody made nice with Vladimir Putin and Putin pretended to play along.[3]

Ioffe notes that ending the war in the way so-called “realists” recommend would mean a mere pause in Putin’s territorial ambitions, that having achieved a measure of victory, he would soon be back for more.[4] It’s not like this is Putin’s first incursion on neighboring territory; he had previously succeeded with Georgia, Crimea, and eastern Ukraine. Having achieved victory in each of those examples, he has come back for more, and nobody can persuasively explain why this time would be different.

I should explain, by the way, that “realism,” also known as realpolitik (as Henry Kissinger made famous), is not particularly realistic. As one of my professors explained it, it is a political science theory positing that countries act in their own interest with little regard for moral or ethical concerns. Given the psychopaths our system of social organization encourages and rewards,[5] this is often an useful explanation for political and economic elite behavior. But, as my professor also explained, it ignores nongovernmental actors, including both charitable and terrorist organizations, and in fact has no way to take such interests into account.

It was in this particular professor’s class, and with her discussion of “realism,” that having seen other profoundly flawed social science theories, I realized that there is a real fucking problem with these theories. They’re often treated ideologically and this is a horrible mistake. As I’ve said before, they should be treated as tools in a toolbox: When a theory is helpful in explaining a phenomenon, by all means, use it. When it isn’t, put it back in the fucking toolbox; leave it for another day.[6]

But don’t be like that solipsistic department chair I had who insisted that a theory should explain all social phenomena. Don’t try to use a theory to predict the future. Such efforts are asinine.

Looking “realism” up in the textbook for that earlier mentioned professor’s class, I see that David Barash and Charles Webel feature “realism” in a distinction between “negative” and “positive” peace, with “negative peace” being merely the absence of violence,[7] indeed what so-called “realists” advocate for Ukraine. This prescription omits entirely the matter of justice,[8] without which, Barash and Webel explain, such peace is rarely permanent, as unresolved grievances fester.[9] Ioffe is on completely solid ground here.

Update, June 10, 2022:
Fig. 1. Historic Russian empire, from the New York Times, possibly March 6, 2014, fair use.[10]

There can no longer be any doubt that Vladimir Putin’s intentions will extend far beyond Ukraine as he “has compared the war in Ukraine to Peter the Great’s conquests in the Baltic, arguing that in both conflicts Russia was recovering its own territory.”[11] This historical analog Putin points to is a war Pyotr Alekséyevich waged against Sweden; this particular conquest includes Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg.[12] Though there are certainly other arguments, such as those Julia Ioffe correctly[13] offers,[14] the map (figure 1) alone[15] refutes those who are so desperate to appease Putin,[16] leaving little doubt that any intention to recover lost territory entails a vast claim.[17]

You may ridicule the Russian military’s underwhelming performance so far in Ukraine, as undermining any prospect of wider ambition, but Putin has nuclear weapons and a lot of them.[18]

Update, June 11, 2022: The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, has harshly criticized France and Germany for continuing to attempt diplomacy with Vladimir Putin. From what I can see Duda is largely right, though perhaps overstating the matter a bit:

“Did anyone speak like this with Adolf Hitler during World War II?” [Andrzej] Duda said.

“Did anyone say that Adolf Hitler must save face? That we should proceed in such a way that it is not humiliating for Adolf Hitler? I have not heard such voices,” he continued.

Duda argued that such conversations achieve nothing and “only bring about a legitimization of a person who is responsible for the crimes the Russian army is committing in Ukraine.”[19]

Duda’s argument[20] appears broadly consistent with Julia Ioffe’s.[21]

French President Emmanuel Macron has insisted that the West must not “humiliate” Russia,[22] and:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized [Emmanuel] Macron’s remarks, reportedly saying earlier this week: “I do not really understand what is humiliating Russia. Are we talking about the fact that for eight years they have been killing Ukrainians?”[23]

I do not see that the French and German efforts can be productive. Putin lives in his own set of delusions and it is clear that this has not changed[24] since before the war.[25] To the extent that diplomacy, even if futile, is not in itself capitulation, I am not seeing that what is reported of the conversations[26] is harmful.

But Ioffe’s portrait of Putin’s childhood[27] leaves little doubt that Macron is wrong, that Putin must indeed be humiliated, as this is the only language the bully will understand.

  1. [1]Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  2. [2]Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  3. [3]Joe Barnes, “Germany ‘deliberately watering down’ EU embargo on Russian oil,” Telegraph, May 27, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/germany-deliberately-watering-eu-plans-embargo-russian-oil-imports/; Arne Delfs, “Merkel Warns of Isolating Russia After Putin’s ‘Big Mistake,’” Bloomberg, June 7, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/merkel-calls-putin-s-invasion-big-mistake-in-public-return↩
  4. [4]Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  5. [5]George Monbiot, “Outer Turmoil,” June 17, 2019, https://www.monbiot.com/2019/06/17/outer-turmoil/↩
  6. [6]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, May 18, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
  7. [7]David P. Barash and Charles P. Webel, Peace and Conflict Studies (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2002).↩
  8. [8]Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  9. [9]David P. Barash and Charles P. Webel, Peace and Conflict Studies (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2002).↩
  10. [10]New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html↩
  11. [11]Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn↩
  12. [12]Reuters, “Hailing Peter the Great, Putin draws parallel with mission to ‘return’ Russian lands,” June 9, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hailing-peter-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-return-russian-lands-2022-06-09/↩
  13. [13]David Benfell, “Ukraine and the refutation of so-called ‘realism,’” Not Housebroken, June 7, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/06/07/ukraine-and-the-refutation-of-so-called-realism/↩
  14. [14]Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  15. [15]New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html↩
  16. [16]Joe Barnes, “Germany ‘deliberately watering down’ EU embargo on Russian oil,” Telegraph, May 27, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/germany-deliberately-watering-eu-plans-embargo-russian-oil-imports/; Arne Delfs, “Merkel Warns of Isolating Russia After Putin’s ‘Big Mistake,’” Bloomberg, June 7, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/merkel-calls-putin-s-invasion-big-mistake-in-public-return; Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  17. [17]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, May 18, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
  18. [18]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, May 18, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩
  19. [19]Times of Israel, “Polish president compares Putin to Hitler, slams France, Germany for talking to him,” June 10, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/polish-president-compares-putin-to-hitler-slams-france-germany-for-talking-to-him/↩
  20. [20]Times of Israel, “Polish president compares Putin to Hitler, slams France, Germany for talking to him,” June 10, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/polish-president-compares-putin-to-hitler-slams-france-germany-for-talking-to-him/↩
  21. [21]Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  22. [22]Julia Ioffe, “The Case Against Appeasement,” Puck News, June 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-case-against-appeasement/↩
  23. [23]Times of Israel, “Polish president compares Putin to Hitler, slams France, Germany for talking to him,” June 10, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/polish-president-compares-putin-to-hitler-slams-france-germany-for-talking-to-him/↩
  24. [24]Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn; Reuters, “Hailing Peter the Great, Putin draws parallel with mission to ‘return’ Russian lands,” June 9, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hailing-peter-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-return-russian-lands-2022-06-09/↩
  25. [25]David Benfell, “Vladimir Putin is a fool,” Not Housebroken, May 18, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/01/24/vladimir-putin-is-a-fool/↩
  26. [26]Times of Israel, “Polish president compares Putin to Hitler, slams France, Germany for talking to him,” June 10, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/polish-president-compares-putin-to-hitler-slams-france-germany-for-talking-to-him/↩
  27. [27]Julia Ioffe, “About a Boy: The Roots of Putin’s Evil,” Puck News, May 10, 2022, https://puck.news/about-a-boy-the-roots-of-putins-evil/↩

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