The Disunited Kingdom

So, recently, I wrote:

[Boris] Johnson affirmed a commitment to the Good Friday agreement, which mostly brought an end to “the troubles,” sectarian violence between Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland.[1] But “no deal” may mean Johnson is compelled to shred that agreement by restoring direct rule in Northern Ireland[2] and the Irish prime minister said that the question of Irish unification would inevitably arise.[3]

Scottish politicians, who came up a long ways short in their first attempt,[4] are seeking a second referendum on independence.[5] [Gwynne] Dyer notes of Scots that “TWO-THIRDS [emphasis in original] . . . voted Remain.”[6]

Scottish and Northern Irish secession would leave England, Wales, and, apparently, a very disappointed queen.[7][8]


I need to amend that. The First Minister of Wales isn’t threatening secession, exactly, but warns that the rural way of life is threatened by a hard Brexit and that, in Wales, the sector is capable of causing considerable unrest:[9]

There’s a lot of debate about democratic legitimacy and respecting referendums. There’s a democratic issue here for an incoming prime minister where no deal was never on any ballot paper and where in Scotland and Wales his party has not won a majority of seats in any form of election in living memory.

The prime minister needs to think about the future of the United Kingdom in genuinely serious way. Just a few more choruses of Rule Britannia and an extra supply of union jacks is not going to cut it.[10]

A Brexiteer premise has been that Theresa May was not tough enough in negotiating with the European Union, that they could secure a better deal. Boris Johnson has repeatedly claimed a willingness to negotiate such a deal but insists that the Irish backstop be dropped,[11] which would threaten the integrity of the European Union[12] and which it therefore cannot agree to and will not agree to.

Another Brexiteer premise has been that Brexit would free the United Kingdom to make a trade deal with the United States. But the U.S. is a guarantor of the Good Friday agreement and Congress appears to be taking that responsibility seriously as even Donald Trump’s allies declared any such deal dead in the event of a hard Irish border.[13]

So, on the Brexiteer side, there’s a certain sense that this is all a game of “chicken” and that Johnson just needs to keep pedaling his bicycle at the E.U. bicycle and the E.U. side will eventually turn away, conceding the “game” and conceding the backstop. But indeed there is absolutely no evidence that the E.U. side is likewise riding a bicycle toward Johnson, that they are even willing to engage in negotiations on this point. Rather, the opposite, as the E.U. has repeatedly said the withdrawal agreement is not up for renegotiation. And with no trade deal with either the E.U.[14] or the U.S. in prospect,[15] the more apt analogy would be Johnson pedaling his bicycle at a brick wall.

Unfortunately, that bicycle is the United Kingdom.[16]

I’m thinking of lyrics from Kenny Rogers’ great song “The Gambler”:

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run[17]

Brexiteers should heed the advice.

  1. [1]Heather Stewart, Lisa O’Carroll, and Daniel Boffey, “Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal,” Guardian, July 25, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal
  2. [2]Peter Foster and Camilla Tominey, “Boris Johnson warned that ‘no deal’ Brexit will require return of ‘direct rule’ in Northern Ireland,” Telegraph, July 26, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/26/boris-johnson-warned-no-deal-brexit-will-require-return-direct/
  3. [3]Peter Foster and Camilla Tominey, “Boris Johnson warned that ‘no deal’ Brexit will require return of ‘direct rule’ in Northern Ireland,” Telegraph, July 26, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/26/boris-johnson-warned-no-deal-brexit-will-require-return-direct/
  4. [4]British Broadcasting Corporation, “Scottish referendum: Scotland votes ‘No’ to independence,” September 19, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29270441
  5. [5]Anna Mikhailova et al, “Michel Barnier rejects Boris Johnson’s ‘unacceptable’ Brexit plan,” Telegraph, July 25, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/25/boris-johnson-new-prime-minister-cabinet-parliament-brexit-latest/
  6. [6]Gwynne Dyer, “Boris Johnson is quite possibly the last prime minister of the United Kingdom,” Hamilton Spectator, July 24, 2019, https://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/9515926-gwynne-dyer-boris-johnson-is-quite-possibly-the-last-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/
  7. [7]British Broadcasting Corporation, “Scottish referendum: Scotland votes ‘No’ to independence,” September 19, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29270441
  8. [8]David Benfell, “Ramifications,” Irregular Bullshit, July 27, 2019, https://disunitedstates.com/2019/07/27/ramifications/
  9. [9]Mark Drakeford, quoted in Steven Morris, “No-deal Brexit would endanger rural life, says Welsh leader,” Guardian, July 30, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/no-deal-brexit-would-endanger-rural-way-of-life-says-welsh-leader
  10. [10]Mark Drakeford, quoted in Steven Morris, “No-deal Brexit would endanger rural life, says Welsh leader,” Guardian, July 30, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/no-deal-brexit-would-endanger-rural-way-of-life-says-welsh-leader
  11. [11]Anna Mikhailova et al, “Michel Barnier rejects Boris Johnson’s ‘unacceptable’ Brexit plan,” Telegraph, July 25, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/25/boris-johnson-new-prime-minister-cabinet-parliament-brexit-latest/; Siobhán O’Grady, “Why Boris Johnson is already clashing with Ireland over Brexit,” Washington Post, July 30, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/07/30/why-boris-johnson-is-already-clashing-with-ireland-over-brexit/; Heather Stewart, Lisa O’Carroll, and Daniel Boffey, “Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal,” Guardian, July 25, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal
  12. [12]Daniel Boffey, “However you look at it, the logic of a Brexit backstop refuses to yield,” Guardian, June 24, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/24/however-look-logic-brexit-backstop-refuses-to-yield-irish
  13. [13]Boer Deng and Oliver Wright, “Congress warns that Irish border is key to trade deal with US,” Times, July 31, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/us-warns-that-irish-border-is-key-to-trade-deal-x2fhrclvq
  14. [14]Anna Mikhailova et al, “Michel Barnier rejects Boris Johnson’s ‘unacceptable’ Brexit plan,” Telegraph, July 25, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/25/boris-johnson-new-prime-minister-cabinet-parliament-brexit-latest/; Siobhán O’Grady, “Why Boris Johnson is already clashing with Ireland over Brexit,” Washington Post, July 30, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/07/30/why-boris-johnson-is-already-clashing-with-ireland-over-brexit/; Heather Stewart, Lisa O’Carroll, and Daniel Boffey, “Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal,” Guardian, July 25, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal
  15. [15]Boer Deng and Oliver Wright, “Congress warns that Irish border is key to trade deal with US,” Times, July 31, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/us-warns-that-irish-border-is-key-to-trade-deal-x2fhrclvq
  16. [16]Andrew Sentance and David Blanchflower, “‘No-deal Brexit talk has hit home hard’ – two experts debate the data,” Guardian, July 31, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/31/no-deal-brexit-talk-has-hit-home-hard-two-experts-debate-the-data
  17. [17]Google search results.

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