Okay, so really now, assuming they choose to do so, how do the British avoid a hard Brexit?

A while ago, I wrote that Parliament couldn’t solve Brexit, that the British people would have to.[1] It didn’t seem likely that changing prime ministers would change anything and it hasn’t.[2] Now I think it’s too late.

Outlining his Brexit stance to MPs on Thursday, [Boris] Johnson said he was ready to “negotiate in good faith” to find an alternative to the Irish backstop.

“I do not accept the argument that says that these issues can only be solved by all or part of the UK remaining in the customs union or in the single market,” he said. “The evidence is that other arrangements are perfectly possible, and are also perfectly compatible with the Belfast or Good Friday agreement, to which we are of course steadfastly committed.”[3]

Um, no. The evidence is rather the other way around. There is no alternative to the backstop.[4] What we have here is nothing more than magical thinking.

Speculation was rife in Westminster on Thursday night that [Boris Johnson’s] plan was to threaten a No Deal knowing Parliament would try to block it.

That would give him an excuse to call a snap election to boost the Tories’ majority of just two.[5]

The assumption seems now to be that Britain is headed for a general election.[6] Not knowing any better—extrapolating from the one election to the other is hazardous[7]—I would expect a similar result to the European Parliament elections earlier this year.[8] Which is why Nigel Farage, with his (hard) Brexit party, must be licking his lips.[9] I think also that the remainer (neo)Liberal Democrats will do well.[10]

Assuming that Boris Johnson maintains his opposition to a snap general election, there’s reason to doubt such an election could practically occur in time to avert[11] the legal default, which is, as it has been, “no deal.”[12] Having failed to pass a motion of no confidence by yesterday (July 25), it now appears the soonest a general election could occur would be October 24. That would allow exactly one week for a new majority to act before Brexit day, October 31. If that motion passed immediately on Parliament’s return from its summer recess and if Johnson, who has some control over the timing, doesn’t delay.[13]

I just don’t think things can move that fast and I suspect that Tories would be reluctant to support an election—calling an early election without the vote of no confidence requires a 66 percent supermajority in Parliament[14]—they would likely lose even if Johnson reversed his position on such an election.[15]

More sensible, albeit highly controversial,[16] I think, would be a second referendum. It should offer three options with a plurality prevailing: 1) Remain, 2) Leave with the deal Theresa May negotiated, and 3) Leave with no deal. But that requires a couple things which are in short supply: 1) non-magical thinking, and 2) honesty. And we don’t really know that these are any more prevalent among the electorate than they are the politicians.

I think whoever so usefully impersonates Richard Nixon on Twitter has a point. (And yes, s/he has said it before.)

  1. [1]David Benfell, “About Brexit,” Not Housebroken, May 7, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/05/07/about-brexit/
  2. [2]Peter Foster and James Rothwell, “Tepid Barnier welcomes Boris Johnson as EU takes ‘wait and see’ approach to Brexit talks,” Telegraph, July 23, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/23/tepid-barnier-welcomes-boris-johnson-eu-takes-wait-see-approach/; Jack Maidment, “Brexit latest news: Theresa May’s deal defeated again by
    58 votes – PM hints at general election to break deadlock,” Telegraph, March 29, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/29/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-final-push-mps-prepare-vote-withdrawal/; Anna Mikhailova et al, “Michel Barnier rejects Boris Johnson’s ‘unacceptable’ Brexit plan,” Telegraph, July 25, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/25/boris-johnson-new-prime-minister-cabinet-parliament-brexit-latest/; Heather Stewart, Lisa O’Carroll, and Daniel Boffey, “Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal,” Guardian, July 25, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal; Rajeev Syal, “‘Summer’s day massacre’ may spell backbench trouble for Boris Johnson,” Guardian, July 24, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/24/philip-hammond-quits-johnson-fully-aligned-chancellor-gauke-stewart; Ishaan Tharoor, “Boris Johnson’s rise could be a preamble to his fall,” Washington Post, July 23, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/07/23/boris-johnsons-rise-could-be-preamble-his-fall/; Peter Walker, “Could parliament’s latest amendment stop no-deal Brexit?” Guardian, July 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/could-parliaments-latest-amendment-stop-no-deal-brexit
  3. [3]Heather Stewart, Lisa O’Carroll, and Daniel Boffey, “Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal,” Guardian, July 25, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal
  4. [4]Daniel Boffey, “However you look at it, the logic of a Brexit backstop refuses to yield,” Guardian, June 24, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/24/however-look-logic-brexit-backstop-refuses-to-yield-irish
  5. [5]Tom Newton Dunn and Nick Gutteridge, “PM Boris goes on the attack against EU and Corbyn on Commons debut,” Sun, July 26, 2019, https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9586864/pm-boris-goes-on-the-attack-against-eu-and-corbyn-on-commons-debut/
  6. [6]Heather Stewart, Lisa O’Carroll, and Daniel Boffey, “Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal,” Guardian, July 25, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal
  7. [7]Sam Knight, “The Alarming Return of Nigel Farage,” New Yorker, May 21, 2019, https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/the-alarming-return-of-nigel-farage
  8. [8]British Broadcasting Corporation, “European elections 2019: Brexit Party dominates as Tories and Labour suffer,” May 27, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48417228
  9. [9]Sam Knight, “The Alarming Return of Nigel Farage,” New Yorker, May 21, 2019, https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-uk/the-alarming-return-of-nigel-farage
  10. [10]Michael Savage, “Labour panics as remain voters switch to Liberal Democrats,” Guardian, May 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/18/labour-panic-remain-voters-switch-to-lib-dems
  11. [11]Tom Edgington, “Could there be an early general election?” British Broadcasting Corporation, July 23, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49004486
  12. [12]Jack Maidment, “Brexit latest news: Theresa May’s deal defeated again by
    58 votes – PM hints at general election to break deadlock,” Telegraph, March 29, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/29/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-final-push-mps-prepare-vote-withdrawal/; Peter Walker, “Could parliament’s latest amendment stop no-deal Brexit?” Guardian, July 18, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/could-parliaments-latest-amendment-stop-no-deal-brexit
  13. [13]Tom Edgington, “Could there be an early general election?” British Broadcasting Corporation, July 23, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49004486
  14. [14]Tom Edgington, “Could there be an early general election?” British Broadcasting Corporation, July 23, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49004486
  15. [15]Michael Savage and Toby Helm, “Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit plan ‘will trigger early election,’” Guardian, June 15, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/15/boris-johnson-no-deal-brexit-plan-will-trigger-early-election
  16. [16]William Booth, Karla Adam, and Michael Birnbaum, “British Parliament votes to delay Brexit, rejects a second referendum for now,” Washington Post,
    March 14, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/brexit-vote-delay-and-second-referendum/2019/03/14/d97ffdd8-4405-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html; Katy Collin, “Could there be a second Brexit referendum?” Washington Post, March 12, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/03/12/could-there-be-second-brexit-referendum/; Rowena Mason and Jessica Elgot, “Corbyn backs referendum on Brexit deal after EU election exodus,” Guardian, May 28, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/jeremy-corbyn-signals-more-support-for-second-referendum-after-voter-exodus

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