Consider a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan

Afghanistan is almost certainly falling to the Taliban and I think the U.S., British, and other governments know it:

Senior US officers and White House officials insisted before the withdrawal began in May that the Afghan police and army were up to the job of defending themselves.

They were clearly wrong. . . .

While special forces units continue to fight, regular troops in many places appear to have withdrawn voluntarily or accepted offers to surrender, allowing Taliban fighters to roll into towns unopposed.^[1]

As this proceeds, the Taliban win both U.S. military equipment supplied to the Afghan army^[2] and fighters who had been imprisoned by the Afghan regime.^[3] In the language of systems theory, we see a feedback loop where Taliban victories increase their strength, only partially at direct cost to Afghan military strength, leading to yet more Taliban victories. The question now, really, is whether a tipping point beyond which Afghan military losses become irreversible has already been passed. I do not possess the data and quality of analysis to say so definitively, but my overwhelming sense, both from the rapidity of the Taliban advance and from what western governments are saying,^[4] is that it has:

On Thursday night the United States said it would send three battalions to Kabul to assist in evacuation. The British government is sending 600 paratroopers to do the same.

The choice of troops is telling.

The Paras are a tip-of-the-spear unit who you deploy in an emergency and when there might be serious fighting to do.

But the limits of their mission are clear: to assist in evacuating UK citizens and Afghans granted permission to seek refuge in Britain, and move the embassy to a secure location.

They are not to assist their former Afghan allies in combat.^[5]

I don’t see how you read this as anything but an implicit acknowledgment that that tipping point has been passed by the U.S. and British governments, rather than as any kind of a signal of confidence in the Afghan regime. The U.S. and British governments just aren’t admitting what, to me, they clearly know.

The German government is a little less circumspect, warning that “we will not give another cent if the Taliban take over the country and introduce Sharia law.”^[6] Yes, we can interpret that statement as an attempt to alter the course of events, but for such an attempt to succeed, the Taliban would need to consider German funding important. Against the prize of an entire country, I’m not holding my breath that they will. Nor do I imagine that the Germans think that they will.

Similarly, an earlier U.S. threat to isolate Afghanistan diplomatically^[7] depends, first, on the cooperation of other countries, perhaps most importantly and dubiously, Pakistan; and, second, on the importance the Taliban attach to international relations. Here again, I’m not holding my breath.

The Taliban, whom we may now presume will rule Afghanistan in short order, present a horrific face of Islam. What the rest of us need to remember is that this is far from the only face of Islam. I worry for the people of Afghanistan. I worry for Muslims worldwide who are too often compelled to answer for Taliban, Islamic State, and other extremists.

Finally, yes certainly, there will be blame for the calamity that now befalls Afghanistan.^[8] But those who would persist in endless colonial war need to explain how it does anything other than exacerbate the very extremism that Afghans now face.

1. ^[1]Roland Oliphant, “Will the Taliban take over Afghanistan? Here’s what we know so far,” Telegraph, August 13, 2021, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/08/13/will-taliban-take-afghanistan-know-far/↩
2. ^[2]Ehsanullah Amiri and Gordon Lubold, “After U.S.’s Bagram Exit, Afghans Face the Taliban Alone,” Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-u-s-s-bagram-exit-afghans-face-the-taliban-alone-11625517960; Dan Lamothe et al., “U.S. officials warn collapse of Afghan capital could come sooner than expected,” Washington Post, August 10, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/08/10/afghanistan-intelligence-assessment/; Gordon Lubold and Yaroslav Trofimov, “Afghan Government Could Collapse Six Months After U.S. Withdrawal, New Intelligence Assessment Says,” Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghan-government-could-collapse-six-months-after-u-s-withdrawal-new-intelligence-assessment-says-11624466743?mod=article_inline; Roland Oliphant, “Will the Taliban take over Afghanistan? Here’s what we know so far,” Telegraph, August 13, 2021, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/08/13/will-taliban-take-afghanistan-know-far/; Ishaan Tharoor, “Afghanistan’s rapid collapse is part of a long, slow U.S. defeat,” Washington Post, August 12, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/12/afghanistan-taliban-biden-moment/↩
3. ^[3]Susannah George, “Pace of Taliban advance quickens as militants overrun three major cities in a single day,” Washington Post, August 8, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/08/taliban-kunduz/↩
4. ^[4]Tameem Akhgar and John Gambrell, “Taliban complete northeast Afghan blitz as more cities fall,” Associated Press, August 11, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-taliban-e2c0e7b46c03cebb4fdddca309e005e8; Al Jazeera, “Taliban seizes eighth Afghan provincial capital in five days,” August 10, 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/10/taliban-seizes-farah-seventh-provincial-afghan-capital-in-five-days; British Broadcasting Corporation, “Afghanistan war: Biden says he does not regret troop withdrawal,” August 11, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58167408; Deutschewelle, “Afghanistan: Taliban take control of Herat in major victory for militants,” August 12, 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/afghanistan-taliban-take-control-of-herat-in-major-victory-for-militants/a-58836723; Kathy Gannon and Tameem Akhgar, “US vows to isolate Taliban if they take power by force,” Associated Press, August 10, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-taliban-e5288f8c0a5d48677f703dbc40c22d3a; Susannah George, “Pace of Taliban advance quickens as militants overrun three major cities in a single day,” Washington Post, August 8, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/08/taliban-kunduz/; Susannah George et al., “Mass Afghan government surrenders as Taliban fighters overrun three key cities in sweeping territorial gains,” Washington Post, August 13, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/13/afghanistan-taliban-advance/; Liv Klingert, “Foreign minister: Germany won’t give aid to Afghanistan if Sharia law is enforced,” Politico, August 12, 2021, https://www.politico.eu/article/german-foreign-minister-germany-refuse-aid-afghanistan-enforcement-sharia-law-taliban-takeover/; Dan Lamothe et al., “U.S. officials warn collapse of Afghan capital could come sooner than expected,” Washington Post, August 10, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/08/10/afghanistan-intelligence-assessment/; Stephen Losey et al., “More US Troops Heading into Afghanistan as Taliban Conquest Approaches Tipping Point,” Military.com, August 12, 2021, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/08/12/more-us-troops-heading-afghanistan-taliban-conquest-approaches-tipping-point.html; Melissa Mahtani et al., “US to send troops to help evacuate personnel in Afghanistan, as Kandahar becomes latest city to fall,” CNN, August 13, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/webview/politics/live-news/afghanistan-taliban-us-troops-08-12-21/h_75f8d8c2a81923885b9a0fe6d7e00f7a; Akhtar Mohammad Makoii and Luke Harding, “Taliban capture sixth provincial capital in northern Afghanistan,” Guardian, August 9, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/taliban-capture-aibak-sixth-provincial-capital-northern-afghanistan; Roland Oliphant, “Will the Taliban take over Afghanistan? Here’s what we know so far,” Telegraph, August 13, 2021, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/08/13/will-taliban-take-afghanistan-know-far/; Reuters, “Taliban flashpoints in Afghanistan,” August 10, 2021, https://graphics.reuters.com/AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT/FLASHPOINTS/lbpgnrazjvq/index.html; Ishaan Tharoor, “Afghanistan’s rapid collapse is part of a long, slow U.S. defeat,” Washington Post, August 12, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/12/afghanistan-taliban-biden-moment/↩
5. ^[5]Roland Oliphant, “Will the Taliban take over Afghanistan? Here’s what we know so far,” Telegraph, August 13, 2021, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/08/13/will-taliban-take-afghanistan-know-far/↩
6. ^[6]Heiko Maas, quoted in Liv Klingert, “Foreign minister: Germany won’t give aid to Afghanistan if Sharia law is enforced,” Politico, August 12, 2021, https://www.politico.eu/article/german-foreign-minister-germany-refuse-aid-afghanistan-enforcement-sharia-law-taliban-takeover/↩
7. ^[7]Kathy Gannon and Tameem Akhgar, “US vows to isolate Taliban if they take power by force,” Associated Press, August 10, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-taliban-e5288f8c0a5d48677f703dbc40c22d3a↩
8. ^[8]Michael Evans and Hugh Tomlinson, “US abandoning Afghanistan to civil war, says General David Petraeus,” Times, August 2, 2021, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-abandoning-afghanistan-to-civil-war-says-general-david-petraeus-00ftvwpt3↩