A hot U.S. civil war turned cold, now lukewarm, may turn hot again

benfell

See updates through January 5, 2022, at end of post.

If, indeed, we doubt that the U.S. Civil War of the 19th century resolved much or even really has ended,[1] we might say rather that this once hot war has turned cold, or more recently, with increasing polarization, lukewarm. Dana Milbank does not draw this connection, but in a recent column, warns that a new civil war may occur.[2] I think he understates the danger.

I have said the Donald Trump unified three tendencies of conservatism, namely authoritarian populism, paleoconservatism, and social conservatism,[3] that I had identified in my dissertation.[4] This is a profoundly dangerous development—and one I have been slow in coming to fully understand—that unifies some of the likely most populous tendencies of conservatism with a militant fringe that poses a continuing risk[5] indeed even of (a renewed) civil war in the U.S.[6]

Of these, it wasn’t so hard to understand the union between authoritarian populism and paleoconservatism. In my dissertation, I had, after all, failed to find a difference of view between these two tendencies on the topic of unauthorized migration and they are easily understood as sharing racism in common, whether denied or overt.[7] In the Trump era, it became harder to find utility in the latter distinction and I discarded it.[8] There were other differences, notably an authoritarian populist reflexive support for the military and therefore for war versus an alleged paleoconservative pacifism,[9] but I was unable to sustain them in what I was seeing, particularly with the more violent fringe of paleoconservatism[10] that, in my dissertation, I had avoided as extreme.[11]

I began to understand the union with social conservatism when I re-read[12] a passage on the people of the Greater Appalachians sociocultural region in Colin Woodard’s American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America,[13] whom I count as authoritarian populist[14] and whom he described as having

learned to rely only on themselves and their extended families to defend home, hearth, and kin against intruders, be they foreign soldiers, Irish guerrilla fighters, or royal tax collectors. They saw themselves as “God’s chosen people, members of a biblical nation sanctified in blood and watched over by a wrathful Old Testament deity. Suspicious of outside authority of any kind, the Borderlanders valued individual liberty and personal honor above all else, and were happy to take up arms to defend either.”[15]

This, in short, was a difference between social conservatism and authoritarian populism that had not been so pronounced to begin with. In my dissertation, I had explained that the distinctions between tendencies were soft rather than hard and that individuals might indeed embrace views from more than one tendency—this is why I had settled on the term tendency. I found that social conservatives shared a split with traditionalist conservatives over whether to emphasize a compassionate or a legalistic approach to unauthorized migration. The difference with authoritarian populists, however, was that the latter strikingly embraced a hierarchically invidious monistic—”us” “good” versus “them” “evil”—approach.[16] In my page where I update my thinking on these tendencies (there are seven in all), I had written,

Another aspect is an apparent but non-uniform blending of social conservatism with authoritarian populism, as seen at the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s annual Road to Majority conference in 2021 or with politicians like Pennsylvania state senator Doug Mastriano, where the views expressed by social conservatives seem indistinguishable from those of authoritarian populists,[17] which makes it easy to overlook the considerable controversy among social conservatives about Trump.[18][19]

It turns out in all this, I had missed an article by Peter Wehner in the Atlantic, in which he notes not only the difference within evangelical Protestantism over Trump, but how an ideological predisposition, fostered in part by cable television (think Fox News), to Trumpism has come to 1) be identified as “Christian,” and 2) subvert and displace allegedly Biblical teaching. Wehner thus explains not only, as he intends, a split within evangelical Protestantism, but as well, a unity of social conservatism with authoritarian populism and hence paleoconservatism.[20]

As I said, the distinctions between these tendencies were soft to begin with.[21] Further, and as I recently re-emphasized,[22] there is absolutely no permanence to them or indeed to my scheme of seven conservative tendencies to begin with.[23] The same must be said for social conservatism as a tendency or for Trumpism as a union of authoritarian populism, paleoconservatism, and social conservatism.[24] I cannot forecast how this will develop in the future.

But for the moment, the danger is profound.[25] The United States is a country which I think can neither peacefully remain united nor peacefully break up.[26] That likely means violence.

Update, January 2, 2022: I’ve become increasingly wary of political discussions with passengers in the Pittsburgh area. Too many are absolute Trumpist wackos, too many are in COVID-19 denial, too many are anti-vaxxers, too many say of the 2020 general election, “A lot of shady stuff happened there.”

But I had a passenger yesterday who, after some back and forth, I found was in agreement that we are very likely headed for violence in this country.[27] Indeed, if one trusts a number of recent polls, it appears a lot of people think that such violence may be justified and that a lot of, though fewer, people think that the January 6 coup attempt was justified,[28] which seems to suggest strongly that if those people ever fail to get their way in an election again, they may very well indeed attempt a repeat of that coup attempt.

Indeed, the only way I see of avoiding that outcome is if, indeed, the Republicans succeed in their sustained and wide-ranging effort to ensure minoritarian rule,[29] an effort that Democrats have seemingly and consciously acquiesced to,[30] thus rendering such an attempt unnecessary.

My passenger, however, takes his thinking a step beyond mine and boldly thinks that there will be some tragedy that brings Amerikkkans together. When I pointed to the COVID-19 death toll, surely such a tragedy at over 800,000,[31] it became clear he felt simply that the tipping point had not yet been reached.

He might be right. There certainly is a systems logic there, though I think it more likely his thinking, although clearly educated, draws on faith. The obvious question is if not any of the milestones in the death toll we have already breached, what number will be high enough? He can’t say and it’s really unfair to ask.

But whatever Trumpists say about abortion, it’s hard to argue that their willingness to resort to violence, which is indisputably in evidence,[32] signals any reverence for human life whatsoever. Which raises the next question: What possible tragedy could, as my passenger suggested, bring “us” together?

Update, January 3, 2022, revised, January 4, 2022: I am far from alone[33] in the alarm I have expressed about the possible revival of the 19th century U.S. Civil War.[34] Thomas Homer-Dixon, who cites numerous other scholars, warns that:

By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship.[35]

Stephen Marche acknowledges that “[t]here will be those who say that warnings of a new civil war is alarmist,” even as he recalls the certainty of the U.S. political elite in the 19th century that there would be no civil war, that is, of course, until it was already well under way,[36] but Jacob Bacharach begins to probe the alternative reality that Trumpists live in, with a belief system that is in fact reinforced by the very disdain that I and so many others hold for them.[37] If I wondered how we make peace when each side views the other as irredeemably evil,[38] we all might wonder how to make a peace when each side, not merely ‘liberals’ and scholars,[39] but Trumpists as well with slogans such as “Make a Liberal Cry” and “Fuck Your Feelings,” holds the other in utter contempt and disdain.

Update, January 5, 2022: Philip Bump covers a number of important points, and you should, absolutely, read his analysis. One of the more important is that when I, and many others, speak of a potentially revived civil war, it need not necessarily take the classic form of, as Bump puts it, “the Confederated States of MAGA assembling troops near Tallahassee,” or even conform to specialized scholarly definitions involving “benchmarks such as total battle deaths and extended durations of conflict.”[40]

“The next war is going to be more decentralized, fought by small groups and individuals using terrorism and guerrilla warfare to destabilize the country,” [Barbara F.] Walter told [Zack] Beauchamp. “We are closer to that type of civil war than most people realize.” (Beauchamp might have been better served had he put “civil war” in quotes in that sentence.)[41]

It could, as Bump also explains, involve something short of violence,[42] although Trumpists are often armed and, as Bump notes, have already demonstrated a willingness to employ violence.[43]

Because Trumpists have previously been violent in pursuit of their political ends,[44] and as I have previously suggested, I think if the Republicans ever lose to Democrats again, certainly at the national level, I expect them to be violent again.[45] I think those who think Trumpists might stop short of such violence are committing the same error Stephen Marche pointed to among elites just prior to the Civil War, that is, minimizing and even dismissing outright the threat.[46] The question, really, is just how violent.

  1. [1]David Benfell, “Pure poison,” Not Housebroken, September 15, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/12/17/pure-poison/; David W. Blight, “The Civil War Isn’t Over,” Atlantic, April 8, 2015, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/04/the-civil-war-isnt-over/389847/; Stephan Richter, “Shutdown shows the Civil War never ended,” Salon, October 8, 2013, https://www.salon.com/2013/10/07/shutdown_shows_the_civil_war_never_ended_partner/↩
  2. [2]Dana Milbank, “‘We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe,’ new study says,” Washington Post, December 17, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/17/how-civil-wars-start-barbara-walter-research/↩
  3. [3]David Benfell, “Trumpism, Donald Trump, the January 6 coup attempt, and a smoking gun that may never be found,” Not Housebroken, December 16, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/14/trumpism-donald-trump-the-january-6-coup-attempt-and-a-smoking-gun-that-may-never-be-found/↩
  4. [4]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  5. [5]David Benfell, “The danger that remains,” Not Housebroken, May 23, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/01/07/the-danger-that-remains/; David Benfell, “When politics are more important than the country,” Not Housebroken, November 10, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/10/when-politics-are-more-important-than-the-country/; David Benfell, “The danger that still remains,” Not Housebroken, December 11, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/24/the-danger-that-still-remains/; David Benfell, “Trumpism, Donald Trump, the January 6 coup attempt, and a smoking gun that may never be found,” Not Housebroken, December 16, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/14/trumpism-donald-trump-the-january-6-coup-attempt-and-a-smoking-gun-that-may-never-be-found/↩
  6. [6]Dana Milbank, “‘We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe,’ new study says,” Washington Post, December 17, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/17/how-civil-wars-start-barbara-walter-research/↩
  7. [7]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  8. [8]David Benfell, “The seven tendencies of conservatism,” Irregular Bullshit, n.d., https://disunitedstates.com/the-seven-tendencies-of-conservatism/↩
  9. [9]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  10. [10]David Benfell, “The danger that remains,” Not Housebroken, May 23, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/01/07/the-danger-that-remains/; David Benfell, “When politics are more important than the country,” Not Housebroken, November 10, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/10/when-politics-are-more-important-than-the-country/; David Benfell, “The danger that still remains,” Not Housebroken, December 11, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/24/the-danger-that-still-remains/; David Benfell, “Trumpism, Donald Trump, the January 6 coup attempt, and a smoking gun that may never be found,” Not Housebroken, December 16, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/14/trumpism-donald-trump-the-january-6-coup-attempt-and-a-smoking-gun-that-may-never-be-found/↩
  11. [11]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  12. [12]David Benfell, “Barack Obama asks, ‘Why is it that the folks that won the last election are so mad all the time?’ Not Housebroken, November 4, 2018, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/11/04/barack-obama-asks-why-is-it-that-the-folks-that-won-the-last-election-are-so-mad-all-the-time/↩
  13. [13]Colin Woodard, American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America (New York: Penguin, 2011).↩
  14. [14]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126); David Benfell, “Barack Obama asks, ‘Why is it that the folks that won the last election are so mad all the time?’ Not Housebroken, November 4, 2018, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/11/04/barack-obama-asks-why-is-it-that-the-folks-that-won-the-last-election-are-so-mad-all-the-time/↩
  15. [15]Colin Woodard, American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America (New York: Penguin, 2011), 102.↩
  16. [16]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  17. [17]Eliza Griswold, “A Pennsylvania Lawmaker and the Resurgence of Christian Nationalism,” New Yorker, May 9, 2021, https://www.newyorker.com/news/on-religion/a-pennsylvania-lawmaker-and-the-resurgence-of-christian-nationalism; David Smith, “The martyr who may rise again: Christian right’s faith in Trump not shaken,” Guardian, June 20, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/19/trump-christian-right-conference-faith-and-freedom↩
  18. [18]Elizabeth Bruenig, “In God’s country,” Washington Post, August 14, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/14/evangelicals-view-trump-their-protector-will-they-stand-by-him/; Rod Dreher, “Eric Metaxas’s American Apocalypse,” American Conservative, December 10, 2020, https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/eric-metaxas-trump-bloodshed-american-apocalypse-live-not-by-lies/; Michelle Goldberg, “The Christian Right Is in Decline, and It’s Taking America With It,” New York Times, July 9, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/09/opinion/religious-right-america.html; Eliza Griswold, “A Pennsylvania Lawmaker and the Resurgence of Christian Nationalism,” New Yorker, May 9, 2021, https://www.newyorker.com/news/on-religion/a-pennsylvania-lawmaker-and-the-resurgence-of-christian-nationalism; Sarah Jones, “White Evangelicals Made a Deal With the Devil. Now What?” New York, December 6, 2020, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/white-evangelicals-made-a-deal-with-trump-now-what.html; David Smith, “The martyr who may rise again: Christian right’s faith in Trump not shaken,” Guardian, June 20, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/19/trump-christian-right-conference-faith-and-freedom; Peter Wehner, “Evangelicals Made a Bad Bargain With Trump,” Atlantic, October 18, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/the-evangelical-movements-bad-bargain/616760/; Peter Wehner, “The Evangelical Church is Breaking Apart,“ Atlantic, October 24, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/evangelical-trump-christians-politics/620469/; Julie Zauzmer and Sarah Pulliam Bailey, “After Trump and Moore, some evangelicals are finding their own label too toxic to use,” Washington Post, December 14, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/after-trump-and-moore-some-evangelicals-are-finding-their-own-label-too-toxic-to-use/2017/12/14/b034034c-e020-11e7-89e8-edec16379010_story.html↩
  19. [19]David Benfell, “The seven tendencies of conservatism,” Irregular Bullshit, n.d., https://disunitedstates.com/the-seven-tendencies-of-conservatism/↩
  20. [20]Peter Wehner, “The Evangelical Church is Breaking Apart,“ Atlantic, October 24, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/evangelical-trump-christians-politics/620469/↩
  21. [21]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  22. [22]David Benfell, “How much does Donald Trump’s profanity against Binyamin Netanyahu matter?” Not Housebroken, December 16, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/16/how-much-does-donald-trumps-profanity-against-binyamin-netanyahu-matter/↩
  23. [23]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩
  24. [24]David Benfell, “How much does Donald Trump’s profanity against Binyamin Netanyahu matter?” Not Housebroken, December 16, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/16/how-much-does-donald-trumps-profanity-against-binyamin-netanyahu-matter/↩
  25. [25]David Benfell, “The danger that remains,” Not Housebroken, May 23, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/01/07/the-danger-that-remains/; David Benfell, “The danger that still remains,” Not Housebroken, December 11, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/24/the-danger-that-still-remains/; David Benfell, “Trumpism, Donald Trump, the January 6 coup attempt, and a smoking gun that may never be found,” Not Housebroken, December 16, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/14/trumpism-donald-trump-the-january-6-coup-attempt-and-a-smoking-gun-that-may-never-be-found/↩
  26. [26]David Benfell, “Pure poison,” Not Housebroken, September 15, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/12/17/pure-poison/; David Benfell, “When politics are more important than the country,” Not Housebroken, November 10, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/10/when-politics-are-more-important-than-the-country/↩
  27. [27]David Benfell, “A hot U.S. civil war turned cold, now lukewarm, may turn hot again,” Not Housebroken, December 19, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/19/a-hot-u-s-civil-war-turned-cold-now-lukewarm-may-turn-hot-again/↩
  28. [28]Rachel Bade and Zack Stanton, “4 startling polls you should read about Jan. 6,” Politico, January 2, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/01/02/4-startling-polls-you-should-read-about-jan-6-495559↩
  29. [29]Avery Anapol, “Judge orders Trump admin to explain how it decided to add citizenship question to census,” Hill, July 3, 2018, http://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/395400-federal-judge-says-trump-admin-acted-in-bad-faith-with-citizenship; Tara Bahrampour and Robert Barnes, “Despite Trump administration denials, new evidence suggests census citizenship question was crafted to benefit white Republicans,” Washington Post, May 30, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/despite-trump-administration-denials-new-evidence-suggests-census-citizenship-question-was-crafted-to-benefit-white-republicans/2019/05/30/ca188dea-82eb-11e9-933d-7501070ee669_story.html; Tara Bahrampour and John Wagner, “Government lawyers step up effort to get a citizenship question on 2020 Census, court filing shows, ” Washington Post, July 5, 2019, source; Tara Bahrampour, Matt Zapotosky, and Josh Dawsey, “Reversing course, Trump administration will look for a way to add citizenship question to 2020 Census,” Washington Post, July 3, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-appears-to-contradict-his-own-administration-on-census-citizenship-question/2019/07/03/b720bb94-9da4-11e9-b27f-ed2942f73d70_story.html; Tara Bahrampour et al., “Trump administration scrambles to save citizenship question on census,” Washington Post, July 4, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-administration-scrambles-to-save-citizenship-question-on-census/2019/07/04/238fe3fa-9e85-11e9-9ed4-c9089972ad5a_story.html; Robert Barnes, “On Census citizenship question, Supreme Court’s conservatives appear to be united,” Boston Globe, April 23, 2019, https://www2.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2019/04/23/census-citizenship-question-supreme-court-conservatives-appear-united/tB1KUI3oACQAIAjQxVyXRL/story.html; Noah Bierman and David G. Savage, “Trump administration abruptly gives up fight over citizenship question on the census,” Los Angeles Times, July 2, 2019, https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-census-trump-citizenship-20190702-story.html; Noah Bierman and David G. Savage, “Citizen question may be back on 2020 census as Trump administration reverses course again,” Los Angeles Times, July 3, 2019, https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-census-immigration-tweet-supreme-court-20190703-story.html; Sarah Binder, “Mitch McConnell is wrong. Here’s the filibuster’s ‘racial history,’” Washington Post, March 24, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/24/mitch-mcconnell-is-wrong-heres-filibusters-racial-history/; Aaron Blake, “Trump just admitted something he probably shouldn’t have about the census citizenship question,” Washington Post, July 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/05/trump-just-admitted-something-he-probably-shouldnt-have-about-census-citizenship-question/; Aaron Blake, “The Justice Department just pulled its lawyers from the census case. That could signal something ugly ahead,” Washington Post, July 8, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/08/justice-department-just-pulled-its-lawyers-census-case-that-could-signal-something-ugly-ahead/; Hayes Brown, “Stacey Abrams’ run for Georgia governor will test GOP voter suppression,” MSNBC, December 2, 2021, https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/stacey-abrams-run-georgia-governor-will-test-gop-voter-suppression-n1285261; Philip Bump, “Despite GOP rhetoric, there have been fewer than two dozen charged cases of voter fraud since the election,” Washington Post, May 4, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/04/despite-gop-rhetoric-there-have-been-fewer-than-two-dozen-charged-cases-voter-fraud-since-election/; Marjorie Cohn, “Supreme Court Drives a Stake Through the Heart of the Voting Rights Act,” Truthout, July 2, 2021, https://truthout.org/articles/supreme-court-drives-a-stake-through-the-heart-of-the-voting-rights-act/; Mike DeBonis, “Stepping up Trump clash, House votes to enforce Barr and McGahn subpoenas,” Washington Post, June 11, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/stepping-up-trump-clash-house-to-vote-to-enforce-barr-and-mcgahn-subpoenas/2019/06/11/a1343cea-8c4f-11e9-b6f4-033356502dce_story.html; Mike DeBonis, “Senate Republicans block debate on a third major voting rights bill,” Washington Post, November 3, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-voting-john-lewis/2021/11/03/de00974e-3cc5-11ec-bfad-8283439871ec_story.html; Lindsay Ellis, “After Scathing Criticism, U. of Florida Will Let Professors Testify Against the State,” Chronicle of Higher Education, November 5, 2021, https://www.chronicle.com/article/after-scathing-criticism-u-of-florida-will-let-professors-testify-against-the-state; Garrett Epps, “Is the Citizenship Question Dead?” Atlantic, June 27, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/court-wants-real-reason-citizenship-question/592864/; Garrett Epps, “The Census Case Could Provoke a Constitutional Crisis,” Atlantic, July 8, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/census-case-could-provoke-constitutional-crisis/593425/; Elizabeth Findell, “Texas Senate Passes Voting Bill, as Democratic Rivals Push Federal Bill,” Wall Street Journal, July 13, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-senate-expected-to-take-up-vote-on-election-legislation-11626176054; Colleen Flaherty, “Just the End of the Beginning,” Inside Higher Ed, November 8, 2021, https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/11/08/uf-says-professors-can-be-paid-experts-theyre-suing-anyway; David Gans, “Selective originalism and selective textualism: How the Roberts court decimated the Voting Rights Act,” SCOTUSblog, July 7, 2021, https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/07/selective-originalism-and-selective-textualism-how-the-roberts-court-decimated-the-voting-rights-act/; Amy Gardner and Amy B. 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