Criminal Foolishness in Iraq

benfell

Update, June 12, 2015: Apparently the Obama administration is considering even further escalations in Iraq.[1]

Peter Feaver writes of Obama administration strategy against the Islamic State,

The problem is not an absence of strategy, it is that the strategy that does exist is failing and the administration is not yet willing to admit that fact.

The strategy is pretty self-evident: U.S. forces are operating under stringent self-imposed limitations so as to incentivize local partners (the Iraqi government, Sunni tribes, and moderate rebels in Syria) to do more. The United States is prepared perhaps to do a bit more if local actors do a lot more, but if local actors do not step up, the United States is not prepared to do more. On the contrary, the United States is prepared to accept hitherto “unacceptable” setbacks — the fall of Mosul, the fall of Ramadi, the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime, the regional expansion of Iranian-backed terrorist organizations and militias, and on and on — rather than intervene more decisively.

This is a recognizable strategy. There is even a catchy name for it: leading from behind.[2]

But Iraq is increasingly viewed as a failed state.[3] Predictions of an Iraqi breakup[4] are fundamentally a recognition that the state attracts less loyalty than does ethnicity. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki displayed that loyalty—to Shi’ite Islam rather than to the country he putatively led—and was roundly criticized for it.[5]

Maliki lost Sunni Iraq through his sectarian and authoritarian policies. His repeated refusal over long years to strike an urgently needed political accord with the Sunni minority, his construction of corrupt, ineffective and sectarian state institutions, and his heavy-handed military repression in those areas are the key factors in the long-developing disintegration of Iraq.[6]

Current Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi rightly points out that many Islamic State fighters come from abroad. “‘The problem is not exclusively in Iraq. We are trying to do our part, but Daesh was not created in Iraq,’ he said, referring to Islamic State by its mildly derogatory Arabic acronym.” He also said “he was confident that the appeal to the Sunni tribes [to fight the Islamic State] was ‘on track’,”[7] but continuing setbacks in the war against the Islamic State have led Barack Obama to send more troops—military advisors— to

focus on training Sunni fighters with the Iraqi Army. The official called the coming announcement “an adjustment to try to get the right training to the right folks.”

The troops will set up the training center primarily to advise and assist Iraqi security forces and to engage and reach out to Sunni tribes in Anbar, a senior United States official said. The focus for the Americans will be to try to accelerate the integration of Sunni fighters into the Iraqi Army, which is dominated by Shiites. That will be an uphill task as many of the Sunni fighters in the area do not trust the Iraqi Army.

But the Obama administration hopes that the outreach will reduce the Iraqi military’s reliance on Shiite militias to take back territory from the Islamic State.[8]

Which is to say that notwithstanding administration hopes that Sunnis want to fight for a regime and in a military they clearly do not trust, the additional U.S. advisors Obama has announced he is sending in—they will now total 3,550—are going in to encourage and train a reluctant defense.[9] An analogy with Vietnam is probably inaccurate but will be close enough that anyone who remembers the escalation of “military advisors” in that war will consider this development an ominous sign. Worse is a sense of endlessness and futility. Even apart from Feaver’s critique,[10] this is not a strategy that is working.[11]

Part of this is surely that the U.S. military seemingly cannot defeat an insurgency.[12] Some of it is the hubris of thinking the U.S. can accomplish ‘regime change.’[13] And some of it is just that the U.S. just isn’t winning.[14]

But that’s where Feaver is arguably wrong in claiming that Obama has a strategy, albeit a failing one.[15] A strategic approach would recognize that U.S. tactics are not only criminal, but are failing, and not just in Iraq.

  1. [1]Peter Baker, Helene Cooper, and Michael R. Gordon, “Obama Looks at Adding Bases and Troops in Iraq, to Fight ISIS,” New York Times, June 11, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-isis-us-military-bases-martin-e-dempsey.html↩
  2. [2]Peter D. Feaver, “Obama’s Problem with ISIS Isn’t an Incomplete Strategy — It’s a Failing One,” Foreign Policy, June 9, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/09/obamas-problem-with-isis-isnt-an-incomplete-strategy-its-a-failing-one/↩
  3. [3]Mustapha Ajbaili, “Maliki’s sectarian policy backfires in dramatic style,” Al Arabiya, June 12, 2014, http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2014/06/12/Maliki-s-sectarian-policy-backfires-in-dramatic-style.html; Aaron David Miller, “Middle East Meltdown,” Foreign Policy, October 30, 2014, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/10/31/netanyahu_s_not_chickenshit_israel_united_states_special_relationship_obama↩
  4. [4]Steven A. Cook, “A Requiem for Iraq,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 17, 2014, http://blogs.cfr.org/cook/2014/06/17/a-requiem-for-iraq/; Robin Wright, “A Third Iraq War?” New Yorker, June 18, 2014, http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2014/06/a-third-iraq-war.html↩
  5. [5]Mustapha Ajbaili, “Maliki’s sectarian policy backfires in dramatic style,” Al Arabiya, June 12, 2014, http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2014/06/12/Maliki-s-sectarian-policy-backfires-in-dramatic-style.html; Zack Beauchamp, “Al-Qaeda kicked this group out for being too vicious. On Tuesday, they conquered Iraq’s second-largest city,” Vox, June 11, 2014, http://www.vox.com/2014/6/11/5800188/who-is-isis-how-they-conquered-mosul; Fred Kaplan, “If jihadists control Iraq, blame Nouri al-Maliki, not the United States,” Slate, June 11, 2014, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2014/06/mosul_s_collapse_is_nouri_al_maliki_s_fault_iraq_s_prime_minister_failed.2.html; Aaron David Miller, “Middle East Meltdown,” Foreign Policy, October 30, 2014, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/10/31/netanyahu_s_not_chickenshit_israel_united_states_special_relationship_obama; Nigel Morris, “Tony Blair Iraq comments: Senior Labour figures distance themselves from former PM after he refuses to accept blame for new crisis,” Independent, June 16, 2014, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-iraq-comments-senior-labour-figures-distance-themselves-from-former-pm-after-he-refuses-to-accept-blame-for-new-crisis-9538591.html; ↩
  6. [6]Marc Lynch, “How can the U.S. help Maliki when Maliki’s the problem?” Washington Post, June 12, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/06/12/iraq-trapped-between-isis-and-maliki/↩
  7. [7]John Irish, “Iraq PM says allies not doing enough to counter Islamic State,” Reuters, June 2, 2015, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/02/uk-mideast-crisis-abadi-idUKKBN0OI0O220150602↩
  8. [8]Michael R. Gordon and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “U.S. Embracing a New Approach on Battling ISIS in Iraq,” New York Times, June 10, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/11/world/middleeast/us-embracing-a-new-approach-on-battling-isis-in-iraq.html↩
  9. [9]Michael R. Gordon and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, “U.S. Embracing a New Approach on Battling ISIS in Iraq,” New York Times, June 10, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/11/world/middleeast/us-embracing-a-new-approach-on-battling-isis-in-iraq.html↩
  10. [10]Peter D. Feaver, “Obama’s Problem with ISIS Isn’t an Incomplete Strategy — It’s a Failing One,” Foreign Policy, June 9, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/09/obamas-problem-with-isis-isnt-an-incomplete-strategy-its-a-failing-one/↩
  11. [11]Ryan Goodman, “Obama’s Forever War Starts Now,” Just Security, February 12, 2015, http://justsecurity.org/20021/obamas-war-starts/; Katrina vanden Heuvel, “Obama reneges on his foreign-policy promises,” Washington Post, September 16, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/katrina-vanden-heuvel-obama-reneges-on-his-foreign-policy-promises/2014/09/16/7490e1ee-3d0c-11e4-b0ea-8141703bbf6f_story.html; Eugene Robinson, “The Islamic State fight is turning into a ‘dumb’ war,” Washington Post, October 23, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-fighting-the-islamic-state-is-starting-to-look-more-like-a-dumb-war/2014/10/23/13492d64-5aea-11e4-b812-38518ae74c67_story.html↩
  12. [12]Dominic Tierney, “Why Has America Stopped Winning Wars?” Atlantic, June 2, 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/06/america-win-loss-iraq-afghanistan/394559/↩
  13. [13]Washingtons Blog, “3-Star General: We’ve Lost the Wars In Iraq & Afghanistan,” Big Picture, November 27, 2014, http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/11/3-star-general-weve-lost-the-wars-in-iraq-afghanistan/↩
  14. [14]Washington’s Blog, “Since 9/11, The U.S. Has Been Involved In More Than 5 Wars … And They’ve All Been Disasters,” February 20, 2015, http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/since-911-u-s-5-wars-theyve-disasters.html↩
  15. [15]Peter D. Feaver, “Obama’s Problem with ISIS Isn’t an Incomplete Strategy — It’s a Failing One,” Foreign Policy, June 9, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/09/obamas-problem-with-isis-isnt-an-incomplete-strategy-its-a-failing-one/↩

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