The madman in Moscow is merely an example

benfell

See update for March 2, 2022, at end of post.

Tom Nichols advocates that the U.S. should do nothing[1] in response to Vladimir Putin putting his nuclear forces on high alert.[2] Nichols is right, and not just for the reasons he states.

Nichols argues that Putin is seeking to focus attention on a nuclear confrontation with the U.S., diverting attention[3] from an, ahem, underwhelming performance by his troops invading Ukraine,[4] by ordinary Russians’ protests against the war,[5] and, I think we can add, his own hubris.[6] Nichols thinks simply that we should not indulge Putin in this way.[7]

But as I read Nichols, I also realize that escalation is simply a mistake. It may sometimes be difficult to discern whether even those loyalists who surround Putin really believe him,[8] but we are clearly dealing with a deranged and delusional man; I fear that Putin would see such an escalation as justifying his own escalation. Remember, this man claims that Ukraine is a threat to Russia: Zero for him is deep in negative territory and a stalemate has become the penultimate defeat; matching his alert status would return the difference to zero and thus, to him, constitute a threat.

Such paranoia is hopeless and this is an insufficient answer to the question of what to do about a nuclear-armed madman who may be seeking a pretext to use those weapons just as he was seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine. Putin is a danger to the world.


I do not know if the author of Proof of Burden read David Frum’s article on the sanctions on the Russian central bank.[9] For me, Frum’s article made Proof of Burden’s point salient and this morning (February 28), we see the ruble crashing with the possibility of collapse and a run on Russian banks.[10]


I am remembering Peter Nicholas’ point, written a year before Donald Trump’s defeat, that Trump saw his own

reelection victory [as] in the nation’s interests, because he and the nation are one and the same.

When that is a president’s mind-set, schemes that might seem unsavory and possibly impeachable become necessary acts of national service. Legitimate investigations into his behavior become plots against the state. An impeachment inquiry isn’t so much a constitutional process for determining whether a president violated the oath of office as a coup—a crime against country.[11]

My reading of Putin is functionally similar, that he sees himself as the personification of and the embodiment of the Russian state. A threat against him is a threat against Russia. And when Proof of Burden calls for Putin’s assassination, I remember the attempt on Hitler.[12] The latter was not to be, however desperately needed. An attempt on Putin would need to succeed all the more. Good luck with that.

And then, even more devilishly, there is a larger question of power: Vladimir Sorokin compares it in Russia to the ring of power in The Lord of the Rings, corrupting and maddening any who hold it, as it has, he writes, for five centuries. Sorokin is optimistic that Putin’s regime will collapse because of his faith in western “democracy,”[13] which he evidently fails to recognize is itself corrupt: In the U.S., it is, by design, a constitutional oligarchy.[14] But money is a means of power everywhere and something similar exists throughout the human world. If we cannot be anarchist,[15] what can we possibly do? How can power itself not absolutely corrupt and madden any who hold it?

Update, March 2, 2022: On the same day that Alexander Graef lays out four scenarios for the end of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,[16] Jim Sleeper, writing for the normally anti-war Tikkun, recalls World War II precedents to argue for the forcible removal of Vladimir Putin from power.[17] I doubt Sleeper reckons for the possibility of Putin resorting to nuclear war,[18] but an unlikely palace coup is one of Graef’s scenarios.[19]

My concern remains that Putin, seeking to restore the Soviet Union, may not stop with Ukraine,[20] but might seek as well to regain Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all former Soviet republics, now members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.[21] NATO members would be obliged to come to the latter countries’ defense and it is somewhat easier, in this case, to see the most terrifying of Graef’s scenarios, nuclear war,[22] come to pass.

Insane, you say? Of course it is. But that’s the problem with taking a page from Ronald Reagan’s playbook:[23] I don’t know where Putin stops[24] any more than any of us at the time could tell where Reagan would stop.[25] Putin can only be presumed to be a danger to the entire world.[26] We’d best hope for that palace coup.

  1. [1]Tom Nichols, “How Should the U.S. Respond to Putin’s Nuclear Provocation?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-the-west-should-respond-to-putins-nuclear-provocation/622943/↩
  2. [2]Yuras Karmanau, “Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, escalating tensions,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550↩
  3. [3]Tom Nichols, “How Should the U.S. Respond to Putin’s Nuclear Provocation?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-the-west-should-respond-to-putins-nuclear-provocation/622943/↩
  4. [4]Larisa Brown, “Ukraine resistance shatters Putin’s plan for victory in 48 hours,” Times, February 28, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article/ukraine-resistance-shatters-putins-plan-for-victory-in-48-hours-0flscp323; Luke Harding, “How Ukrainian defiance has derailed Putin’s plans,” Guardian, February 26, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/how-ukrainian-defiance-has-derailed-putins-plans; Julia Ioffe, “‘The Image of Putin Has Broken,’” Puck News, February 28, 2022, https://puck.news/the-image-of-putin-has-broken/; Roland Oliphant, “The Russians rolled into Kharkiv like victors, but it was another disaster for them,” Telegraph, February 28, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/27/dispatch-russians-rolled-kharkiv-like-victors-another-disaster/; Liz Sly and Dan Lamothe, “The war in Ukraine isn’t working out the way Russia intended,” Washington Post, February 27, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/ukraine-russia-invasion-tactics/↩
  5. [5]Durrie Bouscaren, “‘It was like a nightmare’: Russians react to news of Putin bombing Ukraine,” World, February 25, 2022, https://theworld.org/stories/2022-02-25/it-was-nightmare-russians-react-news-putin-bombing-ukraine; Dasha Litvinova, “Russians hold anti-war rallies amid ominous threats by Putin,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe-arrests-moscow-cf5dda5528937de907f8916820cfab75↩
  6. [6]Julia Ioffe, “‘The Image of Putin Has Broken,’” Puck News, February 28, 2022, https://puck.news/the-image-of-putin-has-broken/↩
  7. [7]Tom Nichols, “How Should the U.S. Respond to Putin’s Nuclear Provocation?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-the-west-should-respond-to-putins-nuclear-provocation/622943/↩
  8. [8]David Ignatius, “Surprising cracks, if small ones, appear in Kremlin support for Putin on Ukraine,” Washington Post, February 21, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/21/putin-ukraine-invasion-kremlin-support/; Julia Ioffe, “Will Putin Get His World War III?” Puck News, February 22, 2022, https://puck.news/will-putin-get-his-world-war-iii/; Dan Sabbagh and Rowena Mason, “UK says ‘serious doubts’ exist within Russian military about invading Ukraine,” Guardian, February 21, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/uk-says-serious-doubts-exist-within-russian-military-about-invading-ukraine; Ann M. Simmons and Matthew Luxmoore, “Putin Finds Himself Isolated, Out of Touch as Invasion of Ukraine Sputters,” Not Housebroken, February 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-his-invasion-of-ukraine-sputters-putin-finds-himself-isolated-and-out-of-touch-11646000993↩
  9. [9]David Frum, “Can Putin Recover From This?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/↩
  10. [10]Associated Press, “Russia-Ukraine War: What to know as Ukraine resists advance,” February 28, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-what-to-know-1c7a5fc5e9cf84134592c855c363e791; Martin Farrer, Andrew Roth, and Julian Borger, “Ukraine war: sanctions-hit Russian rouble crashes as Zelenskiy speaks of ‘crucial’ 24 hours,” Guardian, February 28, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/ukraine-war-sanctions-hit-russian-rouble-crashes-as-zelenskiy-speaks-of-crucial-24-hours; Dasha Litvinova, “Russians hold anti-war rallies amid ominous threats by Putin,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe-arrests-moscow-cf5dda5528937de907f8916820cfab75; Caitlin Ostroff, “Russia’s Ruble, Financial Markets Are Hammered by Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-ruble-financial-markets-are-hammered-by-sanctions-11646038133↩
  11. [11]Peter Nicholas, “Trump’s Dark Assumption About America,” Atlantic, October 30, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/10/trump-impeachment-2020/601048/↩
  12. [12]United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, “Attempt to Assassinate Hitler,” n.d., https://www.ushmm.org/learn/timeline-of-events/1942-1945/attempt-to-assassinate-hitler↩
  13. [13]Vladimir Sorokin, “Vladimir Putin sits atop a crumbling pyramid of power,” Guardian, February 27, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-power↩
  14. [14]David Benfell, “A constitutional oligarchy: Deconstructing Federalist No. 10,” Not Housebroken, July 3, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/04/22/a-constitutional-oligarchy-deconstructing-federalist-no-10/↩
  15. [15]David Benfell, “I am no longer an anarchist,” Not Housebroken, January 29, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/01/29/i-am-no-longer-an-anarchist/↩
  16. [16]Alexander Graef, “Four ways the Russia-Ukraine war could end – from palace coup to Pyrrhic victory,” Telegraph, March 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/four-ways-russia-ukraine-war-could-end-palace-coup-pyrrhic/↩
  17. [17]Jim Sleeper, “Too much reality: Putin’s Ukraine invasion summons Europe’s dark past,” Tikkun, March 2, 2022, https://www.tikkun.org/too-much-reality-putins-ukraine-invasion-summons-europes-dark-past/↩
  18. [18]Alexander Graef, “Four ways the Russia-Ukraine war could end – from palace coup to Pyrrhic victory,” Telegraph, March 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/four-ways-russia-ukraine-war-could-end-palace-coup-pyrrhic/; Yuras Karmanau, “Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, escalating tensions,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550; Tom Nichols, “How Should the U.S. Respond to Putin’s Nuclear Provocation?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-the-west-should-respond-to-putins-nuclear-provocation/622943/; Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean↩
  19. [19]Alexander Graef, “Four ways the Russia-Ukraine war could end – from palace coup to Pyrrhic victory,” Telegraph, March 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/four-ways-russia-ukraine-war-could-end-palace-coup-pyrrhic/↩
  20. [20]Julia Ioffe, “Will Putin Get His World War III?” Puck News, February 22, 2022, https://puck.news/will-putin-get-his-world-war-iii/; Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss, “Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 12, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/12/ukraine-putin-s-unfinished-business-pub-85771↩
  21. [21]Thomas E. Ricks, “7 Former Communist Countries Join NATO,” Washington Post, March 30, 2004, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/03/30/7-former-communist-countries-join-nato/476d93dc-e4bd-4f05-9a15-5b66d322d0e6/↩
  22. [22]Alexander Graef, “Four ways the Russia-Ukraine war could end – from palace coup to Pyrrhic victory,” Telegraph, March 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/four-ways-russia-ukraine-war-could-end-palace-coup-pyrrhic/↩
  23. [23]Lou Cannon, President Reagan: The Role of a Lifetime (New York: Public Affairs, 2000).↩
  24. [24]David Benfell, “Vladimir Putin is a fool,” Not Housebroken, February 28, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/01/24/vladimir-putin-is-a-fool/↩
  25. [25]Lou Cannon, President Reagan: The Role of a Lifetime (New York: Public Affairs, 2000).↩
  26. [26]David Benfell, “The madman in Moscow is merely an example,” Not Housebroken, February 28, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/02/28/the-madman-in-moscow-is-merely-an-example/↩

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