Sound and fury on Brexit

The fundamentals remain the same. As I wrote earlier,

As a hard Brexit looms (nothing has changed here—it is still the legal default[1]), as Boris Johnson’s government keeps pedaling its bicycle at a brick wall,[2] and as plotters plot to prevent it but lack a certain path to do so,[3] there was a suggestion that a “humble petition” might be passed by Parliament asking the Queen to travel to Brussels to ask for an extension to the Brexit deadline.[4] “Earlier this week, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, threatened to send the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to Buckingham Palace ‘in a cab’ taxi to tell the Queen that the Opposition would be Labour is ‘taking over’ if Mr Johnson were to lose a no-confidence vote but refused to resign.”[5] (Would he bow?[6] Inquiring minds want to know.) It appears Her Majesty isn’t interested.[7][8]

But opposition to the seemingly all-but-certain hard Brexit is beginning to form up, if a bit late. “The House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow,” who previously achieved notoriety for blocking Theresa May’s third attempt to bring her deal up for a vote,[9] “has said he will ‘fight with every breath in my body’ to stop Boris Johnson from proroguing parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit without the consent of MPs.”[10] though that is still exactly what will happen unless Parliament actually gets its shit together.[11]

“In a sign that some Tory MPs are determined to block a no-deal Brexit, [Philip] Hammond appeared to blame Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s senior adviser, for making demands for a new deal that the EU ‘cannot and will not accede to’.” It appears Hammond leads a bloc of twenty,[12] which isn’t many, really, but could well be more than enough to be crucial: The Tory majority in Parliament is one,[13] so for Hammond’s bloc to vote with the opposition would be enough to stop Johnson from doing anything.

The trick here is that Johnson doesn’t have to do anything. A hard Brexit remains the legal default.[14] And when we’re talking about Parliamentary majorities, we’re talking about a Parliament that hasn’t been able to agree on anything on Brexit.[15] And the mechanisms available to stop a hard Brexit are uncertain.[16]

And, and, and . . . . There’s lots of sound and fury. But peering through the smoke, I still[17] don’t see a means to stop a calamity.[18]

  1. [1]Jack Maidment, “Brexit latest news: Theresa May’s deal defeated again by 58 votes – PM hints at general election to break deadlock,” Telegraph, March 29, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/29/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-final-push-mps-prepare-vote-withdrawal/; Peter Walker, “Could parliament’s latest amendment stop no-deal Brexit?” Guardian, July 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/could-parliaments-latest-amendment-stop-no-deal-brexit; Josh Wilson, “No-deal Brexit odds: Latest predictions on leaving the EU without a deal,” Telegraph, August 2, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/no-deal-brexit-odds-latest-predictions-leaving-eu-without-deal/
  2. [2]Karla Adam and William Booth, “Could Boris Johnson’s ‘no-deal’ Brexit break up the United Kingdom?” Washington Post, July 29, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/could-boris-johnsons-no-deal-brexit-crack-up-the-united-kingdom/2019/07/29/b871ebac-b1e6-11e9-acc8-1d847bacca73_story.html; David Benfell, “The Disunited Kingdom,” Not Housebroken, July 31, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/07/31/the-disunited-kingdom/; David Benfell, “Boris Johnson might think he’s playing poker with the European Union, but he’s actually playing ‘chicken’—with a brick wall,” Not Housebroken, August 2, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/08/02/boris-johnson-might-think-hes-playing-poker-with-the-european-union-but-hes-actually-playing-chicken-with-a-brick-wall/; David Benfell, “The hatless mad hatters,” Not Housebroken, August 4, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/08/04/the-hatless-mad-hatters/; Daniel Boffey and Rowena Mason, “Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating Brexit deal, EU told,” Guardian, August 5, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told; British Broadcasting Corporation, “Irish deputy PM Coveney: No deal Brexit would mean customs checks in Ireland,” July 21, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-49062367/irish-deputy-pm-coveney-no-deal-brexit-would-mean-customs-checks-in-ireland; Amanda Ferguson and William Booth, “Northern Ireland’s politicians don’t agree on much. Except that Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit would be a disaster,” Washington Post, July 31, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/northern-irelands-politicians-dont-agree-on-much-except-that-boris-johnsons-no-deal-brexit-would-be-a-disaster/2019/07/31/c209affa-b2eb-11e9-acc8-1d847bacca73_story.html; Gwynne Dyer, “Boris Johnson is quite possibly the last prime minister of the United Kingdom,” Hamilton Spectator, July 24, 2019, https://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/9515926-gwynne-dyer-boris-johnson-is-quite-possibly-the-last-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/; Peter Foster and Camilla Tominey, “Boris Johnson warned that ‘no deal’ Brexit will require return of ‘direct rule’ in Northern Ireland,” Telegraph, July 26, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/26/boris-johnson-warned-no-deal-brexit-will-require-return-direct/; Nick Hopkins, “UK less able to cope with hard Brexit than it was in spring, say officials,” Guardian, August 1, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/uk-less-able-to-cope-with-hard-brexit-than-in-spring-say-officials; Conor Humphries, “Irish PM says hard Brexit would raise issue of Irish unification,” Telegraph, July 27, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-nireland-idUSKCN1UL280; Steven Morris, “No-deal Brexit would endanger rural life, says Welsh leader,” Guardian, July 30, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/no-deal-brexit-would-endanger-rural-way-of-life-says-welsh-leader; Lisa O’Carroll and Rowena Mason, “Johnson told no-deal Brexit will crush domestic policy plans,” Guardian, July 28, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/28/boris-johnson-ifg-no-deal-brexit-crush-domestic-policy-plans; Anna Mikhailova et al, “Michel Barnier rejects Boris Johnson’s ‘unacceptable’ Brexit plan,” Telegraph, July 25, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/25/boris-johnson-new-prime-minister-cabinet-parliament-brexit-latest/; Séamas O’Reilly, “Hard Brexiters’ stance on the Irish border is nonsense – I can tell you, I grew up there,” Guardian, August 7, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/07/northern-ireland-hard-border-brexit-customs; Andrew Sentance and David Blanchflower, “‘No-deal Brexit talk has hit home hard’ – two experts debate the data,” Guardian, July 31, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/31/no-deal-brexit-talk-has-hit-home-hard-two-experts-debate-the-data; Heather Stewart, Lisa O’Carroll, and Daniel Boffey, “Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal,” Guardian, July 25, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal; Tim Wallace, “‘Very real’ recession risk as economy contracts for first time in seven years,” Telegraph, August 9, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/09/recession-risk-now-real-economy-contracts-first-time-seven-years/
  3. [3]David Benfell, “Okay, so really now, assuming they choose to do so, how do the British avoid a hard Brexit?” Not Housebroken, July 26, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/07/26/okay-so-really-now-assuming-they-choose-to-do-so-how-do-the-british-avoid-a-hard-brexit/; Edward Malnick, “Dominic Cummings tells MPs: you’ve missed your chance to stop no-deal Brexit,” Telegraph, August 3, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/03/dominic-cummings-tells-mps-missed-chance-stop-no-deal-brexit/; Oliver Wright, “Could Brexit rebels scupper conference season?” Times, August 8, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/could-brexit-rebels-scupper-conference-season-q7hqdh9w0
  4. [4]Nicholas Watt, “Brexit: Scheme to block no deal ‘could involve Queen,’” British Broadcasting Corporation, July 18, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49040128
  5. [5]Christopher Hope and Harry Yorke, “Buckingham Palace and Downing Street plan to keep the Queen out of looming constitutional crisis over Brexit,” Telegraph, August 9, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/09/buckingham-palace-downing-street-plan-keep-queen-looming-constitutional/
  6. [6]Alex Finnis, “Why Jeremy Corbyn was actually correct not to bow to the Queen,” ShortList, June 22, 2017, https://www.shortlist.com/news/why-jeremy-corbyn-was-actually-correct-not-to-bow-to-the-queen
  7. [7]Christopher Hope and Harry Yorke, “Buckingham Palace and Downing Street plan to keep the Queen out of looming constitutional crisis over Brexit,” Telegraph, August 9, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/09/buckingham-palace-downing-street-plan-keep-queen-looming-constitutional/
  8. [8]David Benfell, “A bicycle on a steep downward slope towards a brick wall,” Not Housebroken, August 10, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/08/10/a-bicycle-on-a-steep-downward-slope-towards-a-brick-wall/
  9. [9]Gordon Rayner, “John Bercow row: Tory MPs plot to dock Speaker’s pay or axe his pension over Brexit intervention,” Telegraph, January 10, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/09/john-bercow-takes-control-brexit-critics-warn-unprecedented/
  10. [10]Jessica Elgot, “Bercow will ‘fight’ to stop Johnson closing
    parliament for no deal,” Guardian, August 13, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/13/bercow-will-fight-to-stop-johnson-closing-parliament-for-no-deal
  11. [11]Jack Maidment, “Brexit latest news: Theresa May’s deal defeated again by 58 votes – PM hints at general election to break deadlock,” Telegraph, March 29, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/29/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-final-push-mps-prepare-vote-withdrawal/; Peter Walker, “Could parliament’s latest amendment stop no-deal Brexit?” Guardian, July 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/could-parliaments-latest-amendment-stop-no-deal-brexit; Josh Wilson, “No-deal Brexit odds: Latest predictions on leaving the EU without a deal,” Telegraph, August 2, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/no-deal-brexit-odds-latest-predictions-leaving-eu-without-deal/
  12. [12]Rowena Mason and Jessica Elgot, “No-deal Brexit would be a betrayal, says Philip Hammond,” Guardian, August 14, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/13/no-deal-brexit-would-be-a-betrayal-says-philip-hammond
  13. [13]Steven Morris, “Lib Dems win Brecon and Radnorshire byelection, cutting Johnson Commons majority to one,” Guardian, August 2, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-lib-dems-jane-dodds-win-cuts-johnson-commons-majority-to-one
  14. [14]Jack Maidment, “Brexit latest news: Theresa May’s deal defeated again by 58 votes – PM hints at general election to break deadlock,” Telegraph, March 29, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/29/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-final-push-mps-prepare-vote-withdrawal/; Peter Walker, “Could parliament’s latest amendment stop no-deal Brexit?” Guardian, July 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/could-parliaments-latest-amendment-stop-no-deal-brexit; Josh Wilson, “No-deal Brexit odds: Latest predictions on leaving the EU without a deal,” Telegraph, August 2, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/no-deal-brexit-odds-latest-predictions-leaving-eu-without-deal/
  15. [15]Heather Stewart, Jessica Elgot, and Rowena Mason, “Brexit: May calls for cabinet showdown as MPs reject all options,” Guardian, April 2, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/01/brexit-deadlock-continues-as-mps-fail-to-find-compromise
  16. [16]David Benfell, “Okay, so really now, assuming they choose to do so, how do the British avoid a hard Brexit?” Not Housebroken, July 26, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/07/26/okay-so-really-now-assuming-they-choose-to-do-so-how-do-the-british-avoid-a-hard-brexit/; Edward Malnick, “Dominic Cummings tells MPs: you’ve missed your chance to stop no-deal Brexit,” Telegraph, August 3, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/03/dominic-cummings-tells-mps-missed-chance-stop-no-deal-brexit/; Peter Walker, “MPs opposing no-deal Brexit will ‘need new tactics’, report says,” Guardian, August 11, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/11/mps-opposing-no-deal-brexit-will-need-new-tactics-report-says; Oliver Wright, “Could Brexit rebels scupper conference season?” Times, August 8, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/could-brexit-rebels-scupper-conference-season-q7hqdh9w0
  17. [17]David Benfell, “A bicycle on a steep downward slope towards a brick wall,” Not Housebroken, August 10, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/08/10/a-bicycle-on-a-steep-downward-slope-towards-a-brick-wall/
  18. [18]David Benfell, “Boris Johnson might think he’s playing poker with the European Union, but he’s actually playing ‘chicken’—with a brick wall,” Not Housebroken, August 2, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/08/02/boris-johnson-might-think-hes-playing-poker-with-the-european-union-but-hes-actually-playing-chicken-with-a-brick-wall/

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